Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 1 |
beta | 0.00942378258373058 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 97.61 | 97.68 | -0.0700000000000074 |
4 | 97.69 | 97.5593403352191 | 0.13065966478085 |
5 | 97.68 | 97.6405716434925 | 0.0394283565075142 |
6 | 97.67 | 97.6309432077519 | 0.0390567922481324 |
7 | 97.67 | 97.6213112704704 | 0.048688729529573 |
8 | 97.96 | 97.6217701024718 | 0.338229897528208 |
9 | 98.27 | 97.9149575074894 | 0.355042492510592 |
10 | 99.52 | 98.2283033507468 | 1.29169664925318 |
11 | 99.59 | 99.4904760191335 | 0.0995239808664934 |
12 | 99.75 | 99.5614139114911 | 0.188586088508927 |
13 | 99.75 | 99.7231911057875 | 0.0268088942125075 |
14 | 99.8 | 99.7234437469779 | 0.0765562530221331 |
15 | 99.99 | 99.7741651964618 | 0.215834803538229 |
16 | 100.25 | 99.9661991767243 | 0.283800823275698 |
17 | 100.08 | 100.22887365398 | -0.148873653979948 |
18 | 100.08 | 100.057470701032 | 0.022529298967612 |
19 | 100.08 | 100.057683012248 | 0.0223169877523759 |
20 | 100.06 | 100.057893322688 | 0.00210667731187186 |
21 | 101 | 100.037913175557 | 0.962086824442906 |
22 | 101.81 | 100.986979672617 | 0.823020327382693 |
23 | 101.82 | 101.804735637245 | 0.0152643627554312 |
24 | 101.96 | 101.81487948528 | 0.145120514719551 |
25 | 101.96 | 101.95624706946 | 0.00375293054040071 |
26 | 101.93 | 101.956282436261 | -0.0262824362610559 |
27 | 102.03 | 101.926034756296 | 0.103965243704025 |
28 | 102.11 | 102.027014502149 | 0.082985497851098 |
29 | 102.07 | 102.107796539438 | -0.0377965394382613 |
30 | 102.34 | 102.067440353068 | 0.272559646931839 |
31 | 102.34 | 102.340008895922 | -8.8959219510798e-06 |
32 | 102.33 | 102.340008812089 | -0.0100088120887278 |
33 | 102.77 | 102.32991449122 | 0.440085508780328 |
34 | 103.08 | 102.774061761373 | 0.305938238627334 |
35 | 103.38 | 103.086944856818 | 0.293055143182457 |
36 | 103.44 | 103.389706544772 | 0.0502934552280578 |
37 | 99.1 | 103.450180499359 | -4.3501804993594 |
38 | 99.15 | 99.0691853441334 | 0.0808146558665612 |
39 | 99.21 | 99.1199469238799 | 0.0900530761200713 |
40 | 99.01 | 99.1807955644903 | -0.170795564490248 |
41 | 99.08 | 98.9791860242242 | 0.10081397577575 |
42 | 99.11 | 99.0501360732134 | 0.0598639267866474 |
43 | 100.11 | 99.080700217844 | 1.029299782156 |
44 | 100.31 | 100.090400115205 | 0.219599884795485 |
45 | 100.55 | 100.292469576774 | 0.257530423225745 |
46 | 101.38 | 100.534896487491 | 0.845103512508587 |
47 | 101.49 | 101.372860559254 | 0.117139440745959 |
48 | 101.5 | 101.483964455876 | 0.0160355441243922 |
49 | 100.69 | 101.494115571357 | -0.804115571357059 |
50 | 100.8 | 100.67653776104 | 0.123462238959604 |
51 | 100.58 | 100.787701242338 | -0.207701242337649 |
52 | 100.34 | 100.565743910987 | -0.225743910987489 |
53 | 100.38 | 100.323616549451 | 0.056383450549248 |
54 | 100.33 | 100.36414789483 | -0.034147894830042 |
55 | 101.06 | 100.313826092493 | 0.746173907506531 |
56 | 101.15 | 101.050857873167 | 0.0991421268325468 |
57 | 101.36 | 101.141792167016 | 0.218207832984376 |
58 | 101.98 | 101.353848510192 | 0.626151489808265 |
59 | 102.24 | 101.979749225696 | 0.260250774303827 |
60 | 102.34 | 102.24220177241 | 0.0977982275895499 |
61 | 101.91 | 102.343123401644 | -0.433123401644337 |
62 | 101.8 | 101.909041740875 | -0.109041740875313 |
63 | 101.8 | 101.798014155217 | 0.00198584478324904 |
64 | 101.73 | 101.798032869386 | -0.0680328693862293 |
65 | 101.8 | 101.727391742417 | 0.0726082575834113 |
66 | 101.81 | 101.79807598685 | 0.0119240131501641 |
67 | 102.28 | 101.808188356157 | 0.471811643842713 |
68 | 101.7 | 102.282634606509 | -0.58263460650933 |
69 | 101.7 | 101.697143984652 | 0.00285601534817204 |
70 | 102.37 | 101.69717089912 | 0.672829100880463 |
71 | 102.43 | 102.373511494282 | 0.0564885057177662 |
72 | 102.41 | 102.434043829679 | -0.0240438296786039 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 102.413817245855 | 101.171474070979 | 103.656160420731 |
74 | 102.41763449171 | 100.652398009015 | 104.182870974405 |
75 | 102.421451737566 | 100.249309025516 | 104.593594449616 |
76 | 102.425268983421 | 99.9053239317049 | 104.945214035137 |
77 | 102.429086229276 | 99.598522454904 | 105.259650003648 |
78 | 102.432903475131 | 99.3177176464279 | 105.548089303835 |
79 | 102.436720720987 | 99.056295955095 | 105.817145486878 |
80 | 102.440537966842 | 98.8099688700245 | 106.071107063659 |
81 | 102.444355212697 | 98.5757717524919 | 106.312938672902 |
82 | 102.448172458552 | 98.3515563186436 | 106.544788598461 |
83 | 102.451989704408 | 98.1357084891933 | 106.768270919622 |
84 | 102.455806950263 | 97.9269802461144 | 106.984633654411 |