| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.613329478711963 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 72 | 67 | 5 |
| 3 | 74 | 70.0666473935598 | 3.9333526064402 |
| 4 | 62 | 72.4790884972581 | -10.4790884972581 |
| 5 | 56 | 66.0519546118583 | -10.0519546118583 |
| 6 | 66 | 59.8867945297309 | 6.11320547026908 |
| 7 | 65 | 63.6362036540702 | 1.36379634592982 |
| 8 | 59 | 64.4726601559886 | -5.47266015598859 |
| 9 | 61 | 61.1161163553484 | -0.116116355348375 |
| 10 | 69 | 61.0448987716526 | 7.95510122834737 |
| 11 | 74 | 65.9239968611358 | 8.07600313886418 |
| 12 | 69 | 70.8772476563716 | -1.87724765637157 |
| 13 | 66 | 69.7258763298759 | -3.72587632987594 |
| 14 | 68 | 67.4406865427279 | 0.559313457272111 |
| 15 | 58 | 67.7837299739132 | -9.78372997391318 |
| 16 | 64 | 61.7830799691544 | 2.2169200308456 |
| 17 | 66 | 63.142782376019 | 2.85721762398096 |
| 18 | 57 | 64.8951981719019 | -7.89519817190192 |
| 19 | 68 | 60.0528403928017 | 7.94715960719833 |
| 20 | 62 | 64.9270676519254 | -2.9270676519254 |
| 21 | 59 | 63.1318107748153 | -4.13181077481534 |
| 22 | 73 | 60.5976494261614 | 12.4023505738386 |
| 23 | 61 | 68.2043766384168 | -7.20437663841683 |
| 24 | 61 | 63.785720070332 | -2.78572007033199 |
| 25 | 57 | 62.0771558317578 | -5.07715583175782 |
| 26 | 58 | 58.9631864921264 | -0.963186492126397 |
| 27 | 57 | 58.3724358230081 | -1.3724358230081 |
| 28 | 67 | 57.5306804751169 | 9.46931952488308 |
| 29 | 81 | 63.3384932830705 | 17.6615067169295 |
| 30 | 79 | 74.1708159910327 | 4.8291840089673 |
| 31 | 76 | 77.1326969018568 | -1.13269690185676 |
| 32 | 78 | 76.4379805015023 | 1.5620194984977 |
| 33 | 74 | 77.3960131062538 | -3.3960131062538 |
| 34 | 67 | 75.3131381580962 | -8.31313815809617 |
| 35 | 84 | 70.2144454651305 | 13.7855545348695 |
| 36 | 85 | 78.6695324417574 | 6.33046755824265 |
| 37 | 79 | 82.5521948092573 | -3.55219480925732 |
| 38 | 82 | 80.3735290186122 | 1.62647098138781 |
| 39 | 87 | 81.3710916177669 | 5.62890838223309 |
| 40 | 90 | 84.8234670615593 | 5.17653293844067 |
| 41 | 87 | 87.9983873102285 | -0.998387310228452 |
| 42 | 93 | 87.3860469416934 | 5.61395305830661 |
| 43 | 92 | 90.829249844458 | 1.17075015554198 |
| 44 | 82 | 91.5473054270585 | -9.54730542705853 |
| 45 | 80 | 85.6916615663768 | -5.69166156637684 |
| 46 | 79 | 82.200797744866 | -3.20079774486601 |
| 47 | 77 | 80.2376541325449 | -3.23765413254492 |
| 48 | 72 | 78.2519054111815 | -6.25190541118151 |
| 49 | 65 | 74.417427524385 | -9.41742752438505 |
| 50 | 73 | 68.6414416100463 | 4.35855838995373 |
| 51 | 76 | 71.3146739552922 | 4.68532604470775 |
| 52 | 77 | 74.1883225358884 | 2.81167746411157 |
| 53 | 76 | 75.9128072092581 | 0.0871927907418524 |
| 54 | 76 | 75.9662851181513 | 0.0337148818487094 |
| 55 | 76 | 75.9869634490604 | 0.0130365509396029 |
| 56 | 75 | 75.9949591500524 | -0.994959150052381 |
