Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999948123556096 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 89.95 | 89.72 | 0.230000000000004 |
3 | 90.19 | 89.9499880684179 | 0.240011931582103 |
4 | 90.23 | 90.1899875490345 | 0.0400124509655058 |
5 | 90.32 | 90.2299979242963 | 0.0900020757036657 |
6 | 90.86 | 90.3199953310124 | 0.540004668987635 |
7 | 90.99 | 90.8599719864781 | 0.130028013521923 |
8 | 90.98 | 90.989993254609 | -0.00999325460904288 |
9 | 91.22 | 90.9800005184145 | 0.239999481585485 |
10 | 91.42 | 91.2199875496804 | 0.200012450319647 |
11 | 91.55 | 91.4199896240654 | 0.130010375934646 |
12 | 91.67 | 91.549993255524 | 0.120006744475987 |
13 | 92.3 | 91.6699937744769 | 0.630006225523147 |
14 | 92.92 | 92.2999673175174 | 0.620032682482616 |
15 | 93.1 | 92.9199678349093 | 0.180032165090665 |
16 | 93.23 | 93.0999906605715 | 0.130009339428526 |
17 | 93.36 | 93.2299932555778 | 0.13000674442219 |
18 | 93.42 | 93.3599932557124 | 0.0600067442875911 |
19 | 93.58 | 93.4199968870635 | 0.160003112936494 |
20 | 93.68 | 93.5799916996075 | 0.100008300392531 |
21 | 94.02 | 93.679994811925 | 0.340005188074983 |
22 | 94.29 | 94.0199823617399 | 0.270017638260072 |
23 | 94.54 | 94.2899859924451 | 0.250014007554867 |
24 | 94.64 | 94.5399870301624 | 0.100012969837636 |
25 | 96.7 | 94.6399948116828 | 2.06000518831722 |
26 | 96.83 | 96.6998931342564 | 0.130106865743599 |
27 | 97.07 | 96.8299932505185 | 0.240006749481523 |
28 | 97.11 | 97.0699875493033 | 0.040012450696679 |
29 | 97.42 | 97.1099979242963 | 0.310002075703665 |
30 | 97.44 | 97.4199839181947 | 0.020016081805295 |
31 | 97.67 | 97.4399989616369 | 0.230001038363142 |
32 | 97.84 | 97.669988068364 | 0.170011931635955 |
33 | 98.17 | 97.8399911803856 | 0.330008819614434 |
34 | 98.31 | 98.169982880316 | 0.140017119684018 |
35 | 98.42 | 98.3099927364097 | 0.110007263590262 |
36 | 98.44 | 98.4199942932144 | 0.0200057067856392 |
37 | 98.89 | 98.4399989621751 | 0.450001037824933 |
38 | 99.26 | 98.8899766555464 | 0.3700233444536 |
39 | 99.59 | 99.2599808045047 | 0.330019195495268 |
40 | 99.82 | 99.5899828797777 | 0.230017120222271 |
41 | 99.95 | 99.8199880675297 | 0.130011932470254 |
42 | 99.99 | 99.9499932554433 | 0.0400067445567203 |
43 | 100.28 | 99.9899979245924 | 0.290002075407642 |
44 | 100.38 | 100.279984955724 | 0.10001504427639 |
45 | 100.46 | 100.379994811575 | 0.0800051884248347 |
46 | 100.52 | 100.459995849615 | 0.0600041503846711 |
47 | 100.43 | 100.519996887198 | -0.0899968871980406 |
48 | 100.44 | 100.430004668718 | 0.00999533128153018 |
49 | 101.33 | 100.439999481478 | 0.890000518522243 |
50 | 101.43 | 101.329953829938 | 0.100046170061987 |
51 | 101.41 | 101.42999480996 | -0.0199948099604796 |
52 | 101.53 | 101.41000103726 | 0.119998962740368 |
53 | 101.58 | 101.529993774881 | 0.0500062251194606 |
54 | 101.73 | 101.579997405855 | 0.150002594145136 |
55 | 102.12 | 101.729992218399 | 0.39000778160117 |
56 | 101.86 | 102.119979767783 | -0.259979767783207 |
57 | 101.93 | 101.860013486826 | 0.0699865131741717 |
58 | 101.86 | 101.929996369349 | -0.0699963693485728 |
59 | 101.92 | 101.860003631163 | 0.0599963688372753 |
60 | 102.02 | 101.919996887602 | 0.100003112398255 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 102.019994812194 | 101.416598641338 | 102.623390983051 |
62 | 102.019994812194 | 101.166685897488 | 102.8733037269 |
63 | 102.019994812194 | 100.974918131357 | 103.065071493032 |
64 | 102.019994812194 | 100.813249423248 | 103.22674020114 |
65 | 102.019994812194 | 100.67081595131 | 103.369173673078 |
66 | 102.019994812194 | 100.542045975607 | 103.497943648781 |
67 | 102.019994812194 | 100.423629588168 | 103.616360036221 |
68 | 102.019994812194 | 100.31341018394 | 103.726579440449 |
69 | 102.019994812194 | 100.209889771511 | 103.830099852877 |
70 | 102.019994812194 | 100.111977667822 | 103.928011956567 |
71 | 102.019994812194 | 100.018850492528 | 104.02113913186 |
72 | 102.019994812194 | 99.929868559298 | 104.11012106509 |