Structural Time Series Model -- Interpolation | |||||
t | Observed | Level | Slope | Seasonal | Stand. Residuals |
1 | 434.5 | 434.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2 | 455 | 453.896446233853 | 1.11663524135408 | 1.10355376614655 | 0.38269307526839 |
3 | 448 | 447.105939743274 | 0.950833640544601 | 0.894060256726317 | -0.258241069734323 |
4 | 425.51 | 424.819765744081 | 0.304393958765709 | 0.690234255919308 | -0.755557676758962 |
5 | 405 | 404.285257445423 | -0.432744080806047 | 0.714742554577142 | -0.674894803447125 |
6 | 392.5 | 391.726468904945 | -0.944592184229121 | 0.773531095055445 | -0.391250168251743 |
7 | 394 | 393.078118533849 | -0.83337681144233 | 0.921881466150654 | 0.0738327398031367 |
8 | 439.98 | 438.446817633437 | 1.66309171499006 | 1.5331823665634 | 1.48087987299935 |
9 | 445 | 444.147540161483 | 1.9013786488438 | 0.852459838516784 | 0.129046363792191 |
10 | 440 | 439.128375967055 | 1.46257440155887 | 0.871624032944608 | -0.220623746496185 |
11 | 422 | 421.280259104934 | 0.164143976265892 | 0.719740895065545 | -0.614228017183005 |
12 | 418 | 417.060319880505 | -0.145197268612535 | 0.939680119494883 | -0.139171146803688 |
13 | 420 | 425.972251918991 | 0.293344364290719 | -5.97225191899112 | 0.340960177135211 |
14 | 426.34 | 425.735713806927 | 0.248195678069866 | 0.60428619307319 | -0.0143333276201587 |
15 | 421 | 420.549858019194 | -0.174745377632484 | 0.4501419808057 | -0.171586677959753 |
16 | 429 | 428.299160272435 | 0.4515978958847 | 0.700839727564777 | 0.249756720319693 |
17 | 444.44 | 443.619564531669 | 1.65130682384105 | 0.82043546833067 | 0.468271919871258 |
18 | 462.34 | 461.443248812229 | 2.97771097457616 | 0.89675118777132 | 0.508931784866658 |
19 | 455 | 455.265970166362 | 2.21667852903504 | -0.265970166362151 | -0.28790673405144 |
20 | 458 | 456.932805936924 | 2.17045861942426 | 1.06719406307624 | -0.0172816704580931 |
21 | 459.08 | 458.676341785998 | 2.13423785971437 | 0.403658214001518 | -0.0134118285697652 |
22 | 510.05 | 508.285802215565 | 6.19317128827461 | 1.76419778443533 | 1.49084037419284 |
23 | 578 | 576.46586594219 | 11.5277869984633 | 1.53413405781009 | 1.94602357633851 |
24 | 590 | 589.926962270572 | 11.6948155038163 | 0.0730377294282833 | 0.0606500343496477 |
25 | 745 | 723.829558263042 | 21.7654458049572 | 21.1704417369584 | 4.17035198027123 |
26 | 735 | 736.797226954133 | 20.9831906538613 | -1.79722695413314 | -0.253400232740168 |
27 | 687.8 | 692.304259540668 | 15.2507375693495 | -4.50425954066804 | -2.05369105665708 |
28 | 685.76 | 687.805574279947 | 13.5215020260728 | -2.04557427994749 | -0.618717437049339 |
29 | 660 | 663.134098578121 | 10.1695206327272 | -3.13409857812095 | -1.19659804425196 |
30 | 669.01 | 670.153307334385 | 9.89252824108363 | -1.14330733438524 | -0.0986958629734271 |
31 | 658.06 | 661.370017223279 | 8.2480359497978 | -3.31001722327871 | -0.585048261350475 |
32 | 649 | 650.50485705338 | 6.56298076853356 | -1.50485705337973 | -0.598710529376112 |
33 | 595.69 | 600.094638120703 | 1.53503852927571 | -4.40463812070337 | -1.78455741939555 |
34 | 583.37 | 585.458692645072 | 0.106710639288394 | -2.08869264507213 | -0.506504065867329 |
35 | 594.8 | 594.660232404989 | 0.910686703192244 | 0.13976759501137 | 0.284887988798477 |
36 | 606 | 610.433939030301 | 2.22397883005736 | -4.43393903030139 | 0.465217242001881 |
37 | 627.42 | 605.525109859916 | 1.60153215687925 | 21.8948901400843 | -0.23572654093059 |
38 | 629 | 628.118895213071 | 3.46199186517234 | 0.88110478692946 | 0.621696653707217 |
39 | 614.68 | 619.290274859313 | 2.37403740568214 | -4.61027485931325 | -0.38495488672143 |
40 | 610.99 | 611.853577373313 | 1.50558964329563 | -0.863577373312545 | -0.3070011104769 |
41 | 618.26 | 620.803380045937 | 2.16470899476365 | -2.54338004593703 | 0.23297276448202 |
42 | 642.76 | 642.590844673833 | 3.90249408725825 | 0.169155326167083 | 0.614157904923393 |
43 | 657 | 659.694943252634 | 5.07180957415416 | -2.69494325263408 | 0.413188602222779 |
44 | 712 | 709.953118380478 | 9.07465347671041 | 2.04688161952232 | 1.41425415266796 |
45 | 730 | 733.486994266719 | 10.3556660002933 | -3.48699426671874 | 0.452548019403729 |
46 | 729.47 | 732.127068015125 | 9.31761315190473 | -2.65706801512509 | -0.366688625708124 |
47 | 744.9 | 744.726243098809 | 9.60841330220939 | 0.173756901190606 | 0.102721461982475 |
48 | 745 | 749.20697259591 | 9.15432346042536 | -4.20697259590977 | -0.16038056489908 |
49 | 773.64 | 754.768630285842 | 8.83762396918244 | 18.8713697141578 | -0.116793378571091 |
50 | 770 | 768.491033591401 | 9.2696465153512 | 1.50896640859941 | 0.146919471390606 |
51 | 780 | 783.795065735097 | 9.80397501148534 | -3.79506573509647 | 0.188847925053805 |
52 | 890 | 886.764160384068 | 18.0583622897054 | 3.2358396159322 | 2.9142241580806 |
Structural Time Series Model -- Extrapolation | |||
t | Observed | Level | Seasonal |
1 | 886.744630332313 | 892.029099536671 | -5.28446920435794 |
2 | 902.900021857439 | 906.199671578511 | -3.29964972107195 |
3 | 907.249591113965 | 920.370243620352 | -13.1206525063869 |
4 | 936.244631571606 | 934.540815662192 | 1.70381590941465 |
5 | 934.115917993647 | 948.711387704032 | -14.5954697103846 |
6 | 946.672830287235 | 962.881959745872 | -16.2091294586366 |
7 | 970.739466134062 | 977.052531787712 | -6.31306565365016 |
8 | 980.441797667845 | 991.223103829552 | -10.781306161707 |
9 | 1036.07688624321 | 1005.39367587139 | 30.6832103718133 |
10 | 1043.93309839038 | 1019.56424791323 | 24.3688504771476 |
11 | 1034.44121310772 | 1033.73481995507 | 0.706393152650735 |
12 | 1060.04686450208 | 1047.90539199691 | 12.1414725051689 |