Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.203967975806686 |
beta | 0.761275346849982 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 1200.03 | 1426.47 | -226.44 |
4 | 1451.49 | 1283.05284132461 | 168.437158675385 |
5 | 2576.19 | 1246.33219053268 | 1329.85780946732 |
6 | 2434.2 | 1652.99888292829 | 781.201117071714 |
7 | 2586.21 | 2069.05880215944 | 517.151197840555 |
8 | 1898.55 | 2511.56205543772 | -613.012055437722 |
9 | 2958.18 | 2628.36226548911 | 329.81773451089 |
10 | 3290.73 | 2988.68226911288 | 302.047730887117 |
11 | 3408.39 | 3390.23878180226 | 18.1512181977387 |
12 | 3214.71 | 3736.70794223267 | -521.99794223267 |
13 | 4205.43 | 3891.95032811997 | 313.479671880031 |
14 | 4378.53 | 4266.27919596891 | 112.25080403109 |
15 | 4279.68 | 4616.99365141447 | -337.31365141447 |
16 | 4799.25 | 4823.63471067141 | -24.3847106714074 |
17 | 4902.84 | 5090.31689729234 | -187.47689729234 |
18 | 5379.84 | 5294.62287711793 | 85.2171228820653 |
19 | 5527.05 | 5567.78186046039 | -40.7318604603861 |
20 | 6004.83 | 5808.92661274215 | 195.903387257848 |
21 | 5827.71 | 6128.7564310251 | -301.0464310251 |
22 | 6496.02 | 6300.47917793112 | 195.540822068883 |
23 | 6858.99 | 6603.852577585 | 255.137422415 |
24 | 6696.84 | 6958.99844039047 | -262.158440390474 |
25 | 6831 | 7167.92565382883 | -336.925653828828 |
26 | 7366.47 | 7309.28635250092 | 57.1836474990805 |
27 | 7881.03 | 7539.91196373936 | 341.118036260641 |
28 | 7494.66 | 7881.41847060043 | -386.758470600428 |
29 | 5813.55 | 8014.40725206696 | -2200.85725206696 |
30 | 6911.25 | 7435.6381253084 | -524.3881253084 |
31 | 7252.59 | 7117.39023161176 | 135.199768388235 |
32 | 7425.63 | 6954.67039650998 | 470.959603490016 |
33 | 7603.5 | 6933.56344054097 | 669.936559459028 |
34 | 6045.72 | 7057.06634105703 | -1011.34634105703 |
35 | 6064.35 | 6680.60376797933 | -616.253767979329 |
36 | 5486.85 | 6289.03813568312 | -802.188135683116 |
37 | 5808.27 | 5734.98744905048 | 73.2825509495215 |
38 | 6467.88 | 5370.88375235231 | 1096.99624764769 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
39 | 5385.92182683255 | 4165.72581951178 | 6606.11783415332 |
40 | 5177.20779721257 | 3880.66350591284 | 6473.7520885123 |
41 | 4968.49376759259 | 3527.94581241382 | 6409.04172277136 |
42 | 4759.77973797261 | 3103.54073199387 | 6416.01874395135 |
43 | 4551.06570835263 | 2612.85255866823 | 6489.27885803703 |
44 | 4342.35167873265 | 2064.72099526739 | 6619.98236219791 |
45 | 4133.63764911267 | 1467.60745274867 | 6799.66784547666 |
46 | 3924.92361949268 | 828.342914967672 | 7021.5043240177 |
47 | 3716.2095898727 | 152.127366012141 | 7280.29181373327 |
48 | 3507.49556025272 | -557.122815114366 | 7572.11393561981 |
49 | 3298.78153063274 | -1296.42562350905 | 7893.98868477453 |
50 | 3090.06750101276 | -2063.46490577306 | 8243.59990779858 |