Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0 |
beta | 0 |
gamma | 1 |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
13 | 94.4 | 93.1625534188035 | 1.23744658119655 |
14 | 91.6 | 90.4422154234654 | 1.15778457653455 |
15 | 104.1 | 102.755210761461 | 1.34478923853921 |
16 | 107.8 | 106.434872766123 | 1.3651272338772 |
17 | 101.7 | 100.368701437451 | 1.33129856254854 |
18 | 104.1 | 102.810863442113 | 1.28913655788654 |
19 | 102 | 105.157192113442 | -3.15719211344212 |
20 | 99.9 | 96.1201874514375 | 3.77981254856253 |
21 | 101.6 | 98.4581827894328 | 3.1418172105672 |
22 | 101.3 | 101.267011460761 | 0.0329885392385307 |
23 | 101 | 98.9591734654235 | 2.04082653457651 |
24 | 115.9 | 116.130502136752 | -0.230502136752136 |
25 | 97.5 | 96.805944055944 | 0.694055944055975 |
26 | 97.6 | 94.005944055944 | 3.59405594405598 |
27 | 109.2 | 106.505944055944 | 2.69405594405599 |
28 | 101.6 | 110.205944055944 | -8.60594405594402 |
29 | 108.8 | 104.105944055944 | 4.69405594405598 |
30 | 108.8 | 106.505944055944 | 2.29405594405598 |
31 | 100.9 | 104.405944055944 | -3.50594405594401 |
32 | 107.4 | 102.305944055944 | 5.09405594405598 |
33 | 101.7 | 104.005944055944 | -2.30594405594401 |
34 | 104.5 | 103.705944055944 | 0.794055944055984 |
35 | 106.1 | 103.405944055944 | 2.69405594405598 |
36 | 116.7 | 118.305944055944 | -1.60594405594402 |
37 | 103.7 | 99.905944055944 | 3.79405594405598 |
38 | 96.5 | 100.005944055944 | -3.50594405594401 |
39 | 114.1 | 111.605944055944 | 2.49405594405597 |
40 | 102.8 | 104.005944055944 | -1.20594405594402 |
41 | 114.5 | 111.205944055944 | 3.29405594405598 |
42 | 107.2 | 111.205944055944 | -4.00594405594401 |
43 | 107.9 | 103.305944055944 | 4.59405594405598 |
44 | 111.3 | 109.805944055944 | 1.49405594405597 |
45 | 99.8 | 104.105944055944 | -4.30594405594402 |
46 | 106.7 | 106.905944055944 | -0.205944055944016 |
47 | 106.9 | 108.505944055944 | -1.60594405594401 |
48 | 115.3 | 119.105944055944 | -3.80594405594402 |
49 | 106.1 | 106.105944055944 | -0.00594405594402758 |
50 | 97.3 | 98.905944055944 | -1.60594405594402 |
51 | 109 | 116.505944055944 | -7.50594405594401 |
52 | 109.8 | 105.205944055944 | 4.59405594405598 |
53 | 116.5 | 116.905944055944 | -0.405944055944019 |
54 | 108.3 | 109.605944055944 | -1.30594405594402 |
55 | 110.8 | 110.305944055944 | 0.494055944055972 |
56 | 108.7 | 113.705944055944 | -5.00594405594401 |
57 | 104 | 102.205944055944 | 1.79405594405598 |
58 | 111.3 | 109.105944055944 | 2.19405594405598 |
59 | 106.5 | 109.305944055944 | -2.80594405594402 |
60 | 120.5 | 117.705944055944 | 2.79405594405598 |
61 | 110 | 108.505944055944 | 1.49405594405599 |
62 | 99.7 | 99.705944055944 | -0.00594405594401337 |
63 | 109 | 111.405944055944 | -2.40594405594402 |
64 | 112.2 | 112.205944055944 | -0.00594405594401337 |
65 | 116 | 118.905944055944 | -2.90594405594402 |
66 | 112.3 | 110.705944055944 | 1.59405594405598 |
67 | 113.2 | 113.205944055944 | -0.00594405594401337 |
68 | 109.9 | 111.105944055944 | -1.20594405594402 |
69 | 107.6 | 106.405944055944 | 1.19405594405598 |
70 | 114.9 | 113.705944055944 | 1.19405594405599 |
71 | 105.7 | 108.905944055944 | -3.20594405594402 |
72 | 123.3 | 122.905944055944 | 0.394055944055978 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 112.405944055944 | 106.65132407761 | 118.160564034278 |
74 | 102.105944055944 | 96.3513240776105 | 107.860564034278 |
75 | 111.405944055944 | 105.65132407761 | 117.160564034278 |
76 | 114.605944055944 | 108.85132407761 | 120.360564034278 |
77 | 118.405944055944 | 112.65132407761 | 124.160564034278 |
78 | 114.705944055944 | 108.95132407761 | 120.460564034278 |
79 | 115.605944055944 | 109.85132407761 | 121.360564034278 |
80 | 112.305944055944 | 106.55132407761 | 118.060564034278 |
81 | 110.005944055944 | 104.25132407761 | 115.760564034278 |
82 | 117.305944055944 | 111.55132407761 | 123.060564034278 |
83 | 108.105944055944 | 102.35132407761 | 113.860564034278 |
84 | 125.705944055944 | 119.95132407761 | 131.460564034278 |