Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999944876394625 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 97.73 | 97.78 | -0.0499999999999972 |
3 | 97.61 | 97.7300027561803 | -0.12000275618027 |
4 | 97.69 | 97.6100066149846 | 0.0799933850154133 |
5 | 97.68 | 97.6899955904762 | -0.00999559047620835 |
6 | 97.67 | 97.680000550993 | -0.0100005509929986 |
7 | 97.67 | 97.6700005512664 | -5.51266424508867e-07 |
8 | 97.96 | 97.6700000000304 | 0.289999999969609 |
9 | 98.27 | 97.9599840141544 | 0.310015985845553 |
10 | 99.52 | 98.2699829108011 | 1.25001708919886 |
11 | 99.59 | 99.5199310945513 | 0.0700689054487356 |
12 | 99.75 | 99.5899961375493 | 0.160003862450679 |
13 | 99.75 | 99.7499911800102 | 8.81998977320109e-06 |
14 | 99.8 | 99.7499999995138 | 0.0500000004861931 |
15 | 99.99 | 99.7999972438197 | 0.190002756180291 |
16 | 100.25 | 99.989989526363 | 0.260010473636953 |
17 | 100.08 | 100.249985667285 | -0.16998566728526 |
18 | 100.08 | 100.080009370223 | -9.37022284119848e-06 |
19 | 100.08 | 100.080000000517 | -5.16521936333447e-10 |
20 | 100.06 | 100.08 | -0.0200000000000244 |
21 | 101 | 100.060001102472 | 0.939998897527886 |
22 | 101.81 | 100.999948183872 | 0.810051816128279 |
23 | 101.82 | 101.809955347023 | 0.0100446529766316 |
24 | 101.96 | 101.819999446303 | 0.14000055369749 |
25 | 101.96 | 101.959992282665 | 7.71733527926699e-06 |
26 | 101.93 | 101.959999999575 | -0.029999999574585 |
27 | 102.03 | 101.930001653708 | 0.0999983462918692 |
28 | 102.11 | 102.029994487731 | 0.0800055122693806 |
29 | 102.07 | 102.109995589808 | -0.0399955898077167 |
30 | 102.34 | 102.070002204701 | 0.269997795298892 |
31 | 102.34 | 102.339985116748 | 1.48832519215603e-05 |
32 | 102.33 | 102.33999999918 | -0.00999999917958405 |
33 | 102.77 | 102.330000551236 | 0.439999448763984 |
34 | 103.08 | 102.769975745644 | 0.31002425435598 |
35 | 103.38 | 103.079982910345 | 0.300017089654645 |
36 | 103.44 | 103.379983461976 | 0.0600165380236461 |
37 | 99.1 | 103.439996691672 | -4.33999669167204 |
38 | 99.15 | 99.100239236265 | 0.0497607637350512 |
39 | 99.21 | 99.1499972570073 | 0.0600027429926939 |
40 | 99.01 | 99.2099966924325 | -0.199996692432464 |
41 | 99.08 | 99.0100110245388 | 0.0699889754612428 |
42 | 99.11 | 99.0799961419553 | 0.0300038580446653 |
43 | 100.11 | 99.1099983460792 | 1.00000165392083 |
44 | 100.31 | 100.109944876303 | 0.200055123696544 |
45 | 100.55 | 100.30998897224 | 0.240011027759678 |
46 | 101.38 | 100.549986769727 | 0.830013230273181 |
47 | 101.49 | 101.379954246678 | 0.110045753321756 |
48 | 101.5 | 101.489993933881 | 0.0100060661186774 |
49 | 100.69 | 101.49999944843 | -0.809999448429565 |
50 | 100.8 | 100.69004465009 | 0.109955349910038 |
51 | 100.58 | 100.799993938865 | -0.219993938864675 |
52 | 100.34 | 100.580012126859 | -0.240012126859071 |
53 | 100.38 | 100.340013230334 | 0.0399867696662284 |
54 | 100.33 | 100.379997795785 | -0.0499977957850888 |
55 | 101.06 | 100.330002756059 | 0.729997243941241 |
56 | 101.15 | 101.05995975992 | 0.0900402400800004 |
57 | 101.36 | 101.149995036657 | 0.210004963342655 |
58 | 101.98 | 101.359988423769 | 0.620011576230723 |
59 | 102.24 | 101.979965822727 | 0.260034177273454 |
60 | 102.34 | 102.239985665979 | 0.100014334021381 |
61 | 101.91 | 102.339994486849 | -0.429994486849324 |
62 | 101.8 | 101.910023702846 | -0.110023702846405 |
63 | 101.8 | 101.800006064903 | -6.06490317522912e-06 |
64 | 101.73 | 101.800000000334 | -0.0700000003343035 |
65 | 101.8 | 101.730003858652 | 0.0699961413476018 |
66 | 101.81 | 101.79999614156 | 0.0100038584396884 |
67 | 102.28 | 101.809999448551 | 0.470000551448734 |
68 | 101.7 | 102.279974091875 | -0.579974091875073 |
69 | 101.7 | 101.700031970263 | -3.19702629667518e-05 |
70 | 102.37 | 101.700000001762 | 0.669999998237685 |
71 | 102.43 | 102.369963067185 | 0.0600369328155068 |
72 | 102.41 | 102.429996690548 | -0.0199966905478135 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 102.41000110229 | 101.183904682399 | 103.63609752218 |
74 | 102.41000110229 | 100.676086706968 | 104.143915497611 |
75 | 102.41000110229 | 100.286417849922 | 104.533584354658 |
76 | 102.41000110229 | 99.9579096420923 | 104.862092562487 |
77 | 102.41000110229 | 99.6684870628203 | 105.151515141759 |
78 | 102.41000110229 | 99.4068284585607 | 105.413173746019 |
79 | 102.41000110229 | 99.1662081638491 | 105.65379404073 |
80 | 102.41000110229 | 98.9422439990727 | 105.877758205507 |
81 | 102.41000110229 | 98.7318920736791 | 106.0881101309 |
82 | 102.41000110229 | 98.5329361394884 | 106.287066065091 |
83 | 102.41000110229 | 98.343703102239 | 106.47629910234 |
84 | 102.41000110229 | 98.1628931304281 | 106.657109074151 |