| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.397976136235358 |
| beta | 0.0245968898593094 |
| gamma | 0.274548590672376 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2513 | 2426.15398030827 | 86.8460196917304 |
| 14 | 2466 | 2418.87155574706 | 47.1284442529359 |
| 15 | 2544 | 2511.45716071522 | 32.5428392847839 |
| 16 | 2537 | 2514.38126801635 | 22.6187319836481 |
| 17 | 2564 | 2546.68050180729 | 17.3194981927149 |
| 18 | 2582 | 2565.92341718003 | 16.0765828199742 |
| 19 | 2716 | 2903.19653865057 | -187.196538650573 |
| 20 | 2904 | 2762.26138736027 | 141.738612639727 |
| 21 | 2851 | 2810.51981935804 | 40.4801806419623 |
| 22 | 2932 | 2855.17327471723 | 76.8267252827718 |
| 23 | 2772 | 2747.78234984079 | 24.2176501592098 |
| 24 | 2811 | 2713.64474939124 | 97.3552506087599 |
| 25 | 2935 | 2828.51440288086 | 106.485597119136 |
| 26 | 2783 | 2816.21461311075 | -33.2146131107465 |
| 27 | 3003 | 2885.7619791768 | 117.238020823199 |
| 28 | 2995 | 2920.34950707824 | 74.6504929217613 |
| 29 | 3127 | 2978.02370693601 | 148.976293063988 |
| 30 | 2985 | 3054.41360637161 | -69.4136063716064 |
| 31 | 3287 | 3377.53033110378 | -90.5303311037833 |
| 32 | 3236 | 3329.65436541663 | -93.6543654166258 |
| 33 | 3252 | 3264.72768708578 | -12.7276870857772 |
| 34 | 3228 | 3300.05204562167 | -72.05204562167 |
| 35 | 2856 | 3105.5148279563 | -249.514827956303 |
| 36 | 3176 | 2969.26897726121 | 206.731022738793 |
| 37 | 3362 | 3135.301529376 | 226.698470623995 |
| 38 | 3036 | 3137.90199160562 | -101.901991605622 |
| 39 | 3330 | 3214.95072918377 | 115.049270816233 |
| 40 | 3251 | 3238.18747242631 | 12.8125275736857 |
| 41 | 3318 | 3285.05188560025 | 32.9481143997514 |
| 42 | 3238 | 3274.99549479158 | -36.9954947915758 |
| 43 | 3597 | 3632.98809528392 | -35.9880952839162 |
| 44 | 3708 | 3602.91661192252 | 105.083388077483 |
| 45 | 3902 | 3628.19241126853 | 273.807588731469 |
| 46 | 3745 | 3773.47465793808 | -28.4746579380781 |
| 47 | 3426 | 3536.87356041602 | -110.873560416022 |
| 48 | 3526 | 3539.8435398954 | -13.8435398953998 |
| 49 | 3483 | 3633.87440299178 | -150.87440299178 |
| 50 | 3458 | 3416.38689668985 | 41.6131033101542 |
| 51 | 3824 | 3602.97779575899 | 221.022204241005 |
| 52 | 3696 | 3646.49434548063 | 49.5056545193725 |
| 53 | 3518 | 3717.31033915846 | -199.310339158465 |
| 54 | 3814 | 3598.29358949956 | 215.706410500438 |
| 55 | 3996 | 4106.68913651519 | -110.689136515185 |
| 56 | 4136 | 4070.85169454055 | 65.1483054594455 |
| 57 | 4037 | 4107.54819074036 | -70.5481907403637 |
| 58 | 3915 | 4061.74164289702 | -146.741642897023 |
| 59 | 3760 | 3745.07346040294 | 14.9265395970615 |
| 60 | 3955 | 3816.58599150221 | 138.414008497795 |
| 61 | 4160 | 3953.98117536004 | 206.018824639958 |
| 62 | 4115 | 3894.14597613083 | 220.854023869168 |
| 63 | 4202 | 4214.61493560334 | -12.6149356033438 |
| 64 | 4018 | 4127.84409067052 | -109.84409067052 |
| 65 | 4233 | 4093.79114404108 | 139.208855958917 |
| 66 | 4029 | 4183.41166699764 | -154.411666997637 |
| 67 | 4401 | 4529.19061579571 | -128.190615795713 |
| 68 | 4645 | 4518.33422553574 | 126.665774464262 |
