| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.763593666620862 |
| beta | 0.0660654920052931 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 2402 | 1889 | 513 |
| 4 | 2180 | 2080.60296010183 | 99.3970398981746 |
| 5 | 2453 | 1961.39562085841 | 491.60437914159 |
| 6 | 2507 | 2166.47538201087 | 340.524617989134 |
| 7 | 2679 | 2273.37010493109 | 405.629895068913 |
| 8 | 2622 | 2450.44169399741 | 171.558306002591 |
| 9 | 2618 | 2457.43233479495 | 160.567665205047 |
| 10 | 2648 | 2464.13077960696 | 183.869220393043 |
| 11 | 2523 | 2497.89783011413 | 25.102169885869 |
| 12 | 2473 | 2411.69770035166 | 61.3022996483364 |
| 13 | 2513 | 2356.23228924278 | 156.767710757224 |
| 14 | 2466 | 2381.57215212869 | 84.4278478713131 |
| 15 | 2544 | 2355.9329016614 | 188.067098338599 |
| 16 | 2537 | 2418.91938334715 | 118.080616652854 |
| 17 | 2564 | 2434.42146632302 | 129.578533676976 |
| 18 | 2582 | 2465.2401589917 | 116.759841008296 |
| 19 | 2716 | 2492.16078515709 | 223.83921484291 |
| 20 | 2904 | 2612.13860269489 | 291.861397305115 |
| 21 | 2851 | 2798.7813156869 | 52.2186843131012 |
| 22 | 2932 | 2805.06865674217 | 126.931343257831 |
| 23 | 2772 | 2874.80944073647 | -102.809440736468 |
| 24 | 2811 | 2763.93516958625 | 47.064830413749 |
| 25 | 2935 | 2769.87823117808 | 165.12176882192 |
| 26 | 2783 | 2874.29875269486 | -91.2987526948646 |
| 27 | 3003 | 2778.31242234923 | 224.687577650775 |
| 28 | 2995 | 2934.94610980169 | 60.0538901983055 |
| 29 | 3127 | 2968.89610628881 | 158.103893711192 |
| 30 | 2985 | 3085.69236183827 | -100.692361838271 |
| 31 | 3287 | 2999.79378886714 | 287.206211132863 |
| 32 | 3236 | 3224.58085617712 | 11.4191438228813 |
| 33 | 3252 | 3239.35472928591 | 12.6452707140857 |
| 34 | 3228 | 3255.70278351378 | -27.7027835137751 |
| 35 | 2856 | 3239.84379145393 | -383.843791453929 |
| 36 | 3176 | 2932.67394013888 | 243.32605986112 |
| 37 | 3362 | 3116.68213146815 | 245.317868531852 |
| 38 | 3036 | 3314.58685272111 | -278.586852721106 |
| 39 | 3330 | 3098.38732266594 | 231.612677334062 |
| 40 | 3251 | 3283.45713150959 | -32.4571315095864 |
| 41 | 3318 | 3265.24753565286 | 52.7524643471379 |
| 42 | 3238 | 3314.76466118693 | -76.7646611869318 |
| 43 | 3597 | 3261.510768398 | 335.489231601998 |
| 44 | 3708 | 3539.97582662064 | 168.02417337936 |
| 45 | 3902 | 3699.04197461788 | 202.958025382121 |
| 46 | 3745 | 3895.02205308284 | -150.022053082839 |
| 47 | 3426 | 3813.90058798092 | -387.900587980917 |
| 48 | 3526 | 3531.56808504727 | -5.56808504727087 |
| 49 | 3483 | 3540.90136564563 | -57.9013656456304 |
| 50 | 3458 | 3507.35232335764 | -49.3523233576402 |
| 51 | 3824 | 3477.84158952003 | 346.158410479975 |
| 52 | 3696 | 3767.80306666716 | -71.803066667158 |
| 53 | 3518 | 3734.98954393478 | -216.989543934775 |
| 54 | 3814 | 3580.36603365377 | 233.633966346234 |
| 55 | 3996 | 3781.62195924297 | 214.37804075703 |
| 56 | 4136 | 3978.98895203509 | 157.011047964914 |
| 57 | 4037 | 4140.47163882741 | -103.471638827414 |
| 58 | 3915 | 4097.83154216502 | -182.831542165019 |
| 59 | 3760 | 3985.36938815124 | -225.369388151238 |
| 60 | 3955 | 3829.05635171854 | 125.943648281457 |
| 61 | 4160 | 3947.35722822223 | 212.64277177777 |
| 62 | 4115 | 4142.58823691092 | -27.5882369109195 |
