Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.984327064331654 |
beta | 0.0175907963968444 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 95.3 | 87.923092948718 | 7.376907051282 |
14 | 97.68 | 97.9351502018701 | -0.255150201870052 |
15 | 98.53 | 98.9999323270602 | -0.469932327060206 |
16 | 98.32 | 98.9630783363422 | -0.643078336342228 |
17 | 97.02 | 97.7729904121829 | -0.752990412182939 |
18 | 90.13 | 91.1291749550674 | -0.999174955067417 |
19 | 88.49 | 90.9540659116604 | -2.46406591166037 |
20 | 88.07 | 88.3510261798338 | -0.28102617983383 |
21 | 87.17 | 88.115278876332 | -0.945278876332026 |
22 | 86.1 | 88.1447387373649 | -2.04473873736487 |
23 | 86.59 | 86.2219823181742 | 0.368017681825819 |
24 | 85.89 | 91.6851229372161 | -5.79512293721606 |
25 | 85.82 | 92.1803254509837 | -6.36032545098375 |
26 | 86.68 | 88.1934029829768 | -1.51340298297676 |
27 | 86.3 | 87.6370665687797 | -1.33706656877968 |
28 | 86.32 | 86.3497206490342 | -0.0297206490342319 |
29 | 85.61 | 85.3780404793217 | 0.231959520678259 |
30 | 85.52 | 79.333319794842 | 6.186680205158 |
31 | 85.97 | 85.9663474344591 | 0.00365256554087523 |
32 | 86.6 | 85.6271573230859 | 0.972842676914112 |
33 | 86.78 | 86.4375200363889 | 0.342479963611126 |
34 | 84.98 | 87.5619254371992 | -2.58192543719917 |
35 | 85.21 | 84.9835165720628 | 0.226483427937239 |
36 | 86.39 | 90.0435959938622 | -3.65359599386217 |
37 | 88.39 | 92.50783310686 | -4.11783310686 |
38 | 88.83 | 90.7129810736981 | -1.88298107369815 |
39 | 95.76 | 89.6979823961515 | 6.06201760384855 |
40 | 100.98 | 95.744720831731 | 5.23527916826903 |
41 | 102.56 | 100.081263359218 | 2.47873664078234 |
42 | 102.92 | 96.5019769063684 | 6.41802309363159 |
43 | 104.35 | 103.430363892948 | 0.919636107051701 |
44 | 105.07 | 104.188400045212 | 0.881599954788484 |
45 | 105.41 | 105.077899385847 | 0.332100614153347 |
46 | 105.06 | 106.324903317315 | -1.26490331731506 |
47 | 104.33 | 105.288344569258 | -0.958344569258401 |
48 | 104.61 | 109.302291668683 | -4.69229166868303 |
49 | 104.78 | 110.899789619614 | -6.11978961961361 |
50 | 104.38 | 107.297673290986 | -2.91767329098622 |
51 | 104.08 | 105.499093707293 | -1.41909370729344 |
52 | 103.4 | 104.149851415304 | -0.749851415303567 |
53 | 101.72 | 102.429068721229 | -0.709068721229059 |
54 | 100.1 | 95.5956861080083 | 4.50431389199173 |
55 | 100.37 | 100.343052158345 | 0.0269478416550015 |
56 | 96.27 | 99.9952086586261 | -3.72520865862613 |
57 | 95.28 | 96.0351357009984 | -0.755135700998409 |
58 | 95.85 | 95.8617345279584 | -0.0117345279583674 |
59 | 96.76 | 95.7600279157934 | 0.999972084206604 |
60 | 97 | 101.373505132658 | -4.37350513265764 |
61 | 96.71 | 102.998367982558 | -6.28836798255793 |
62 | 96.97 | 99.0135307887093 | -2.0435307887093 |
63 | 96.97 | 97.8470451483621 | -0.877045148362143 |
64 | 98.01 | 96.7993952167259 | 1.21060478327415 |
65 | 99.18 | 96.8004775933121 | 2.37952240668795 |
66 | 99.51 | 92.9339628745902 | 6.5760371254098 |
67 | 99.16 | 99.5312558383338 | -0.371255838333823 |
68 | 99.4 | 98.6065945715229 | 0.793405428477058 |
69 | 97.59 | 99.0930579562981 | -1.50305795629814 |
70 | 96.71 | 98.1343500385318 | -1.42435003853177 |
71 | 96.56 | 96.5728066803266 | -0.0128066803265909 |
72 | 96.42 | 101.002406343686 | -4.58240634368566 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 102.285259568152 | 96.1554984437884 | 108.415020692516 |
74 | 104.559274944329 | 95.8833629315656 | 113.235186957093 |
75 | 105.460470868339 | 94.7701236848734 | 116.150818051805 |
76 | 105.361922585586 | 92.9267819474547 | 117.797063223718 |
77 | 104.22181531091 | 90.2096213744373 | 118.234009247383 |
78 | 98.0697633615001 | 82.5961528626035 | 113.543373860397 |
79 | 97.962255179596 | 81.1120806444845 | 114.812429714707 |
80 | 97.304767722835 | 79.1429564368242 | 115.466579008846 |
81 | 96.8440134360191 | 77.4217536770387 | 116.266273195 |
82 | 97.2618104098433 | 76.6203650381519 | 117.903255781535 |
83 | 97.0448498127543 | 75.2180498148346 | 118.871649810674 |
84 | 101.336091586382 | 78.3520428178515 | 124.320140354913 |