| 69 | 4491 | 4555.0412236549 | -64.0412236549046 |
| 70 | 4379 | 4494.86238369967 | -115.862383699669 |
| 71 | 4394 | 4189.68948397888 | 204.310516021123 |
| 72 | 4472 | 4369.66159029704 | 102.338409702965 |
| 73 | 4614 | 4516.27167429436 | 97.7283257056361 |
| 74 | 4160 | 4398.113780788 | -238.113780787996 |
| 75 | 4328 | 4507.42798669214 | -179.427986692135 |
| 76 | 4202 | 4328.05481648302 | -126.05481648302 |
| 77 | 4635 | 4326.34642649875 | 308.653573501249 |
| 78 | 4542 | 4430.00877293521 | 111.991227064789 |
| 79 | 4920 | 4922.18773341951 | -2.18773341950782 |
| 80 | 4774 | 5011.21789460591 | -237.217894605906 |
| 81 | 4698 | 4864.98482549915 | -166.984825499148 |
| 82 | 4916 | 4748.45306697256 | 167.546933027438 |
| 83 | 4703 | 4588.63583585208 | 114.364164147923 |
| 84 | 4616 | 4719.53767475634 | -103.537674756341 |
| 85 | 4873 | 4785.19396385891 | 87.8060361410908 |
| 86 | 4375 | 4591.15995281967 | -216.159952819666 |
| 87 | 4801 | 4726.66395804479 | 74.3360419552082 |
| 88 | 4427 | 4647.13781791477 | -220.137817914774 |
| 89 | 4684 | 4684.37432731938 | -0.374327319377699 |
| 90 | 4648 | 4625.41885969347 | 22.5811403065263 |
| 91 | 5225 | 5070.67619896187 | 154.323801038131 |
| 92 | 5174 | 5179.74986254931 | -5.74986254931173 |
| 93 | 5181 | 5131.39815353258 | 49.6018464674216 |
| 94 | 5266 | 5155.10027277311 | 110.899727226885 |
| 95 | 4839 | 4944.75562175031 | -105.755621750308 |
| 96 | 5032 | 4951.17016402726 | 80.8298359727432 |
| 97 | 5221 | 5129.30312506025 | 91.6968749397474 |
| 98 | 4658 | 4864.86184104109 | -206.861841041089 |
| 99 | 5014 | 5069.10940524168 | -55.1094052416847 |
| 100 | 4980 | 4876.76958328232 | 103.230416717675 |
| 101 | 4952 | 5092.98788133182 | -140.98788133182 |
| 102 | 4946 | 4976.56117087254 | -30.5611708725437 |
| 103 | 5365 | 5452.62434839262 | -87.62434839262 |
| 104 | 5456 | 5436.40104634963 | 19.5989536503721 |
| 105 | 5397 | 5401.98332234346 | -4.98332234346071 |
| 106 | 5436 | 5410.82334533381 | 25.1766546661884 |
| 107 | 4995 | 5114.92834732154 | -119.928347321542 |
| 108 | 5019 | 5145.14852526803 | -126.148525268029 |
| 109 | 5249 | 5239.53758974718 | 9.46241025281779 |
| 110 | 4799 | 4882.12646943242 | -83.1264694324209 |
| 111 | 5137 | 5161.86723814019 | -24.8672381401893 |
| 112 | 4979 | 4999.36825730398 | -20.3682573039769 |
| 113 | 4951 | 5121.28078843785 | -170.280788437847 |
| 114 | 5265 | 5004.9684070524 | 260.0315929476 |
| 115 | 5612 | 5597.35895474875 | 14.6410452512455 |
| 116 | 5572 | 5637.54338670744 | -65.5433867074416 |
| 117 | 5403 | 5559.82663572657 | -156.826635726567 |
| 118 | 5373 | 5508.38288489001 | -135.382884890008 |
| 119 | 5252 | 5116.68331060745 | 135.316689392546 |
| 120 | 5437 | 5245.1941690498 | 191.805830950198 |
| 121 | 5296 | 5495.29694800208 | -199.29694800208 |
| 122 | 5011 | 5024.30095814418 | -13.3009581441775 |
| 123 | 5294 | 5351.33965060026 | -57.3396506002637 |
| 124 | 5335 | 5168.80543744446 | 166.194562555538 |
| 125 | 5398 | 5343.99763662463 | 54.0023633753735 |
| 126 | 5396 | 5389.57391592415 | 6.42608407585067 |
