Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.0135490486354741 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 91.78 | 91.75 | 0.0299999999999869 |
4 | 91.83 | 92.0204064714591 | -0.19040647145907 |
5 | 92.01 | 92.0678266449168 | -0.0578266449167586 |
6 | 92.1 | 92.2470431488924 | -0.147043148892379 |
7 | 92.35 | 92.3350508541165 | 0.0149491458834916 |
8 | 92.46 | 92.5852534008211 | -0.125253400821137 |
9 | 93.08 | 92.6935563364017 | 0.386443663598342 |
10 | 93.38 | 93.3187922803946 | 0.0612077196053775 |
11 | 93.46 | 93.6196215867644 | -0.159621586764416 |
12 | 93.58 | 93.6974588661221 | -0.117458866122078 |
13 | 93.74 | 93.8158674102323 | -0.0758674102323198 |
14 | 94.18 | 93.9748394790012 | 0.205160520998774 |
15 | 94.43 | 94.4176192088783 | 0.0123807911216716 |
16 | 94.53 | 94.6677869568194 | -0.137786956819383 |
17 | 94.66 | 94.7659200746401 | -0.10592007464011 |
18 | 94.8 | 94.8944849583973 | -0.0944849583973308 |
19 | 95.04 | 95.0332047771007 | 0.00679522289932777 |
20 | 95.29 | 95.2732968459062 | 0.0167031540937614 |
21 | 95.42 | 95.5235231577534 | -0.103523157753429 |
22 | 95.64 | 95.6521205174541 | -0.0121205174541217 |
23 | 95.82 | 95.8719562959736 | -0.0519562959736533 |
24 | 96.01 | 96.0512523375926 | -0.0412523375925673 |
25 | 96.16 | 96.2406934076642 | -0.0806934076642136 |
26 | 96.4 | 96.3896000887592 | 0.0103999112407962 |
27 | 96.87 | 96.6297409976624 | 0.240259002337581 |
28 | 97 | 97.1029962785702 | -0.102996278570203 |
29 | 97.26 | 97.2316007769826 | 0.0283992230174306 |
30 | 97.42 | 97.4919855594365 | -0.071985559436456 |
31 | 97.64 | 97.6510102235906 | -0.0110102235905885 |
32 | 97.93 | 97.8708610455357 | 0.0591389544643306 |
33 | 98.1 | 98.161662322106 | -0.061662322105974 |
34 | 98.29 | 98.3308268563048 | -0.0408268563047613 |
35 | 98.42 | 98.5202736912431 | -0.100273691243075 |
36 | 98.49 | 98.6489150781236 | -0.158915078123556 |
37 | 98.67 | 98.7167619300011 | -0.0467619300011393 |
38 | 99.1 | 98.8961283503373 | 0.203871649662716 |
39 | 99.37 | 99.3288906172339 | 0.0411093827660665 |
40 | 99.54 | 99.5994476102604 | -0.0594476102604204 |
41 | 99.58 | 99.7686421516977 | -0.188642151697749 |
42 | 99.77 | 99.8060862300097 | -0.0360862300096869 |
43 | 100.06 | 99.9955972959242 | 0.0644027040757891 |
44 | 100.26 | 100.286469891294 | -0.0264698912939849 |
45 | 100.57 | 100.486111249449 | 0.0838887505505141 |
46 | 100.94 | 100.797247862211 | 0.142752137789344 |
47 | 101.03 | 101.169182017868 | -0.139182017868379 |
48 | 101.12 | 101.257296233939 | -0.137296233939097 |
49 | 101.26 | 101.345436000588 | -0.0854360005879897 |
50 | 101.94 | 101.484278424061 | 0.455721575939194 |
51 | 102.26 | 102.170453017857 | 0.089546982142565 |
52 | 102.51 | 102.491666294274 | 0.0183337057263486 |
53 | 102.61 | 102.741914698544 | -0.131914698544207 |
54 | 102.76 | 102.840127379878 | -0.0801273798778936 |
55 | 103.04 | 102.989041730111 | 0.050958269889108 |
56 | 103.22 | 103.269732166188 | -0.0497321661880079 |
57 | 103.47 | 103.44905834265 | 0.0209416573504342 |
58 | 103.64 | 103.699342082184 | -0.0593420821835196 |
59 | 103.76 | 103.868538053426 | -0.108538053425875 |
60 | 103.85 | 103.987067466061 | -0.137067466061225 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 104.075210332297 | 103.826070275211 | 104.324350389383 |
62 | 104.300420664594 | 103.945688469062 | 104.655152860127 |
63 | 104.525630996892 | 104.088234978386 | 104.963027015397 |
64 | 104.750841329189 | 104.242378354223 | 105.259304304154 |
65 | 104.976051661486 | 104.403761805064 | 105.548341517908 |
66 | 105.201261993783 | 104.570166664172 | 105.832357323394 |
67 | 105.42647232608 | 104.74028409222 | 106.112660559941 |
68 | 105.651682658378 | 104.913267192022 | 106.390098124733 |
69 | 105.876892990675 | 105.088531759673 | 106.665254221677 |
70 | 106.102103322972 | 105.265655374462 | 106.938551271482 |
71 | 106.327313655269 | 105.444321350373 | 107.210305960166 |
72 | 106.552523987567 | 105.624285365302 | 107.480762609831 |