| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.450263840526657 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 48191 | 37729 | 10462 |
| 3 | 52498 | 42439.6602995899 | 10058.3397004101 |
| 4 | 57319 | 46968.5669624183 | 10350.4330375817 |
| 5 | 44377 | 51628.9926930338 | -7251.99269303382 |
| 6 | 48081 | 48363.6826115971 | -282.682611597149 |
| 7 | 52597 | 48236.4008532493 | 4360.59914675069 |
| 8 | 53331 | 50199.8209720625 | 3131.17902793747 |
| 9 | 39587 | 51609.6776665582 | -12022.6776665582 |
| 10 | 46278 | 46196.3006469996 | 81.699353000382 |
| 11 | 50365 | 46233.0869114501 | 4131.91308854989 |
| 12 | 57176 | 48093.5379674229 | 9082.46203257705 |
| 13 | 39251 | 52183.0422036486 | -12932.0422036486 |
| 14 | 47946 | 46360.211215181 | 1585.78878481901 |
| 15 | 50427 | 47074.2345636977 | 3352.7654363023 |
| 16 | 54317 | 48583.8636054322 | 5733.1363945678 |
| 17 | 41210 | 51165.2876167134 | -9955.28761671345 |
| 18 | 50592 | 46682.7815808646 | 3909.21841913542 |
| 19 | 55728 | 48442.961279722 | 7285.03872027797 |
| 20 | 59099 | 51723.1507922998 | 7375.84920770021 |
| 21 | 47519 | 55044.2289837044 | -7525.22898370439 |
| 22 | 53203 | 51655.8904806591 | 1547.10951934087 |
| 23 | 53882 | 52352.4979545529 | 1529.50204544711 |
| 24 | 55163 | 53041.1774196293 | 2121.82258037072 |
| 25 | 45255 | 53996.5574035832 | -8741.55740358318 |
| 26 | 50423 | 50060.5501948616 | 362.449805138414 |
| 27 | 52161 | 50223.7482361213 | 1937.25176387865 |
| 28 | 54562 | 51096.0226553924 | 3465.97734460761 |
| 29 | 40971 | 52656.6269257538 | -11685.6269257538 |
| 30 | 48014 | 47395.0116672022 | 618.988332797824 |
| 31 | 48440 | 47673.7197311689 | 766.280268831091 |
| 32 | 44967 | 48018.7480279326 | -3051.7480279326 |
| 33 | 27218 | 46644.656240556 | -19426.656240556 |
| 34 | 30269 | 37897.5353930921 | -7628.53539309211 |
| 35 | 33234 | 34462.6817494049 | -1228.68174940492 |
| 36 | 36811 | 33909.4507861329 | 2901.54921386715 |
| 37 | 27745 | 35215.9134786458 | -7470.91347864577 |
| 38 | 31891 | 31852.0312835084 | 38.9687164916395 |
| 39 | 32398 | 31869.5774874563 | 528.422512543719 |
| 40 | 34093 | 32107.507037375 | 1985.49296262504 |
| 41 | 28358 | 33001.5027240652 | -4643.50272406516 |
| 42 | 29532 | 30910.7013540316 | -1378.70135403159 |
| 43 | 30769 | 30289.921987426 | 479.078012573977 |
| 44 | 32080 | 30505.6334932795 | 1574.36650672054 |
| 45 | 23951 | 31214.513802992 | -7263.51380299199 |
| 46 | 34628 | 27944.0161823384 | 6683.98381766157 |
| 47 | 22978 | 30953.5724060968 | -7975.57240609676 |
| 48 | 35704 | 27362.4605441292 | 8341.5394558708 |
| 49 | 23090 | 31118.3541354342 | -8028.35413543422 |
| 50 | 22111 | 27503.4765693055 | -5392.47656930554 |
| 51 | 28925 | 25075.43935926 | 3849.56064073998 |
| 52 | 35968 | 26808.7573176999 | 9159.24268230014 |
| 53 | 28963 | 30932.833104148 | -1969.833104148 |
| 54 | 34074 | 30045.8884854778 | 4028.11151452223 |
| 55 | 39160 | 31859.6014460762 | 7300.39855392381 |
| 56 | 51314 | 35146.7069363412 | 16167.2930636588 |
| 57 | 34527 | 42426.2544021042 | -7899.25440210418 |
| 58 | 40722 | 38869.5057777156 | 1852.49422228435 |
| 59 | 50609 | 39703.6169407948 | 10905.3830592052 |
| 60 | 52435 | 44613.9165994469 | 7821.08340055311 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 48135.4676484592 | 34251.7111297139 | 62019.2241672045 |
| 62 | 48135.4676484592 | 32909.2364653269 | 63361.6988315915 |
| 63 | 48135.4676484592 | 31675.894840741 | 64595.0404561774 |
| 64 | 48135.4676484592 | 30528.7371744909 | 65742.1981224275 |
