| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.810719755145697 |
| beta | 0.0270743628961957 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 5 | 1795 | 1689.328125 | 105.671875 |
| 6 | 1942.5 | 1917.28661978457 | 25.2133802154292 |
| 7 | 2100 | 2098.31925003562 | 1.68074996438372 |
| 8 | 2072.5 | 2019.24790404415 | 53.2520959558497 |
| 9 | 2075 | 2101.53193406296 | -26.5319340629635 |
| 10 | 2278 | 2208.25780428624 | 69.7421957137612 |
| 11 | 2451 | 2423.09077673435 | 27.9092232656494 |
| 12 | 2290.5 | 2377.77473067507 | -87.2747306750698 |
| 13 | 2388 | 2330.67474234405 | 57.3252576559544 |
| 14 | 2574.5 | 2525.09412417753 | 49.4058758224719 |
| 15 | 2939.5 | 2716.56154734532 | 222.938452654677 |
| 16 | 2924 | 2812.87800279208 | 111.121997207916 |
| 17 | 3087.5 | 2963.66733452015 | 123.832665479853 |
| 18 | 3259.5 | 3221.64167445504 | 37.8583255449616 |
| 19 | 3474.5 | 3447.47516486471 | 27.0248351352889 |
| 20 | 3376 | 3370.37729074632 | 5.62270925367966 |
| 21 | 3496 | 3442.30782058312 | 53.6921794168752 |
| 22 | 3771.5 | 3629.87075123152 | 141.629248768475 |
| 23 | 3743 | 3942.78666870311 | -199.786668703113 |
| 24 | 3474.5 | 3677.78263421701 | -203.282634217008 |
| 25 | 3405 | 3584.88806836988 | -179.888068369879 |
| 26 | 3684.5 | 3590.04059864827 | 94.4594013517303 |
| 27 | 3804 | 3789.3693064359 | 14.6306935640951 |
| 28 | 3470.5 | 3691.51995334663 | -221.019953346633 |
| 29 | 3453.5 | 3582.26819959498 | -128.768199594983 |
| 30 | 3842 | 3675.50991842899 | 166.490081571009 |
| 31 | 4156.5 | 3914.42312242984 | 242.07687757016 |
| 32 | 4055 | 3957.65505018789 | 97.3449498121072 |
| 33 | 4133.5 | 4132.24764645417 | 1.25235354582946 |
| 34 | 4552 | 4397.91827003974 | 154.081729960262 |
| 35 | 4588 | 4651.93861965224 | -63.938619652241 |
| 36 | 4423.5 | 4423.82564310166 | -0.325643101657988 |
| 37 | 4462.5 | 4503.04528719008 | -40.5452871900779 |
| 38 | 4846 | 4764.83883009864 | 81.161169901362 |
| 39 | 4869.5 | 4917.95502061655 | -48.4550206165504 |
| 40 | 4637 | 4714.25636879839 | -77.2563687983939 |
| 41 | 4841 | 4721.62614708736 | 119.373852912643 |
| 42 | 5114.5 | 5137.74828196841 | -23.2482819684083 |
| 43 | 5374.5 | 5181.03448249647 | 193.465517503534 |
| 44 | 5166.5 | 5172.6747516965 | -6.17475169649697 |
| 45 | 5236.5 | 5281.11092718716 | -44.6109271871574 |
| 46 | 5740.5 | 5539.91329801628 | 200.586701983723 |
| 47 | 5992 | 5813.22118770052 | 178.77881229948 |
| 48 | 5842 | 5762.37893148323 | 79.6210685167725 |
| 49 | 5844.5 | 5942.1916945926 | -97.6916945926014 |
| 50 | 6384.5 | 6212.30182789854 | 172.198172101459 |
| 51 | 6487 | 6465.77397452557 | 21.2260254744342 |
| 52 | 6372 | 6272.28092147443 | 99.7190785255725 |
| 53 | 6583.5 | 6439.11584277528 | 144.384157224724 |
| 54 | 6990 | 6966.17007647399 | 23.8299235260138 |
| 55 | 6874 | 7077.12807145357 | -203.128071453571 |
| 56 | 6710 | 6718.02635776379 | -8.02635776379066 |
| 57 | 6924 | 6805.02161370829 | 118.978386291712 |
| 58 | 7428.5 | 7287.16017390164 | 141.339826098359 |
| 59 | 7415.5 | 7451.50623477746 | -36.0062347774556 |
| 60 | 7228.5 | 7269.5698047172 | -41.0698047171982 |
| 61 | 6734 | 7357.8376890354 | -623.837689035397 |
| 62 | 7158.5 | 7229.71067036541 | -71.2106703654063 |
| 63 | 7192 | 7171.22182394215 | 20.7781760578528 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 64 | 7018.66169071592 | 6745.87680119853 | 7291.4465802333 |
| 65 | 7015.11918691415 | 6660.14874164757 | 7370.08963218073 |
| 66 | 7496.24410498433 | 7071.56503806153 | 7920.92317190714 |
| 67 | 7513.35490234274 | 7025.98627787024 | 8000.72352681525 |
| 68 | 7340.01659305866 | 6769.42050593205 | 7910.61268018527 |
| 69 | 7336.47408925689 | 6713.07533059207 | 7959.87284792172 |
| 70 | 7817.59900732708 | 7143.27356066188 | 8491.92445399227 |
| 71 | 7834.70980468549 | 7110.88801491089 | 8558.53159446008 |
| 72 | 7661.3714954014 | 6869.69160463331 | 8453.05138616949 |
| 73 | 7657.82899159964 | 6819.73347872579 | 8495.92450447348 |
| 74 | 8138.95390966982 | 7254.99655082524 | 9022.9112685144 |
| 75 | 8156.06470702823 | 7226.67871526948 | 9085.45069878698 |
| 76 | 7982.72639774415 | 6991.49889593806 | 8973.95389955023 |
| 77 | 7979.18389394238 | 6943.84474845592 | 9014.52303942884 |
| 78 | 8460.30881201256 | 7380.98558768687 | 9539.63203633826 |
| 79 | 8477.41960937097 | 7354.19296657999 | 9600.64625216195 |
| 80 | 8304.08130008689 | 7121.9249959988 | 9486.23760417499 |
| 81 | 8300.53879628512 | 7075.06579180177 | 9526.01180076848 |
