Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.0540003928280715 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | -2.468 | 0.7923 | -3.2603 |
3 | -2.996 | 0.616242519262638 | -3.61224251926264 |
4 | 3.119 | 0.421180004232193 | 2.69781999576781 |
5 | 0.04315 | 0.566863343783081 | -0.523713343783081 |
6 | 0.731 | 0.538582617489492 | 0.192417382510508 |
7 | 2.45 | 0.548973231732008 | 1.90102676826799 |
8 | 2.119 | 0.651629423995159 | 1.46737057600484 |
9 | -1.429 | 0.730868011523774 | -2.15986801152377 |
10 | -1.644 | 0.614234290444705 | -2.2582342904447 |
11 | -3.065 | 0.492288751662869 | -3.55728875166287 |
12 | -1.461 | 0.300193761670194 | -1.76119376167019 |
13 | 1.141 | 0.205088606693655 | 0.935911393306345 |
14 | 1.329 | 0.255628189584465 | 1.07337181041553 |
15 | 0.3396 | 0.313590688997482 | 0.0260093110025177 |
16 | 0.8429 | 0.314995202008806 | 0.527904797991194 |
17 | 2.225 | 0.343502268476154 | 1.88149773152385 |
18 | -1.924 | 0.445103885083567 | -2.36910388508357 |
19 | 0.4999 | 0.317171344638544 | 0.182728655361456 |
20 | -0.6433 | 0.327038763809008 | -0.970338763809008 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
21 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.5947008489117 | 4.14398102768573 |
22 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.60033832329236 | 4.14961850206639 |
23 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.60596760795473 | 4.15524778672876 |
24 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.61158873848774 | 4.16086891726177 |
25 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.61720175022332 | 4.16648192899736 |
26 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.62280667823899 | 4.17208685701302 |
27 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.62840355736038 | 4.17768373613441 |
28 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.6339924221638 | 4.18327260093783 |
29 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.6395733069787 | 4.18885348575273 |
30 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.64514624589016 | 4.19442642466419 |
31 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.65071127274128 | 4.19999145151531 |
32 | 0.274640089387016 | -3.65626842113562 | 4.20554859990965 |