| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.61566080892384 |
| beta | 0.159485866959751 |
| gamma | 0.242404043620847 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 5 | 44377 | 43590.88125 | 786.118750000001 |
| 6 | 48081 | 48440.9646250238 | -359.964625023837 |
| 7 | 52597 | 53106.7297444957 | -509.729744495686 |
| 8 | 53331 | 56887.2403946253 | -3556.24039462529 |
| 9 | 39587 | 41571.8134891226 | -1984.8134891226 |
| 10 | 46278 | 43979.7009653226 | 2298.29903467739 |
| 11 | 50365 | 49899.6484642448 | 465.351535755231 |
| 12 | 57176 | 53723.9381364273 | 3452.06186357269 |
| 13 | 39251 | 43285.0794174586 | -4034.0794174586 |
| 14 | 47946 | 45044.5647507785 | 2901.43524922147 |
| 15 | 50427 | 51438.5065971457 | -1011.5065971457 |
| 16 | 54317 | 54760.2333230066 | -443.2333230066 |
| 17 | 41210 | 40971.6916977106 | 238.308302289413 |
| 18 | 50592 | 46173.1176836415 | 4418.88231635848 |
| 19 | 55728 | 53451.1875934378 | 2276.81240656216 |
| 20 | 59099 | 59487.6703198442 | -388.670319844234 |
| 21 | 47519 | 46438.8980457515 | 1080.10195424854 |
| 22 | 53203 | 53273.4041456607 | -70.4041456606501 |
| 23 | 53882 | 57872.5661512554 | -3990.56615125536 |
| 24 | 55163 | 59471.2865312792 | -4308.28653127923 |
| 25 | 45255 | 43430.4826178952 | 1824.51738210482 |
| 26 | 50423 | 49973.4860747189 | 449.513925281091 |
| 27 | 52161 | 53935.9455227978 | -1774.9455227978 |
| 28 | 54562 | 56495.1137873396 | -1933.1137873396 |
| 29 | 40971 | 42347.1695580153 | -1376.16955801527 |
| 30 | 48014 | 46336.4538502425 | 1677.5461497575 |
| 31 | 48440 | 50513.222571015 | -2073.22257101501 |
| 32 | 44967 | 52510.2305136375 | -7543.23051363749 |
| 33 | 27218 | 34045.6053110032 | -6827.6053110032 |
| 34 | 30269 | 33513.2428311934 | -3244.24283119343 |
| 35 | 33234 | 32377.2386910211 | 856.761308978865 |
| 36 | 36811 | 34023.0218055206 | 2787.97819447944 |
| 37 | 27745 | 21354.5157611368 | 6390.48423886322 |
| 38 | 31891 | 29960.6592601496 | 1930.34073985045 |
| 39 | 32398 | 33567.4041903228 | -1169.40419032281 |
| 40 | 34093 | 35121.6207713782 | -1028.62077137823 |
| 41 | 28358 | 21040.2059657931 | 7317.79403420688 |
| 42 | 29532 | 30493.9714535087 | -961.971453508726 |
| 43 | 30769 | 32439.4950363053 | -1670.49503630532 |
| 44 | 32080 | 34057.3748665307 | -1977.37486653073 |
| 45 | 23951 | 20435.3379057937 | 3515.66209420631 |
| 46 | 34628 | 26669.4557350074 | 7958.54426499261 |
| 47 | 22978 | 34809.4430753346 | -11831.4430753346 |
| 48 | 35704 | 29913.8012036234 | 5790.19879637664 |
| 49 | 23090 | 22119.1739593099 | 970.826040690095 |
| 50 | 22111 | 27484.0415223843 | -5373.04152238429 |
| 51 | 28925 | 24547.1174630051 | 4377.88253699488 |
| 52 | 35968 | 31838.7947090165 | 4129.20529098352 |
| 53 | 28963 | 22975.6143171566 | 5987.38568284338 |
| 54 | 34074 | 31733.5783434862 | 2340.42165651383 |
| 55 | 39160 | 36106.9846042592 | 3053.0153957408 |
| 56 | 51314 | 44082.7421764646 | 7231.25782353544 |
| 57 | 34527 | 39129.9972879982 | -4602.99728799818 |
| 58 | 40722 | 41815.7508517228 | -1093.75085172278 |
| 59 | 50609 | 44591.7061580878 | 6017.29384191218 |
| 60 | 52435 | 55523.2268455693 | -3088.22684556928 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 42842.8804826952 | 35118.4014589394 | 50567.359506451 |
| 62 | 48869.6675571208 | 39378.9832306364 | 58360.3518836052 |
| 63 | 53269.1082751698 | 41892.8898187781 | 64645.3267315615 |
| 64 | 59344.46721095 | 45970.8411996301 | 72718.0932222699 |