| 63 | 4202 | 4152.98861977453 | 49.0113802254691 |
| 64 | 4018 | 4224.35247162208 | -206.352471622077 |
| 65 | 4233 | 4090.31220090844 | 142.687799091561 |
| 66 | 4029 | 4229.99506900109 | -200.995069001095 |
| 67 | 4401 | 4097.10423900039 | 303.895760999614 |
| 68 | 4645 | 4365.07553670672 | 279.924463293283 |
| 69 | 4491 | 4628.8639062468 | -137.863906246799 |
| 70 | 4379 | 4566.67687596953 | -187.676875969532 |
| 71 | 4394 | 4456.98520623602 | -62.9852062360233 |
| 72 | 4472 | 4439.32987904477 | 32.6701209552348 |
| 73 | 4614 | 4496.36446971618 | 117.635530283817 |
| 74 | 4160 | 4624.21249093001 | -464.212490930006 |
| 75 | 4328 | 4284.34683188575 | 43.6531681142469 |
| 76 | 4202 | 4334.48635330365 | -132.486353303647 |
| 77 | 4635 | 4243.44328731845 | 391.556712681551 |
| 78 | 4542 | 4572.30912393674 | -30.3091239367359 |
| 79 | 4920 | 4577.5118693769 | 342.4881306231 |
| 80 | 4774 | 4884.65780156839 | -110.657801568394 |
| 81 | 4698 | 4840.2019946014 | -142.201994601395 |
| 82 | 4916 | 4764.48555039404 | 151.514449605958 |
| 83 | 4703 | 4920.69260118639 | -217.69260118639 |
| 84 | 4616 | 4783.9935060302 | -167.993506030202 |
| 85 | 4873 | 4676.76952463999 | 196.230475360006 |
| 86 | 4375 | 4857.56394499573 | -482.563944995732 |
| 87 | 4801 | 4495.69124939346 | 305.308750606543 |
| 88 | 4427 | 4750.83512319711 | -323.835123197108 |
| 89 | 4684 | 4509.2321471687 | 174.7678528313 |
| 90 | 4648 | 4657.17579309482 | -9.17579309482426 |
| 91 | 5225 | 4664.19834298723 | 560.801657012766 |
| 92 | 5174 | 5134.74293235853 | 39.257067641468 |
| 93 | 5181 | 5209.01978522583 | -28.0197852258289 |
| 94 | 5266 | 5230.51093986864 | 35.4890601313646 |
| 95 | 4839 | 5302.2873700053 | -463.287370005301 |
| 96 | 5032 | 4969.82973045877 | 62.1702695412296 |
| 97 | 5221 | 5041.74453202683 | 179.255467973166 |
| 98 | 4658 | 5212.10778445294 | -554.107784452938 |
| 99 | 5014 | 4794.52632060338 | 219.473679396619 |
| 100 | 4980 | 4978.71859384952 | 1.28140615047505 |
| 101 | 4952 | 4996.36527248048 | -44.3652724804824 |
| 102 | 4946 | 4976.91833301966 | -30.9183330196638 |
| 103 | 5365 | 4966.17964830674 | 398.820351693262 |
| 104 | 5456 | 5303.70606810979 | 152.293931890214 |
| 105 | 5397 | 5460.66927620897 | -63.6692762089679 |
| 106 | 5436 | 5449.51241022508 | -13.512410225082 |
| 107 | 4995 | 5475.9733463008 | -480.973346300799 |
| 108 | 5019 | 5121.22031779625 | -102.220317796255 |
| 109 | 5249 | 5050.52397514694 | 198.476024853056 |
| 110 | 4799 | 5219.45001331045 | -420.45001331045 |
| 111 | 5137 | 4894.55752638149 | 242.44247361851 |
| 112 | 4979 | 5088.07608596244 | -109.076085962443 |
| 113 | 4951 | 5007.67471757535 | -56.6747175753508 |
| 114 | 5265 | 4964.42762189279 | 300.572378107209 |
| 115 | 5612 | 5209.13517814322 | 402.864821856781 |
| 116 | 5572 | 5552.27599531115 | 19.7240046888528 |
| 117 | 5403 | 5603.847931703 | -200.847931703001 |
| 118 | 5373 | 5476.86032040344 | -103.860320403437 |
| 119 | 5252 | 5418.69237338338 | -166.692373383378 |
| 120 | 5437 | 5304.13710660249 | 132.862893397511 |
| 121 | 5296 | 5425.02290413531 | -129.022904135308 |
| 122 | 5011 | 5339.42552217003 | -328.425522170029 |
| 123 | 5294 | 5084.99741882851 | 209.002581171486 |
