| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.588167237735778 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 1 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 3233 | 3532.69791666667 | -299.697916666668 |
| 14 | 3554 | 3634.55989056264 | -80.5598905626366 |
| 15 | 3952 | 3952.72833862175 | -0.728338621750481 |
| 16 | 3951 | 3940.51775673676 | 10.4822432632377 |
| 17 | 3685 | 3686.77587183248 | -1.77587183247761 |
| 18 | 4312 | 4366.15749856583 | -54.1574985658335 |
| 19 | 3867 | 3463.77163526199 | 403.228364738009 |
| 20 | 4140 | 3656.53015175696 | 483.469848243038 |
| 21 | 4114 | 4604.06741329024 | -490.067413290242 |
| 22 | 3818 | 3901.25195287464 | -83.2519528746384 |
| 23 | 3377 | 3956.04535141322 | -579.045351413223 |
| 24 | 3453 | 4296.7709829124 | -843.770982912401 |
| 25 | 3502 | 2102.53491677585 | 1399.46508322415 |
| 26 | 4017 | 3294.03711738799 | 722.962882612009 |
| 27 | 5410 | 4117.68858395468 | 1292.31141604532 |
| 28 | 5184 | 4870.61850775906 | 313.381492240944 |
| 29 | 5529 | 4789.98374403821 | 739.016255961791 |
| 30 | 6434 | 5883.50256028324 | 550.497439716762 |
| 31 | 4962 | 5525.1214053174 | -563.121405317396 |
| 32 | 2980 | 5182.55071867233 | -2202.55071867233 |
| 33 | 2937 | 4149.32414327711 | -1212.32414327711 |
| 34 | 3023 | 3189.24087184381 | -166.240871843805 |
| 35 | 2731 | 2991.03894231711 | -260.038942317105 |
| 36 | 3163 | 3410.37100421191 | -247.37100421191 |
| 37 | 3146 | 2490.75597166104 | 655.244028338956 |
| 38 | 3173 | 2965.92596020063 | 207.07403979937 |
| 39 | 3724 | 3720.62489032643 | 3.37510967357139 |
| 40 | 3224 | 3312.28929261132 | -88.2892926113163 |
| 41 | 4114 | 3170.69527334359 | 943.304726656411 |
| 42 | 3450 | 4306.73165026537 | -856.731650265367 |
| 43 | 2957 | 2662.03972352339 | 294.960276476606 |
| 44 | 3882 | 2148.99386675488 | 1733.00613324512 |
| 45 | 4284 | 3838.34063971652 | 445.659360283485 |
| 46 | 4181 | 4284.24030901671 | -103.240309016705 |
| 47 | 3760 | 4084.46412804575 | -324.464128045747 |
| 48 | 4457 | 4471.12047835198 | -14.120478351977 |
| 49 | 4167 | 4060.4222054132 | 106.577794586801 |
| 50 | 3962 | 4028.3136064637 | -66.3136064637047 |
| 51 | 5247 | 4538.32498679189 | 708.67501320811 |
| 52 | 5157 | 4507.07328111971 | 649.926718880285 |
| 53 | 3697 | 5224.51794867361 | -1527.51794867361 |
| 54 | 3514 | 4165.98342442782 | -651.983424427825 |
| 55 | 3786 | 3116.02216357557 | 669.977836424429 |
| 56 | 3297 | 3415.78374659957 | -118.783746599575 |
| 57 | 3571 | 3485.79680356516 | 85.2031964348357 |
| 58 | 3871 | 3493.63309963584 | 377.366900364157 |
| 59 | 3492 | 3485.42711697296 | 6.57288302704319 |
| 60 | 3051 | 4194.59827417472 | -1143.59827417472 |
| 61 | 3735 | 3169.28566912788 | 565.714330872116 |
| 62 | 3645 | 3336.02379520253 | 308.976204797465 |
| 63 | 4852 | 4385.93405113336 | 466.065948866635 |
| 64 | 4232 | 4187.79316990646 | 44.2068300935371 |
| 65 | 3804 | 3652.23019151481 | 151.76980848519 |
| 66 | 4464 | 3941.97151033846 | 522.028489661541 |
| 67 | 4259 | 4126.95255172812 | 132.047448271881 |
| 68 | 3373 | 3785.48324275363 | -412.483242753628 |
| 69 | 4134 | 3766.76038455759 | 367.239615442405 |
| 70 | 4488 | 4060.8038473594 | 427.196152640595 |
| 71 | 3333 | 3929.2006739754 | -596.2006739754 |
| 72 | 4772 | 3810.16200842783 | 961.83799157217 |
| 73 | 4929 | 4727.14896774357 | 201.851032256434 |
| 74 | 5555 | 4574.14145091814 | 980.85854908186 |
| 75 | 7183 | 6083.92559259355 | 1099.07440740645 |
| 76 | 9266 | 6084.36414171872 | 3181.63585828128 |
| 77 | 4003 | 7438.4320869367 | -3435.4320869367 |
| 78 | 3051 | 5770.78343115067 | -2719.78343115067 |
| 79 | 3507 | 3888.42994031111 | -381.429940311114 |
| 80 | 3273 | 3020.6944754313 | 252.305524568699 |
| 81 | 3942 | 3714.09400868044 | 227.90599131956 |
| 82 | 3216 | 3950.87806498833 | -734.878064988329 |
| 83 | 3232 | 2714.31256697985 | 517.687433020151 |
| 84 | 3593 | 3892.07775981751 | -299.077759817505 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 85 | 3754.44785588106 | 1950.88044161134 | 5558.01527015077 |
| 86 | 3803.53899245805 | 1711.13594892753 | 5895.94203598858 |
| 87 | 4785.09943418771 | 2439.15707016083 | 7131.0417982146 |
| 88 | 4996.76545994131 | 2422.13137834907 | 7571.39954153355 |
| 89 | 1754.37406094373 | -1030.23286515133 | 4538.98098703878 |
| 90 | 2402.06156888315 | -577.759031692792 | 5381.8821694591 |
| 91 | 3082.40616326566 | -80.6028298257306 | 6245.41515635706 |
| 92 | 2700.00831981462 | -636.145299121012 | 6036.16193875024 |
| 93 | 3234.96148243676 | -265.783587958621 | 6735.70655283213 |
| 94 | 2941.19268399356 | -716.745413713646 | 6599.13078170076 |
| 95 | 2652.70589650357 | -1155.94297224477 | 6461.35476525191 |
| 96 | 3189.61363636364 | -764.005121708301 | 7143.23239443557 |