| 57 | 78 | 75.3847213732111 | 2.61527862678895 |
| 58 | 73 | 76.9887488500661 | -3.98874885006606 |
| 59 | 80 | 74.5423315971421 | 5.45766840285791 |
| 60 | 77 | 77.8896805136497 | -0.889680513649694 |
| 61 | 83 | 77.3440132279927 | 5.65598677200727 |
| 62 | 84 | 80.8129966464697 | 3.18700335353029 |
| 63 | 85 | 82.7676797519437 | 2.23232024805628 |
| 64 | 81 | 84.1368275660022 | -3.13682756600224 |
| 65 | 84 | 82.2129187501368 | 1.78708124986323 |
| 66 | 83 | 83.3089883615313 | -0.308988361531306 |
| 67 | 83 | 83.1194766908253 | -0.119476690825252 |
| 68 | 88 | 83.0461981143232 | 4.95380188567682 |
| 69 | 92 | 86.0845108425077 | 5.91548915749232 |
| 70 | 92 | 89.7126547237987 | 2.28734527620128 |
| 71 | 89 | 91.1155510096855 | -2.11555100968553 |
| 72 | 82 | 89.8180212117265 | -7.81802121172655 |
| 73 | 73 | 85.0229983373792 | -12.0229983373792 |
| 74 | 81 | 77.6489390345596 | 3.35106096544037 |
| 75 | 91 | 79.7042435096252 | 11.2957564903748 |
| 76 | 80 | 86.632263949524 | -6.63226394952403 |
| 77 | 81 | 82.5645009586823 | -1.56450095868232 |
| 78 | 82 | 81.6049464012493 | 0.395053598750678 |
| 79 | 84 | 81.8472444190344 | 2.15275558096563 |
| 80 | 87 | 83.1675928773023 | 3.83240712269772 |
| 81 | 85 | 85.5181211400785 | -0.518121140078478 |
| 82 | 74 | 85.2003421713245 | -11.2003421713245 |
| 83 | 81 | 78.3308421459904 | 2.66915785400957 |
| 84 | 82 | 79.9679153411901 | 2.03208465880994 |
| 85 | 86 | 81.2142527656765 | 4.78574723432345 |
| 86 | 85 | 84.1494926221514 | 0.850507377848629 |
| 87 | 82 | 84.671133868848 | -2.67113386884796 |
| 88 | 86 | 83.0328487254976 | 2.96715127450243 |
| 89 | 88 | 84.8526900699477 | 3.14730993005232 |
| 90 | 86 | 86.7830280286917 | -0.78302802869166 |
| 91 | 83 | 86.3027738560373 | -3.30277385603735 |
| 92 | 81 | 84.2770852886105 | -3.27708528861046 |
| 93 | 81 | 82.2671522768524 | -1.26715227685236 |
| 94 | 81 | 81.4899704314418 | -0.489970431441819 |
| 95 | 82 | 81.1894571221413 | 0.810542877858666 |
| 96 | 86 | 81.6865869628921 | 4.31341303710792 |
| 97 | 85 | 84.3321303324109 | 0.66786966758913 |
| 98 | 87 | 84.7417544874808 | 2.25824551251915 |
| 99 | 89 | 86.1268030304778 | 2.87319696952216 |
| 100 | 90 | 87.8890194300317 | 2.11098056996835 |
| 101 | 90 | 89.1837460425814 | 0.816253957418581 |
| 102 | 92 | 89.6843786567815 | 2.31562134321847 |
| 103 | 86 | 91.104617488112 | -5.10461748811201 |
| 104 | 86 | 87.9738051051043 | -1.9738051051043 |
| 105 | 82 | 86.7632122489117 | -4.76321224891167 |
| 106 | 80 | 83.8417937632922 | -3.84179376329223 |
| 107 | 79 | 81.4855083971333 | -2.48550839713334 |
| 108 | 77 | 79.9610728275853 | -2.96107282758534 |
| 109 | 79 | 78.1449595738143 | 0.855040426185738 |
| 110 | 76 | 78.6693810726844 | -2.66938107268442 |
| 111 | 78 | 77.0321709708913 | 0.9678290291087 |
| 112 | 78 | 77.6257690447968 | 0.37423095520316 |
| 113 | 77 | 77.8552959214695 | -0.855295921469477 |
