| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.365097977965628 |
| beta | 0.0948596984459278 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 301601 | 260781 | 40820 |
| 4 | 322421 | 271205.021953235 | 51215.9780467653 |
| 5 | 313776 | 287198.361744919 | 26577.6382550807 |
| 6 | 300156 | 295116.759078912 | 5039.24092108774 |
| 7 | 315745 | 295346.055552229 | 20398.9444477708 |
| 8 | 299214 | 301889.627083759 | -2675.62708375853 |
| 9 | 295184 | 299916.05398891 | -4732.05398890981 |
| 10 | 340003 | 297027.797965426 | 42975.2020345744 |
| 11 | 332748 | 313045.728436383 | 19702.2715636173 |
| 12 | 316337 | 321249.109478945 | -4912.10947894526 |
| 13 | 293572 | 320295.708273334 | -26723.7082733342 |
| 14 | 308713 | 310453.412015786 | -1740.41201578605 |
| 15 | 354188 | 309672.190869086 | 44515.8091309143 |
| 16 | 334540 | 327320.742292477 | 7219.25770752283 |
| 17 | 313285 | 331602.423365371 | -18317.4233653712 |
| 18 | 337881 | 325926.324950818 | 11954.6750491821 |
| 19 | 356955 | 331716.535722478 | 25238.4642775222 |
| 20 | 323661 | 343230.716936829 | -19569.7169368287 |
| 21 | 296034 | 337707.762141153 | -41673.7621411526 |
| 22 | 377623 | 322671.374227809 | 54951.6257721908 |
| 23 | 342590 | 344815.864338189 | -2225.86433818931 |
| 24 | 300905 | 346007.879877316 | -45102.8798773158 |
| 25 | 309470 | 329983.531910277 | -20513.5319102771 |
| 26 | 271492 | 322226.258289804 | -50734.2582898037 |
| 27 | 307759 | 301678.374741764 | 6080.62525823608 |
| 28 | 326106 | 302084.081101373 | 24021.9188986272 |
| 29 | 335576 | 309872.070628468 | 25703.9293715316 |
| 30 | 310485 | 319164.365125584 | -8679.36512558413 |
| 31 | 335173 | 315602.795143738 | 19570.2048562624 |
| 32 | 298344 | 323032.862591167 | -24688.8625911667 |
| 33 | 288269 | 313448.982552614 | -25179.9825526137 |
| 34 | 319410 | 302813.735155992 | 16596.264844008 |
| 35 | 327692 | 308005.691046842 | 19686.3089531584 |
| 36 | 315401 | 315007.613387223 | 393.386612777133 |
| 37 | 277720 | 314979.352983724 | -37259.3529837244 |
| 38 | 260573 | 299913.747183539 | -39340.7471835394 |
| 39 | 318025 | 282725.737164162 | 35299.2628358379 |
| 40 | 300264 | 294011.166216409 | 6252.83378359053 |
| 41 | 317640 | 294908.357672806 | 22731.6423271939 |
| 42 | 303273 | 302609.195688046 | 663.804311954358 |
| 43 | 315089 | 302276.100256405 | 12812.8997435946 |
| 44 | 275840 | 306822.365235264 | -30982.3652352641 |
| 45 | 292823 | 294306.052665278 | -1483.05266527837 |
| 46 | 339759 | 292508.5167783 | 47250.4832217005 |
| 47 | 328032 | 310139.926261626 | 17892.0737383742 |
| 48 | 344675 | 317672.297500683 | 27002.7024993173 |
| 49 | 260952 | 329466.127744754 | -68514.1277447536 |
| 50 | 275466 | 304014.100857283 | -28548.1008572829 |
| 51 | 331940 | 292164.880796061 | 39775.1192039392 |
| 52 | 347644 | 306637.865275492 | 41006.1347245078 |
| 53 | 338063 | 322980.459944572 | 15082.5400554282 |
| 54 | 384283 | 330380.757496446 | 53902.2425035539 |
| 55 | 398482 | 353820.850814787 | 44661.1491852127 |
| 56 | 347062 | 375433.792983834 | -28371.7929838337 |
| 57 | 350731 | 369399.952949801 | -18668.9529498012 |
| 58 | 368799 | 366262.036775279 | 2536.96322472149 |
| 59 | 387710 | 370954.220577685 | 16755.7794223147 |
| 60 | 362988 | 381417.969740676 | -18429.9697406758 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 61 | 378397.186339192 | 320985.755638418 | 435808.617039965 |
| 62 | 382105.147623996 | 320276.877048238 | 443933.418199754 |
| 63 | 385813.1089088 | 319145.183288303 | 452481.034529298 |
| 64 | 389521.070193605 | 317621.062412168 | 461421.077975041 |
| 65 | 393229.031478409 | 315732.977184735 | 470725.085772084 |
| 66 | 396936.992763213 | 313506.775250011 | 480367.210276416 |
| 67 | 400644.954048018 | 310965.489508944 | 490324.418587091 |
| 68 | 404352.915332822 | 308129.420906359 | 500576.409759285 |
| 69 | 408060.876617626 | 305016.363398427 | 511105.389836826 |
| 70 | 411768.837902431 | 301641.884860728 | 521895.790944134 |
| 71 | 415476.799187235 | 298019.615175145 | 532933.983199326 |
| 72 | 419184.760472039 | 294161.516531597 | 544208.004412482 |