| 124 | 5335 | 5251.48960465248 | 83.5103953475209 |
| 125 | 5398 | 5326.36961705861 | 71.6303829413946 |
| 126 | 5396 | 5395.79167886156 | 0.208321138443353 |
| 127 | 5724 | 5410.68681583109 | 313.31318416891 |
| 128 | 5898 | 5680.47261333039 | 217.52738666961 |
| 129 | 5718 | 5888.0906281904 | -170.090628190399 |
| 130 | 5625 | 5791.14538738033 | -166.145387380333 |
| 131 | 5380 | 5688.83113932909 | -308.831139329089 |
| 132 | 5488 | 5461.98329121458 | 26.0167087854225 |
| 133 | 5678 | 5492.13560908644 | 185.864390913561 |
| 134 | 5224 | 5653.72294113545 | -429.722941135452 |
| 135 | 5596 | 5323.57336977204 | 272.426630227957 |
| 136 | 5184 | 5543.32392244646 | -359.323922446462 |
| 137 | 5620 | 5262.54687156825 | 357.453128431748 |
| 138 | 5531 | 5547.12874346253 | -16.1287434625347 |
| 139 | 5816 | 5545.63221420746 | 270.367785792541 |
| 140 | 6086 | 5776.54191560555 | 309.45808439445 |
| 141 | 6175 | 6052.91201261817 | 122.087987381828 |
| 142 | 6112 | 6192.36648628995 | -80.3664862899468 |
| 143 | 5813 | 6173.17374258073 | -360.173742580731 |
| 144 | 5740 | 5922.15219640823 | -182.152196408232 |
| 145 | 5821 | 5797.8777087213 | 23.1222912787034 |
| 146 | 5294 | 5831.51597440186 | -537.515974401857 |
| 147 | 5881 | 5409.93823996811 | 471.06176003189 |
| 148 | 5589 | 5782.2678185546 | -193.267818554604 |
| 149 | 5845 | 5637.56971977315 | 207.430280226853 |
| 150 | 5706 | 5809.30642647157 | -103.306426471568 |
| 151 | 6355 | 5738.55503289205 | 616.44496710795 |
| 152 | 6404 | 6248.4991621591 | 155.500837840902 |
| 153 | 6426 | 6414.31385416212 | 11.6861458378789 |
| 154 | 6375 | 6470.90209141899 | -95.902091418985 |
| 155 | 5869 | 6440.49864095389 | -571.498640953885 |
| 156 | 5994 | 6018.10217614221 | -24.1021761422071 |
| 157 | 6105 | 6012.47829790133 | 92.5217020986729 |
| 158 | 5792 | 6100.57513446503 | -308.575134465032 |
| 159 | 6011 | 5866.83021809521 | 144.169781904789 |
| 160 | 5968 | 5986.07141302436 | -18.071413024355 |
| 161 | 6255 | 5980.51460701111 | 274.48539298889 |
| 162 | 6208 | 6212.19934231938 | -4.19934231937896 |
| 163 | 6897 | 6230.87033373712 | 666.129666262882 |
| 164 | 6814 | 6795.00468135005 | 18.9953186499515 |
| 165 | 6897 | 6865.94960014623 | 31.0503998537688 |
| 166 | 6596 | 6947.66610806091 | -351.666108060913 |
| 167 | 6188 | 6719.40214700155 | -531.402147001551 |
| 168 | 6406 | 6327.08513918857 | 78.9148608114283 |
| 169 | 6548 | 6404.78336625057 | 143.216633749435 |
| 170 | 5842 | 6538.80689679738 | -696.806896797381 |
| 171 | 6555 | 5996.24182879998 | 558.758171200019 |
| 172 | 6424 | 6440.60607509614 | -16.6060750961424 |
| 173 | 6596 | 6444.78809707373 | 151.211902926274 |
| 174 | 6645 | 6584.74308000469 | 60.2569199953068 |
| 175 | 7203 | 6658.28520639076 | 544.714793609241 |
| 176 | 7128 | 7129.23562819789 | -1.2356281978864 |
| 177 | 7133 | 7183.23943165206 | -50.2394316520567 |
| 178 | 6778 | 7197.28980293007 | -419.289802930068 |
| 179 | 6593 | 6908.38365514702 | -315.383655147021 |
| 180 | 6591 | 6682.9093641571 | -91.9093641571026 |
| 181 | 6120 | 6623.44205714585 | -503.442057145853 |
| 182 | 5612 | 6224.33375440703 | -612.333754407025 |
| 183 | 6070 | 5711.18592325777 | 358.81407674223 |
