Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.924039247655013 |
beta | 0.0247732549460181 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 99.75 | 98.5555555555556 | 1.19444444444444 |
14 | 99.8 | 99.7460434966052 | 0.0539565033947582 |
15 | 99.99 | 100.010577628446 | -0.0205776284462047 |
16 | 100.25 | 100.267851578554 | -0.0178515785539304 |
17 | 100.08 | 100.118069190393 | -0.0380691903925481 |
18 | 100.08 | 100.122066809388 | -0.0420668093879328 |
19 | 100.08 | 100.035574167522 | 0.0444258324775717 |
20 | 100.06 | 100.422521093535 | -0.362521093535037 |
21 | 101 | 100.428051117804 | 0.571948882195798 |
22 | 101.81 | 102.229744153617 | -0.419744153617287 |
23 | 101.82 | 101.924632012935 | -0.104632012934644 |
24 | 101.96 | 102.004550678131 | -0.0445506781309462 |
25 | 101.96 | 102.069281256645 | -0.109281256644735 |
26 | 101.93 | 101.957250078578 | -0.0272500785779926 |
27 | 102.03 | 102.128032454476 | -0.0980324544755007 |
28 | 102.11 | 102.299117105869 | -0.189117105868704 |
29 | 102.07 | 101.970797313404 | 0.099202686595973 |
30 | 102.34 | 102.085732635564 | 0.254267364436345 |
31 | 102.34 | 102.270814732102 | 0.0691852678983906 |
32 | 102.33 | 102.641475418371 | -0.311475418370577 |
33 | 102.77 | 102.758072267181 | 0.01192773281862 |
34 | 103.08 | 103.947049905561 | -0.867049905560748 |
35 | 103.38 | 103.222402241196 | 0.157597758803675 |
36 | 103.44 | 103.525054544607 | -0.0850545446070043 |
37 | 99.1 | 103.522372998569 | -4.42237299856876 |
38 | 99.15 | 99.3073059769339 | -0.157305976933856 |
39 | 99.21 | 99.2257568011632 | -0.0157568011631781 |
40 | 99.01 | 99.3410538218396 | -0.331053821839546 |
41 | 99.08 | 98.7753360779925 | 0.304663922007478 |
42 | 99.11 | 98.968463939265 | 0.141536060734964 |
43 | 100.11 | 98.9092977914612 | 1.20070220853883 |
44 | 100.31 | 100.196490222798 | 0.113509777202367 |
45 | 100.55 | 100.639965504858 | -0.0899655048581138 |
46 | 101.38 | 101.57529899108 | -0.195298991080193 |
47 | 101.49 | 101.471862904146 | 0.0181370958537599 |
48 | 101.5 | 101.546677932122 | -0.0466779321222361 |
49 | 100.69 | 101.170332308134 | -0.480332308133924 |
50 | 100.8 | 100.932422765164 | -0.13242276516435 |
51 | 100.58 | 100.89576791369 | -0.315767913690493 |
52 | 100.34 | 100.714174078544 | -0.374174078544357 |
53 | 100.38 | 100.160195423397 | 0.219804576602712 |
54 | 100.33 | 100.263870349778 | 0.0661296502219955 |
55 | 101.06 | 100.215106359624 | 0.844893640375531 |
56 | 101.15 | 101.082414359785 | 0.0675856402151567 |
57 | 101.36 | 101.458427136294 | -0.0984271362938074 |
58 | 101.98 | 102.368176167961 | -0.388176167961447 |
59 | 102.24 | 102.088547161052 | 0.151452838947648 |
60 | 102.34 | 102.27049995737 | 0.0695000426299117 |
61 | 101.91 | 101.960098300233 | -0.0500983002332163 |
62 | 101.8 | 102.147549692522 | -0.347549692521937 |
63 | 101.8 | 101.894637867749 | -0.0946378677486592 |
64 | 101.73 | 101.914458073463 | -0.184458073462935 |
65 | 101.8 | 101.586764170555 | 0.213235829444912 |
66 | 101.81 | 101.678406337632 | 0.131593662368417 |
67 | 102.28 | 101.75649801331 | 0.523501986690036 |
68 | 101.7 | 102.267634337668 | -0.567634337668224 |
69 | 101.7 | 102.029379082256 | -0.329379082256452 |
70 | 102.37 | 102.683733683835 | -0.313733683835039 |
71 | 102.43 | 102.495610963181 | -0.0656109631805464 |
72 | 102.41 | 102.447522067584 | -0.0375220675844474 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 102.003452084362 | 100.691517212152 | 103.315386956572 |
74 | 102.190057548214 | 100.383261830616 | 103.996853265812 |
75 | 102.260918479616 | 100.051083915415 | 104.470753043818 |
76 | 102.346943205282 | 99.7818796443639 | 104.9120067662 |
77 | 102.209705670693 | 99.319227953955 | 105.10018338743 |
78 | 102.083027423315 | 98.887545654636 | 105.278509191993 |
79 | 102.051198131741 | 98.5655013814263 | 105.536894882055 |
80 | 101.965637903699 | 98.2008537679043 | 105.730422039494 |
81 | 102.252914447355 | 98.2176373998022 | 106.288191494907 |
82 | 103.203273996865 | 98.904266032943 | 107.502281960786 |
83 | 103.321540236286 | 98.7641913014552 | 107.878889171116 |
84 | 103.335353164483 | 98.5239974070149 | 108.146708921951 |