Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999927492131497 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 86.84 | 86.37 | 0.469999999999999 |
3 | 86.73 | 86.8399659213018 | -0.109965921301807 |
4 | 90.99 | 86.7300079733946 | 4.25999202660543 |
5 | 92.61 | 90.9896911170583 | 1.6203088829417 |
6 | 93.83 | 92.6098825148566 | 1.22011748514342 |
7 | 94.2 | 93.8299115318818 | 0.370088468118183 |
8 | 94.01 | 94.199973165674 | -0.189973165674019 |
9 | 93.47 | 94.0100137745493 | -0.540013774549323 |
10 | 93.27 | 93.4700391552477 | -0.200039155247751 |
11 | 94.3 | 93.2700145044128 | 1.02998549558724 |
12 | 94.53 | 94.2999253179471 | 0.230074682052873 |
13 | 94.59 | 94.5299833177752 | 0.0600166822247843 |
14 | 94.69 | 94.5899956483183 | 0.10000435168169 |
15 | 94.67 | 94.6899927488976 | -0.0199927488976215 |
16 | 96.55 | 94.6700014496316 | 1.87999855036838 |
17 | 97.14 | 96.5498636853123 | 0.590136314687683 |
18 | 97.32 | 97.1399572104737 | 0.180042789526297 |
19 | 97.97 | 97.3199869454811 | 0.650013054518922 |
20 | 98.49 | 97.9699528689389 | 0.520047131061077 |
21 | 99.11 | 98.489962292491 | 0.620037707508999 |
22 | 99.09 | 99.1099550423874 | -0.0199550423874371 |
23 | 98.76 | 99.0900014468976 | -0.330001446897597 |
24 | 99.2 | 98.7600239277015 | 0.439976072298478 |
25 | 99.61 | 99.1999680982728 | 0.410031901727194 |
26 | 99.54 | 99.6099702694608 | -0.0699702694607822 |
27 | 99.68 | 99.5400050733951 | 0.139994926604913 |
28 | 100.75 | 99.6799898492663 | 1.07001015073372 |
29 | 100.38 | 100.749922415845 | -0.369922415844698 |
30 | 100.79 | 100.380026822286 | 0.409973177714122 |
31 | 100.39 | 100.789970273719 | -0.399970273718736 |
32 | 100.39 | 100.390029000992 | -2.90009920149714e-05 |
33 | 100.12 | 100.390000002103 | -0.27000000210279 |
34 | 100 | 100.120019577125 | -0.120019577124651 |
35 | 99.17 | 100.000008702364 | -0.830008702363713 |
36 | 99.17 | 99.1700601821619 | -6.01821618602116e-05 |
37 | 99.59 | 99.1700000043637 | 0.419999995636317 |
38 | 99.96 | 99.5899695466956 | 0.370030453304437 |
39 | 99.68 | 99.9599731698805 | -0.279973169880535 |
40 | 101.03 | 99.6800203002578 | 1.34997969974221 |
41 | 100.99 | 101.029902115849 | -0.0399021158494435 |
42 | 101.38 | 100.990002893217 | 0.38999710678263 |
43 | 101.84 | 101.379971722141 | 0.460028277858939 |
44 | 101.52 | 101.83996664433 | -0.319966644330123 |
45 | 101.37 | 101.520023200099 | -0.150023200099369 |
46 | 101.22 | 101.370010877862 | -0.150010877862471 |
47 | 101.45 | 101.220010876969 | 0.22998912303099 |
48 | 101.99 | 101.449983323979 | 0.540016676021068 |
49 | 104.05 | 101.989960844542 | 2.06003915545813 |
50 | 104.61 | 104.049850630952 | 0.56014936904819 |
51 | 105.06 | 104.609959384763 | 0.450040615236787 |
52 | 105.4 | 105.059967368514 | 0.340032631485741 |
53 | 104.71 | 105.399975344959 | -0.689975344958683 |
54 | 104.8 | 104.710050028642 | 0.089949971358422 |
55 | 104.83 | 104.799993477919 | 0.0300065220806971 |
56 | 104.81 | 104.829997824291 | -0.019997824291039 |
57 | 104.49 | 104.81000145 | -0.320001449999623 |
58 | 104.59 | 104.490023202623 | 0.0999767973769536 |
59 | 104.5 | 104.589992750896 | -0.0899927508955329 |
60 | 104.61 | 104.500006525183 | 0.109993474817458 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 104.609992024608 | 103.089054084635 | 106.130929964581 |
62 | 104.609992024608 | 102.45913894067 | 106.760845108545 |
63 | 104.609992024608 | 101.975777576215 | 107.244206473 |
64 | 104.609992024608 | 101.568281563115 | 107.651702486101 |
65 | 104.609992024608 | 101.209268674643 | 108.010715374572 |
66 | 104.609992024608 | 100.884695247916 | 108.335288801299 |
67 | 104.609992024608 | 100.586218566041 | 108.633765483174 |
68 | 104.609992024608 | 100.308402827892 | 108.911581221323 |
69 | 104.609992024608 | 100.047472283419 | 109.172511765796 |
70 | 104.609992024608 | 99.8006778156824 | 109.419306233533 |
71 | 104.609992024608 | 99.5659440538201 | 109.654039995395 |
72 | 104.609992024608 | 99.3416586350962 | 109.878325414119 |