| 184 | 5983 | 5957.70158768912 | 25.2984123108763 |
| 185 | 6145 | 5950.82303688671 | 194.176963113291 |
| 186 | 6303 | 6082.69476030497 | 220.305239695026 |
| 187 | 6588 | 6245.63165080709 | 342.368349192913 |
| 188 | 6640 | 6519.04668024891 | 120.953319751091 |
| 189 | 6719 | 6629.49235077141 | 89.5076492285925 |
| 190 | 6575 | 6720.44171594171 | -145.441715941707 |
| 191 | 6487 | 6624.64810782754 | -137.648107827544 |
| 192 | 6510 | 6527.86168908493 | -17.8616890849289 |
| 193 | 6365 | 6521.64234899556 | -156.642348995564 |
| 194 | 5844 | 6401.54880940705 | -557.548809407049 |
| 195 | 5974 | 5947.19886430627 | 26.8011356937268 |
| 196 | 5880 | 5940.40687839349 | -60.4068783934927 |
| 197 | 6279 | 5863.97604789634 | 415.02395210366 |
| 198 | 6342 | 6171.5179811796 | 170.4820188204 |
| 199 | 6598 | 6300.92958199734 | 297.070418002664 |
| 200 | 6801 | 6541.98965089817 | 259.01034910183 |
| 201 | 6529 | 6767.05363685915 | -238.053636859147 |
| 202 | 6369 | 6600.55357388208 | -231.55357388208 |
| 203 | 6028 | 6427.33569039433 | -399.335690394335 |
| 204 | 6187 | 6105.85508140836 | 81.1449185916408 |
| 205 | 6164 | 6155.35995560759 | 8.6400443924058 |
| 206 | 5866 | 6149.93643304126 | -283.936433041261 |
| 207 | 6198 | 5906.77956975607 | 291.220430243927 |
| 208 | 5898 | 6117.50009733739 | -219.500097337388 |
| 209 | 6462 | 5927.16450124855 | 534.835498751449 |
| 210 | 6063 | 6339.8157375473 | -276.815737547298 |
| 211 | 6496 | 6118.73065384268 | 377.269346157324 |
| 212 | 6678 | 6416.13297635479 | 261.86702364521 |
| 213 | 6554 | 6638.6252721144 | -84.6252721143992 |
| 214 | 6513 | 6592.26913800979 | -79.2691380097885 |
| 215 | 6210 | 6546.00400861745 | -336.004008617453 |
| 216 | 5928 | 6286.74729953567 | -358.747299535669 |
| 217 | 6268 | 5992.02616391068 | 275.973836089319 |
| 218 | 5582 | 6195.8961724161 | -613.896172416101 |
| 219 | 5869 | 5689.29774067657 | 179.70225932343 |
| 220 | 5764 | 5797.75151950267 | -33.7515195026699 |
| 221 | 6082 | 5741.51067534061 | 340.489324659387 |
| 222 | 6062 | 5988.21449966056 | 73.7855003394361 |
| 223 | 6810 | 6034.98724411536 | 775.012755884638 |
| 224 | 6727 | 6656.30989650497 | 70.6901034950324 |
| 225 | 6537 | 6743.3823494447 | -206.3823494447 |
| 226 | 6175 | 6608.47262226582 | -433.472622265823 |
| 227 | 6014 | 6278.29072472056 | -264.290724720558 |
| 228 | 6109 | 6063.96232790493 | 45.0376720950735 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 229 | 6088.10715986257 | 5569.30506921504 | 6606.90925051009 |
| 230 | 6077.86151064906 | 5408.89593372101 | 6746.82708757712 |
| 231 | 6067.61586143556 | 5262.21808081837 | 6873.01364205275 |
| 232 | 6057.37021222205 | 5122.50257801312 | 6992.23784643099 |
| 233 | 6047.12456300855 | 4986.54895183055 | 7107.70017418655 |
| 234 | 6036.87891379505 | 4852.57956644592 | 7221.17826114418 |
| 235 | 6026.63326458154 | 4719.50649057861 | 7333.76003858447 |
| 236 | 6016.38761536804 | 4586.61946525323 | 7446.15576548285 |
| 237 | 6006.14196615453 | 4453.43317763693 | 7558.85075467214 |
| 238 | 5995.89631694103 | 4319.60480935875 | 7672.1878245233 |
| 239 | 5985.65066772753 | 4184.88615482012 | 7786.41518063493 |
| 240 | 5975.40501851402 | 4049.09419777186 | 7901.71583925618 |
