Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[104])
92	5480	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	5565	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	5500	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
95	5280	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
96	5135	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
97	5050	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
98	5100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
99	5070	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
100	5115	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
101	5140	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
102	5330	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
103	5080	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
104	5285	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
105	5405	5400.5996	5298.6415	5500.6681	0.4657	0.9882	6e-04	0.9882
106	5385	5364.2599	5228.7823	5496.3993	0.3792	0.2728	0.022	0.8801
107	5255	5238.0165	5062.8021	5407.5566	0.4222	0.0446	0.3137	0.2935
108	5100	5147.954	4920.9906	5365.325	0.3327	0.1672	0.5465	0.1083
109	5040	5099.8683	4833.8497	5352.6825	0.3213	0.4996	0.6505	0.0756
110	5235	5201.5665	4904.2939	5482.7446	0.4079	0.87	0.7605	0.2804
111	5310	5208.8276	4875.7007	5521.8939	0.2632	0.4349	0.8076	0.3167
112	5265	5216.3845	4851.7038	5557.185	0.3899	0.2952	0.7201	0.3466
113	5380	5240.5704	4846.3396	5607.1516	0.228	0.448	0.7046	0.4061
114	5465	5401.3522	4990.9548	5782.6967	0.3718	0.5437	0.6431	0.7251
115	5225	5092.1239	4625.5584	5519.3895	0.2711	0.0436	0.5222	0.1881
116	5445	5307.6904	4835.1092	5741.5046	0.2675	0.6456	0.5408	0.5408

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
105	0.0095	8e-04	8e-04	8e-04	19.3639	0	0	0.0361	0.0361
106	0.0126	0.0039	0.0023	0.0023	430.1504	224.7572	14.9919	0.1703	0.1032
107	0.0165	0.0032	0.0026	0.0026	288.4393	245.9845	15.6839	0.1394	0.1153
108	0.0215	-0.0094	0.0043	0.0043	2299.5881	759.3854	27.5569	-0.3937	0.1849
109	0.0253	-0.0119	0.0058	0.0058	3584.2075	1324.3498	36.3916	-0.4915	0.2462
110	0.0276	0.0064	0.0059	0.0059	1117.8014	1289.9251	35.9155	0.2745	0.2509
111	0.0307	0.0191	0.0078	0.0078	10235.861	2567.916	50.6746	0.8305	0.3337
112	0.0333	0.0092	0.008	0.008	2363.4678	2542.3599	50.4218	0.3991	0.3419
113	0.0357	0.0259	0.01	0.01	19440.6107	4419.9434	66.4827	1.1446	0.4311
114	0.036	0.0116	0.0101	0.0102	4051.0473	4383.0538	66.2046	0.5225	0.4402
115	0.0428	0.0254	0.0115	0.0116	17656.0609	5589.6908	74.7642	1.0908	0.4993
116	0.0417	0.0252	0.0127	0.0128	18853.9192	6695.0431	81.8232	1.1272	0.5517