| 114 | 72 | 77.3307177198101 | -5.33071771981014 |
| 115 | 75 | 74.0612313995584 | 0.938768600441648 |
| 116 | 79 | 74.6370058558984 | 4.36299414410162 |
| 117 | 81 | 77.3129587799236 | 3.68704122007642 |
| 118 | 86 | 79.5743298494226 | 6.42567015057743 |
| 119 | 88 | 83.5153827732512 | 4.48461722674875 |
| 120 | 97 | 86.2659307191558 | 10.7340692808442 |
| 121 | 94 | 92.8494518356341 | 1.15054816436594 |
| 122 | 96 | 93.5551169415176 | 2.44488305848238 |
| 123 | 94 | 95.0546357932883 | -1.05463579328833 |
| 124 | 91 | 94.4077965719598 | -3.40779657195981 |
| 125 | 92 | 92.3176944769233 | -0.317694476923279 |
| 126 | 93 | 92.1228430890023 | 0.877156910997741 |
| 127 | 93 | 92.6608292799731 | 0.3391707200269 |
| 128 | 87 | 92.8688526808816 | -5.86885268088156 |
| 129 | 84 | 89.2693123254792 | -5.26931232547916 |
| 130 | 80 | 86.0374877437225 | -6.03748774372249 |
| 131 | 78 | 82.3345185331353 | -4.33451853313531 |
| 132 | 75 | 79.6760305407401 | -4.67603054074009 |
| 133 | 73 | 76.8080831667467 | -3.80808316674674 |
| 134 | 81 | 74.4724735031942 | 6.52752649680583 |
| 135 | 76 | 78.4759979267586 | -2.47599792675861 |
| 136 | 77 | 76.9573954090478 | 0.042604590952152 |
| 137 | 71 | 76.9835260606073 | -5.98352606060726 |
| 138 | 71 | 73.3136531409956 | -2.31365314099557 |
| 139 | 78 | 71.8946214661085 | 6.10537853389154 |
| 140 | 67 | 75.6392300996394 | -8.63923009963936 |
| 141 | 76 | 70.3405356061548 | 5.65946439384516 |
| 142 | 68 | 73.8116519526208 | -5.81165195262082 |
| 143 | 82 | 70.2471944900645 | 11.7528055099355 |
| 144 | 64 | 77.4555365668763 | -13.4555365668763 |
| 145 | 71 | 69.2028593385243 | 1.79714066147568 |
| 146 | 81 | 70.3050986835993 | 10.6949013164007 |
| 147 | 69 | 76.8645969328632 | -7.86459693286321 |
| 148 | 63 | 72.0410077957505 | -9.04100779575052 |
| 149 | 70 | 66.4958911973521 | 3.50410880264795 |
| 150 | 77 | 68.6450644226301 | 8.35493557736987 |
| 151 | 75 | 73.7693927049704 | 1.23060729502957 |
| 152 | 76 | 74.5241604357301 | 1.47583956426995 |
| 153 | 68 | 75.4293363463462 | -7.42933634634623 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 154 | 70.8727053578659 | 60.1980071969196 | 81.5474035188121 |
| 155 | 70.8727053578659 | 58.350173997863 | 83.3952367178687 |
| 156 | 70.8727053578659 | 56.741944497346 | 85.0034662183857 |
| 157 | 70.8727053578659 | 55.2989128418425 | 86.4464978738893 |
| 158 | 70.8727053578659 | 53.9786938695576 | 87.7667168461741 |
| 159 | 70.8727053578659 | 52.7544208087691 | 88.9909899069626 |
| 160 | 70.8727053578659 | 51.6077930601941 | 90.1376176555376 |
| 161 | 70.8727053578659 | 50.5256796127617 | 91.21973110297 |
| 162 | 70.8727053578659 | 49.4982798098686 | 92.2471309058631 |
| 163 | 70.8727053578659 | 48.5180486093979 | 93.2273621063338 |
| 164 | 70.8727053578659 | 47.5790304829826 | 94.1663802327491 |
| 165 | 70.8727053578659 | 46.6764267181305 | 95.0689839976012 |