| 127 | 5724 | 5860.00852750824 | -136.008527508238 |
| 128 | 5898 | 5825.05862259785 | 72.9413774021459 |
| 129 | 5718 | 5782.58972938018 | -64.5897293801772 |
| 130 | 5625 | 5771.28844668693 | -146.28844668693 |
| 131 | 5380 | 5403.9582944637 | -23.9582944637004 |
| 132 | 5488 | 5479.18084963754 | 8.81915036246119 |
| 133 | 5678 | 5590.33314044859 | 87.6668595514111 |
| 134 | 5224 | 5246.90942096546 | -22.9094209654577 |
| 135 | 5596 | 5575.84404451129 | 20.1559554887108 |
| 136 | 5184 | 5454.02839623972 | -270.028396239716 |
| 137 | 5620 | 5434.18505013048 | 185.814949869517 |
| 138 | 5531 | 5521.55235170061 | 9.44764829939413 |
| 139 | 5816 | 5976.9000465735 | -160.900046573496 |
| 140 | 6086 | 5964.11542741521 | 121.884572584791 |
| 141 | 6175 | 5912.85080987747 | 262.149190122531 |
| 142 | 6112 | 6017.44971133942 | 94.5502886605809 |
| 143 | 5813 | 5749.14454870491 | 63.8554512950923 |
| 144 | 5740 | 5873.49016838516 | -133.490168385157 |
| 145 | 5821 | 5949.49098319247 | -128.490983192465 |
| 146 | 5294 | 5482.92059154852 | -188.920591548517 |
| 147 | 5881 | 5762.2073189084 | 118.792681091598 |
| 148 | 5589 | 5622.39915135456 | -33.399151354557 |
| 149 | 5845 | 5781.91170792145 | 63.0882920785452 |
| 150 | 5706 | 5790.22511343835 | -84.2251134383505 |
| 151 | 6355 | 6196.27884136198 | 158.721158638023 |
| 152 | 6404 | 6365.09947423758 | 38.9005257624167 |
| 153 | 6426 | 6299.61903145977 | 126.380968540229 |
| 154 | 6375 | 6320.64176621087 | 54.3582337891303 |
| 155 | 5869 | 6016.55102398436 | -147.55102398436 |
| 156 | 5994 | 6023.38416565748 | -29.3841656574787 |
| 157 | 6105 | 6144.57414408384 | -39.5741440838356 |
| 158 | 5792 | 5683.92121179677 | 108.078788203235 |
| 159 | 6011 | 6160.41866491474 | -149.418664914742 |
| 160 | 5968 | 5878.38721981886 | 89.6127801811444 |
| 161 | 6255 | 6113.87178152102 | 141.128218478977 |
| 162 | 6208 | 6127.58407412725 | 80.4159258727532 |
| 163 | 6897 | 6676.76800075162 | 220.231999248379 |
| 164 | 6814 | 6860.14020339454 | -46.1402033945351 |
| 165 | 6897 | 6772.93112970146 | 124.068870298538 |
| 166 | 6596 | 6780.61480909149 | -184.614809091486 |
| 167 | 6188 | 6328.05866999653 | -140.058669996534 |
| 168 | 6406 | 6362.77317324245 | 43.2268267575491 |
| 169 | 6548 | 6520.47050557482 | 27.5294944251818 |
| 170 | 5842 | 6084.30210755662 | -242.30210755662 |
| 171 | 6555 | 6393.61356894278 | 161.386431057215 |
| 172 | 6424 | 6264.36140285158 | 159.638597148416 |
| 173 | 6596 | 6551.78242149708 | 44.2175785029222 |
| 174 | 6645 | 6514.48112999067 | 130.518870009329 |
| 175 | 7203 | 7141.97986660039 | 61.0201333996138 |
| 176 | 7128 | 7220.60405025475 | -92.6040502547503 |
| 177 | 7133 | 7140.32594467915 | -7.32594467915169 |
| 178 | 6778 | 7038.78601804642 | -260.786018046419 |
| 179 | 6593 | 6546.67213379467 | 46.3278662053317 |
| 180 | 6591 | 6691.53108919322 | -100.531089193219 |
| 181 | 6120 | 6793.46664057831 | -673.466640578313 |
| 182 | 5612 | 6026.9648153711 | -414.964815371103 |
| 183 | 6070 | 6318.19919471719 | -248.19919471719 |
| 184 | 5983 | 6021.3537722308 | -38.3537722307992 |
