Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.083185237678146 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 101.94 | 103.23 | -1.28999999999999 |
4 | 101.8 | 102.152691043395 | -0.352691043395183 |
5 | 102.25 | 101.983352355123 | 0.266647644876599 |
6 | 102.6 | 102.455533502839 | 0.144466497161218 |
7 | 102.49 | 102.817550982742 | -0.32755098274167 |
8 | 102.13 | 102.680303576391 | -0.55030357639059 |
9 | 100.76 | 102.274526442593 | -1.51452644259339 |
10 | 100.86 | 100.778540200496 | 0.0814597995035626 |
11 | 101.12 | 100.885316453279 | 0.234683546720646 |
12 | 100.74 | 101.164838659892 | -0.424838659892472 |
13 | 99.99 | 100.749498354994 | -0.759498354994449 |
14 | 99.39 | 99.9363193038181 | -0.546319303818066 |
15 | 99.52 | 99.2908736026818 | 0.229126397318197 |
16 | 99.21 | 99.439933536501 | -0.229933536501051 |
17 | 99.38 | 99.110806460617 | 0.269193539382968 |
18 | 99.37 | 99.303199389172 | 0.0668006108279826 |
19 | 99.38 | 99.2987562138608 | 0.0812437861391828 |
20 | 99.26 | 99.3155144975207 | -0.0555144975206474 |
21 | 99.36 | 99.1908965108498 | 0.169103489150174 |
22 | 99.2 | 99.304963424787 | -0.104963424786988 |
23 | 98.53 | 99.1362320173486 | -0.606232017348574 |
24 | 98.65 | 98.4158024628973 | 0.234197537102673 |
25 | 99.15 | 98.5552842406849 | 0.59471575931515 |
26 | 100.17 | 99.1047558124744 | 1.06524418752558 |
27 | 99.98 | 100.213368403399 | -0.233368403398998 |
28 | 100.07 | 100.003955597296 | 0.066044402704307 |
29 | 99.94 | 100.099449516632 | -0.159449516631952 |
30 | 100.05 | 99.9561856706933 | 0.0938143293067384 |
31 | 99.13 | 100.073989637974 | -0.943989637974255 |
32 | 98.74 | 99.0754636355737 | -0.33546363557366 |
33 | 98.64 | 98.6575580133161 | -0.0175580133160764 |
34 | 98.44 | 98.5560974458052 | -0.116097445805238 |
35 | 98.81 | 98.3464398521821 | 0.463560147817901 |
36 | 98.88 | 98.7550012132564 | 0.124998786743546 |
37 | 99.63 | 98.8353992670412 | 0.794600732958813 |
38 | 100.08 | 99.6514983178716 | 0.428501682128399 |
39 | 100.07 | 100.137143332145 | -0.0671433321449371 |
40 | 100.55 | 100.121557998102 | 0.428442001898048 |
41 | 99.98 | 100.637198047861 | -0.657198047861144 |
42 | 99.89 | 100.012528872048 | -0.122528872048207 |
43 | 99.86 | 99.9123362787044 | -0.0523362787044448 |
44 | 99.61 | 99.8779826729212 | -0.267982672921221 |
45 | 100.12 | 99.6056904705806 | 0.514309529419364 |
46 | 100.24 | 100.158473431026 | 0.0815265689744678 |
47 | 100.1 | 100.285255238043 | -0.185255238042757 |
48 | 99.86 | 100.129844737035 | -0.269844737035044 |
49 | 97.99 | 99.8673976384486 | -1.8773976384486 |
50 | 97.57 | 97.8412258696778 | -0.271225869677849 |
51 | 98.28 | 97.3986638812442 | 0.881336118755769 |
52 | 97.97 | 98.1819780357573 | -0.211978035757269 |
53 | 97.99 | 97.8543445924703 | 0.13565540752974 |
54 | 97.84 | 97.8856291197879 | -0.0456291197879324 |
55 | 97.33 | 97.7318334506133 | -0.401833450613339 |
56 | 96.7 | 97.188406839517 | -0.48840683951704 |
57 | 96.79 | 96.5177786004882 | 0.272221399511821 |
58 | 96.76 | 96.6304234023077 | 0.129576597692349 |
59 | 96.23 | 96.6112022623842 | -0.381202262384221 |
60 | 96.29 | 96.0494918615843 | 0.240508138415663 |
61 | 96.46 | 96.129498588242 | 0.330501411758021 |
62 | 97.23 | 96.326991426732 | 0.903008573267982 |
63 | 97.59 | 97.1721084095247 | 0.417891590475278 |
64 | 97.13 | 97.5668708208021 | -0.436870820802113 |
65 | 97.37 | 97.070529617739 | 0.299470382260964 |
66 | 96.12 | 97.335441132665 | -1.21544113266498 |
67 | 96.96 | 95.9843343731605 | 0.975665626839543 |
68 | 96.7 | 96.9054953502235 | -0.205495350223487 |
69 | 97 | 96.6284011706734 | 0.371598829326601 |
70 | 97.15 | 96.9593127076119 | 0.190687292388148 |
71 | 96.51 | 97.1251750753514 | -0.61517507535136 |
72 | 96.68 | 96.4340015904946 | 0.245998409505418 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 96.6244650266577 | 95.5588586184846 | 97.6900714348309 |
74 | 96.5689300533155 | 94.9980041886041 | 98.1398559180269 |
75 | 96.5133950799732 | 94.5102504945066 | 98.5165396654399 |
76 | 96.457860106631 | 94.052538391105 | 98.863181822157 |
77 | 96.4023251332887 | 93.6090338646317 | 99.1956164019457 |
78 | 96.3467901599465 | 93.1720438765635 | 99.5215364433294 |
79 | 96.2912551866042 | 92.7372572720689 | 99.8452531011396 |
80 | 96.235720213262 | 92.3020383738137 | 100.16940205271 |
81 | 96.1801852399197 | 91.8646801778498 | 100.49569030199 |
82 | 96.1246502665774 | 91.4240322623993 | 100.825268270756 |
83 | 96.0691152932352 | 90.9792975244137 | 101.158933062057 |
84 | 96.0135803198929 | 90.5299132164833 | 101.497247423303 |