| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.86027857545682 |
| beta | 0.00780892603310416 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 14058 | 14084 | -26 |
| 4 | 13427 | 13741.4580928923 | -314.458092892268 |
| 5 | 19946 | 13148.6493856983 | 6797.35061430173 |
| 6 | 19631 | 18719.6409358627 | 911.359064137327 |
| 7 | 14724 | 19233.1624351971 | -4509.16243519706 |
| 8 | 11462 | 15053.2335360333 | -3591.23353603331 |
| 9 | 11778 | 11638.8538280692 | 139.146171930764 |
| 10 | 11778 | 11434.574624542 | 343.425375457971 |
| 11 | 12093 | 11408.3395239848 | 684.660476015151 |
| 12 | 12760 | 11680.2611172171 | 1079.73888278287 |
| 13 | 13742 | 12299.3137251752 | 1442.68627482476 |
| 14 | 13427 | 13240.2939510606 | 186.706048939426 |
| 15 | 11462 | 13102.0355609795 | -1640.03556097948 |
| 16 | 11778 | 11381.2529852039 | 396.747014796052 |
| 17 | 20929 | 11415.3361098649 | 9513.66389013508 |
| 18 | 22893 | 19356.4188803435 | 3536.5811196565 |
| 19 | 17666 | 22179.3036273591 | -4513.30362735908 |
| 20 | 14724 | 18046.7252868878 | -3322.72528688777 |
| 21 | 15387 | 14916.0544091984 | 470.945590801641 |
| 22 | 15707 | 15052.1610525874 | 654.838947412649 |
| 23 | 17351 | 15350.8663218154 | 2000.13367818461 |
| 24 | 18964 | 16820.3364271589 | 2143.66357284106 |
| 25 | 19315 | 18427.6830399264 | 887.316960073604 |
| 26 | 16022 | 18960.1824421874 | -2938.18244218738 |
| 27 | 16369 | 16181.9483941593 | 187.051605840687 |
| 28 | 12093 | 16093.5428258982 | -4000.54282589816 |
| 29 | 24222 | 12375.7644316315 | 11846.2355683685 |
| 30 | 27800 | 22370.2112344695 | 5429.7887655305 |
| 31 | 19631 | 26881.2028383021 | -7250.20283830209 |
| 32 | 17004 | 20435.1635404613 | -3431.16354046134 |
| 33 | 18649 | 17251.5118813391 | 1397.48811866086 |
| 34 | 20613 | 18231.2339109264 | 2381.76608907364 |
| 35 | 23555 | 20073.7095422758 | 3481.2904577242 |
| 36 | 27164 | 22885.4692244091 | 4278.53077559095 |
| 37 | 27164 | 26411.8202070099 | 752.179792990097 |
| 38 | 24853 | 26909.580022087 | -2056.58002208703 |
| 39 | 23871 | 24977.2081449209 | -1106.20814492086 |
| 40 | 17982 | 23854.9894900602 | -5872.98949006016 |
| 41 | 27800 | 18592.5570972854 | 9207.44290271457 |
| 42 | 32391 | 26365.3518371821 | 6025.64816281786 |
| 43 | 28462 | 31441.396141982 | -2979.39614198196 |
| 44 | 24222 | 28750.5786186961 | -4528.57861869614 |
| 45 | 24853 | 24696.6102813597 | 156.389718640257 |
| 46 | 27164 | 24674.0704342746 | 2489.92956572541 |
| 47 | 30426 | 26675.7519003359 | 3750.24809966406 |
| 48 | 34355 | 29786.8520102062 | 4568.14798979385 |
| 49 | 31724 | 33632.2620134532 | -1908.26201345315 |
| 50 | 30111 | 31893.3358237 | -1782.33582370003 |
| 51 | 30111 | 30250.7677692238 | -139.767769223847 |
| 52 | 24853 | 30020.3268815883 | -5167.32688158834 |
| 53 | 32391 | 25430.0712667383 | 6960.92873326166 |
| 54 | 37297 | 31320.2566023748 | 5976.74339762524 |
| 55 | 33373 | 36403.9192556588 | -3030.91925565875 |
| 56 | 29129 | 33718.121447113 | -4589.12144711302 |
| 57 | 30426 | 29661.0066394224 | 764.993360577588 |
| 58 | 35653 | 30215.0612033207 | 5437.93879667935 |
| 59 | 37964 | 34825.6818769116 | 3138.31812308837 |
| 60 | 41222 | 37479.0709092726 | 3742.92909072735 |
| 61 | 38595 | 40677.7382463729 | -2082.73824637289 |
| 62 | 34355 | 38850.7172588257 | -4495.71725882569 |
| 63 | 33373 | 34917.6605617225 | -1544.66056172251 |
| 64 | 25520 | 33512.9579154168 | -7992.95791541682 |
| 65 | 30742 | 26507.2277011245 | 4234.77229887551 |
| 66 | 36315 | 30049.2003892104 | 6265.79961078964 |
| 67 | 30111 | 35380.5150728694 | -5269.51507286936 |
| 68 | 26502 | 30752.8458518984 | -4250.84585189842 |