| 185 | 6145 | 6185.75930605852 | -40.7593060585241 |
| 186 | 6303 | 6116.87106250872 | 186.128937491285 |
| 187 | 6588 | 6706.05164711712 | -118.05164711712 |
| 188 | 6640 | 6669.54279193069 | -29.5427919306867 |
| 189 | 6719 | 6614.88189962841 | 104.118100371589 |
| 190 | 6575 | 6510.30690906418 | 64.6930909358225 |
| 191 | 6487 | 6204.78932124865 | 282.210678751353 |
| 192 | 6510 | 6406.00037095128 | 103.99962904872 |
| 193 | 6365 | 6481.37572706052 | -116.375727060523 |
| 194 | 5844 | 5973.25442356329 | -129.254423563293 |
| 195 | 5974 | 6415.75188630406 | -441.75188630406 |
| 196 | 5880 | 6073.14609168585 | -193.146091685849 |
| 197 | 6279 | 6172.14896627977 | 106.851033720225 |
| 198 | 6342 | 6197.10155138895 | 144.898448611053 |
| 199 | 6598 | 6719.45833088263 | -121.458330882633 |
| 200 | 6801 | 6693.8330266688 | 107.166973331202 |
| 201 | 6529 | 6714.06885067956 | -185.068850679557 |
| 202 | 6369 | 6484.80958194382 | -115.809581943824 |
| 203 | 6028 | 6142.29189553415 | -114.291895534149 |
| 204 | 6187 | 6144.90106347 | 42.0989365300011 |
| 205 | 6164 | 6149.98096643486 | 14.0190335651405 |
| 206 | 5866 | 5702.78455830863 | 163.215441691365 |
| 207 | 6198 | 6192.83701132614 | 5.16298867386013 |
| 208 | 5898 | 6067.01662146601 | -169.016621466008 |
| 209 | 6462 | 6225.42958626592 | 236.570413734081 |
| 210 | 6063 | 6308.12398159432 | -245.12398159432 |
| 211 | 6496 | 6622.87584866627 | -126.875848666266 |
| 212 | 6678 | 6628.31411750681 | 49.6858824931924 |
| 213 | 6554 | 6573.93792450893 | -19.9379245089294 |
| 214 | 6513 | 6420.03188876787 | 92.9681112321259 |
| 215 | 6210 | 6158.34610575941 | 51.6538942405896 |
| 216 | 5928 | 6255.01095610729 | -327.010956107295 |
| 217 | 6268 | 6106.12071826393 | 161.879281736067 |
| 218 | 5582 | 5740.18276516698 | -158.182765166985 |
| 219 | 5869 | 6063.75460054164 | -194.754600541636 |
| 220 | 5764 | 5828.51539564603 | -64.5153956460317 |
| 221 | 6082 | 6081.33111784636 | 0.668882153639061 |
| 222 | 6062 | 5986.48106295366 | 75.5189370463404 |
| 223 | 6810 | 6432.69967074362 | 377.300329256375 |
| 224 | 6727 | 6668.3563874811 | 58.6436125189039 |
| 225 | 6537 | 6605.66064915672 | -68.6606491567245 |
| 226 | 6175 | 6450.26095149715 | -275.260951497151 |
| 227 | 6014 | 6037.70471874967 | -23.7047187496737 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 228 | 6035.93611040139 | 5874.59667772504 | 6197.27554307775 |
| 229 | 6096.0082644657 | 5896.1532773996 | 6295.8632515318 |
| 230 | 5617.69083720628 | 5394.08855719524 | 5841.29311721733 |
| 231 | 5994.25886308295 | 5729.40023810447 | 6259.11748806144 |
| 232 | 5857.70661211321 | 5569.30289241133 | 6146.11033181508 |
| 233 | 6151.56433927312 | 5824.40390725961 | 6478.72477128662 |
| 234 | 6069.10169772575 | 5720.12531180994 | 6418.07808364156 |
| 235 | 6537.40131521597 | 6139.89770531205 | 6934.9049251199 |
| 236 | 6566.57939079554 | 6143.57525293017 | 6989.58352866091 |
| 237 | 6458.03676237178 | 6017.96177432065 | 6898.11175042291 |
| 238 | 6294.87686535601 | 5841.85560505081 | 6747.89812566122 |
| 239 | 6033.2225061955 | 5555.54472241899 | 6510.900289972 |
