Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast
time	Y[t]	F[t]	95% LB	95% UB	p-value (H0: Y[t] = F[t])	P(F[t]>Y[t-1])	P(F[t]>Y[t-s])	P(F[t]>Y[102])
90	5249	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
91	5100	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
92	5382	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
93	5039	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
94	5364	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
95	5193	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
96	5846	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
97	5259	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
98	4809	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
99	5297	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
100	5034	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
101	5243	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
102	5150	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
103	5296	5199.8967	4929.9385	5469.8549	0.2427	0.6414	0.7659	0.6414
104	5596	5336.4689	5052.1262	5620.8116	0.0368	0.6099	0.3768	0.9007
105	4954	5048.6387	4750.4608	5346.8166	0.2669	2e-04	0.5253	0.2526
106	5250	5308.1035	4997.0922	5619.1149	0.3571	0.9872	0.3623	0.8405
107	5009	5120.0904	4797.1201	5443.0607	0.2501	0.2152	0.3291	0.428
108	5113	5578.3826	5244.2278	5912.5374	0.0032	0.9996	0.0582	0.994
109	5237	5354.9764	5011.2865	5698.6662	0.2505	0.9162	0.7079	0.8788
110	4575	4897.3192	4543.6503	5250.9882	0.037	0.0299	0.6877	0.0807
111	5026	5335.8644	4972.7497	5698.9791	0.0472	1	0.5831	0.8421
112	4842	5059.5049	4687.4351	5431.5747	0.1259	0.57	0.5534	0.3168
113	5019	5159.5004	4778.9295	5540.0713	0.2347	0.949	0.3336	0.5195
114	5063	5116.3022	4727.6526	5504.9518	0.394	0.6882	0.4325	0.4325
115	5261	5198.9058	4783.3088	5614.5028	0.3848	0.7392	0.3235	0.5912
116	5327	5313.6672	4886.3266	5741.0077	0.4756	0.5954	0.0977	0.7736
117	5054	5034.266	4595.7354	5472.7966	0.4649	0.0954	0.6401	0.3025
118	5269	5283.978	4834.8715	5733.0846	0.4739	0.8422	0.5589	0.7206
119	5019	5093.5197	4634.4056	5552.6338	0.3752	0.2269	0.6409	0.4047
120	5315	5522.6015	5054.0049	5991.1981	0.1926	0.9824	0.9567	0.9404
121	5274	5354.075	4877.5148	5830.6353	0.371	0.5638	0.6849	0.7994
122	4899	4895.3793	4410.1234	5380.6352	0.4942	0.0631	0.9022	0.1519
123	5216	5326.5894	4833.0308	5820.148	0.3303	0.9552	0.8837	0.7584
124	5029	5048.3306	4546.8409	5549.8204	0.4699	0.2561	0.79	0.3456
125	5110	5132.0201	4622.9518	5641.0884	0.4662	0.6542	0.6683	0.4724
126	5093	5096.4342	4580.1226	5612.7459	0.4948	0.4795	0.5505	0.4194

Univariate ARIMA Extrapolation Forecast Performance
time	% S.E.	PE	MAPE	sMAPE	Sq.E	MSE	RMSE	ScaledE	MASE
103	0.0265	0.0181	0.0181	0.0183	9235.8396	0	0	0.3989	0.3989
104	0.0272	0.0464	0.0323	0.0329	67356.388	38296.1138	195.6939	1.0773	0.7381
105	0.0301	-0.0191	0.0279	0.0282	8956.4893	28516.239	168.8675	-0.3928	0.623
106	0.0299	-0.0111	0.0237	0.0239	3376.0203	22231.1843	149.1013	-0.2412	0.5276
107	0.0322	-0.0222	0.0234	0.0235	12341.0805	20253.1636	142.3136	-0.4611	0.5143
108	0.0306	-0.091	0.0346	0.0341	216580.9475	52974.4609	230.1618	-1.9317	0.7505
109	0.0327	-0.0225	0.0329	0.0324	13918.421	47395.0266	217.704	-0.4897	0.7133
110	0.0368	-0.0705	0.0376	0.0369	103889.6852	54456.8589	233.3599	-1.3379	0.7913
111	0.0347	-0.0617	0.0403	0.0394	96015.9486	59074.5356	243.0525	-1.2862	0.8463
112	0.0375	-0.0449	0.0407	0.0399	47308.3793	57897.9199	240.6199	-0.9028	0.852
113	0.0376	-0.028	0.0396	0.0388	19740.3698	54429.0518	233.3003	-0.5832	0.8275
114	0.0388	-0.0105	0.0372	0.0364	2841.1218	50130.0576	223.8974	-0.2213	0.777
115	0.0408	0.0118	0.0352	0.0345	3855.6922	46570.491	215.802	0.2577	0.7371
116	0.041	0.0025	0.0329	0.0322	177.7638	43256.7248	207.9825	0.0553	0.6884
117	0.0444	0.0039	0.0309	0.0303	389.4323	40398.9053	200.9948	0.0819	0.6479
118	0.0434	-0.0028	0.0292	0.0286	224.3418	37887.9951	194.6484	-0.0622	0.6113
119	0.046	-0.0148	0.0283	0.0278	5553.1847	35985.9474	189.6996	-0.3093	0.5936
120	0.0433	-0.0391	0.0289	0.0284	43098.3794	36381.0825	190.7383	-0.8617	0.6085
121	0.0454	-0.0152	0.0282	0.0277	6412.0115	34803.763	186.5577	-0.3324	0.5939
122	0.0506	7e-04	0.0268	0.0263	13.1098	33064.2303	181.8357	0.015	0.565
123	0.0473	-0.0212	0.0266	0.0261	12230.0122	32072.1247	179.0869	-0.459	0.5599
124	0.0507	-0.0038	0.0255	0.0251	373.6734	30631.286	175.018	-0.0802	0.5381
125	0.0506	-0.0043	0.0246	0.0242	484.8847	29320.5729	171.2325	-0.0914	0.5187
126	0.0517	-7e-04	0.0236	0.0232	11.7939	28099.3738	167.6287	-0.0143	0.4977