| 69 | 30111 | 26972.9593849031 | 3138.04061509692 |
| 70 | 33689 | 29570.6545336271 | 4118.34546637294 |
| 71 | 35653 | 33039.3513776746 | 2613.6486223254 |
| 72 | 40906 | 35231.1478682375 | 5674.85213176251 |
| 73 | 38280 | 40094.5549684839 | -1814.55496848393 |
| 74 | 31724 | 38502.795686219 | -6778.79568621897 |
| 75 | 32391 | 32594.8675265204 | -203.867526520367 |
| 76 | 26186 | 32341.8396459556 | -6155.83964595564 |
| 77 | 31409 | 26927.1036511024 | 4481.89634889764 |
| 78 | 36000 | 30693.8927392789 | 5306.10726072106 |
| 79 | 30742 | 35205.3784585743 | -4463.37845857426 |
| 80 | 27164 | 31282.4006054789 | -4118.40060547888 |
| 81 | 30426 | 27628.5330036378 | 2797.46699636221 |
| 82 | 34355 | 29943.0310989517 | 4411.96890104833 |
| 83 | 33689 | 33676.0895459641 | 12.9104540358603 |
| 84 | 41542 | 33624.8189893458 | 7917.18101065416 |
| 85 | 40244 | 40426.6094956156 | -182.609495615638 |
| 86 | 35017 | 40259.0970201308 | -5242.0970201308 |
| 87 | 35333 | 35703.8001938028 | -370.800193802825 |
| 88 | 28462 | 35336.6846811197 | -6874.68468111972 |
| 89 | 32706 | 29328.2335741426 | 3377.76642585737 |
| 90 | 39262 | 32162.4378345575 | 7099.56216544251 |
| 91 | 34355 | 38246.1170381779 | -3891.11703817786 |
| 92 | 31409 | 34848.6104457475 | -3439.61044574748 |
| 93 | 36315 | 31816.4185083634 | 4498.58149163661 |
| 94 | 39262 | 35643.5038261822 | 3618.49617381778 |
| 95 | 36982 | 38737.7791214103 | -1755.77912141029 |
| 96 | 47431 | 37196.8854576795 | 10234.1145423205 |
| 97 | 44835 | 46039.3916992889 | -1204.39169928887 |
| 98 | 38946 | 45033.5051611114 | -6087.50516111144 |
| 99 | 37297 | 39785.8857729207 | -2488.88577292074 |
| 100 | 29764 | 37617.361579935 | -7853.36157993499 |
| 101 | 34035 | 30781.1360626784 | 3253.86393732156 |
| 102 | 37964 | 33522.0776662749 | 4441.92233372513 |
| 103 | 33053 | 37314.9206304723 | -4261.9206304723 |
| 104 | 33053 | 33591.4030174063 | -538.40301740633 |
| 105 | 38595 | 33067.5309205371 | 5527.46907946288 |
| 106 | 41542 | 37799.1313479696 | 3742.86865203043 |
| 107 | 39924 | 41020.6222987058 | -1096.6222987058 |
| 108 | 51355 | 40071.4359223631 | 11283.5640776369 |
| 109 | 48413 | 49848.4599565892 | -1435.45995658917 |
| 110 | 42871 | 48673.9369062492 | -5802.93690624922 |
| 111 | 40560 | 43703.1837373855 | -3143.18373738547 |
| 112 | 32391 | 40999.4437932851 | -8608.44379328506 |
| 113 | 35333 | 33536.2274644757 | 1796.77253552434 |
| 114 | 40560 | 35036.466267881 | 5523.53373211897 |
| 115 | 36631 | 39779.8641653842 | -3148.86416538425 |
| 116 | 35653 | 37041.4303511419 | -1388.43035114188 |
| 117 | 40244 | 35808.1327615189 | 4435.86723848111 |
| 118 | 44168 | 39615.1531038845 | 4552.84689611549 |
| 119 | 39924 | 43553.3938900278 | -3629.39389002776 |
| 120 | 50057 | 40428.2464984781 | 9628.75350152194 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 121 | 48773.4837968188 | 39893.2254253472 | 57653.7421682904 |
| 122 | 48835.3107494454 | 37082.1862887769 | 60588.435210114 |
| 123 | 48897.137702072 | 34813.9901649697 | 62980.2852391744 |
| 124 | 48958.9646546986 | 32851.0958827558 | 65066.8334266414 |
| 125 | 49020.7916073252 | 31089.5833994675 | 66951.999815183 |
| 126 | 49082.6185599518 | 29473.0153883271 | 68692.2217315766 |
| 127 | 49144.4455125784 | 27966.7336348083 | 70322.1573903486 |
| 128 | 49206.272465205 | 26547.6719563505 | 71864.8729740596 |
| 129 | 49268.0994178316 | 25199.5775643152 | 73336.6212713481 |
| 130 | 49329.9263704582 | 23910.4987668236 | 74749.3539740929 |
| 131 | 49391.7533230848 | 22671.3498604105 | 76112.1567857592 |
| 132 | 49453.5802757115 | 21475.03766737 | 77432.122884053 |
