Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999955490141846 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 76.31 | 75.99 | 0.320000000000007 |
3 | 76.51 | 76.3099857568454 | 0.200014243154598 |
4 | 76.75 | 76.5099910973944 | 0.240008902605595 |
5 | 77.23 | 76.7499893172378 | 0.480010682762213 |
6 | 77.22 | 77.2299786347926 | -0.00997863479260275 |
7 | 77.25 | 77.2200004441476 | 0.0299995558523705 |
8 | 77.36 | 77.249998664724 | 0.110001335275982 |
9 | 77.57 | 77.3599951038562 | 0.210004896143815 |
10 | 77.88 | 77.5699906527119 | 0.310009347288144 |
11 | 78.29 | 77.8799862015279 | 0.410013798472093 |
12 | 78.42 | 78.289981750344 | 0.130018249656004 |
13 | 78.96 | 78.4199942129061 | 0.540005787093847 |
14 | 79.85 | 78.959975964419 | 0.890024035580979 |
15 | 80.05 | 79.8499603851564 | 0.20003961484359 |
16 | 80.16 | 80.0499910962651 | 0.110008903734879 |
17 | 80.29 | 80.1599951035193 | 0.130004896480713 |
18 | 80.36 | 80.2899942135005 | 0.0700057864994932 |
19 | 80.48 | 80.3599968840524 | 0.120003115947625 |
20 | 80.95 | 80.4799946586783 | 0.470005341321666 |
21 | 82.3 | 80.9499790801289 | 1.35002091987107 |
22 | 84.81 | 82.2999399107604 | 2.51006008923964 |
23 | 85.4 | 84.8098882775815 | 0.590111722418527 |
24 | 86.13 | 85.3999737342109 | 0.73002626578905 |
25 | 87.02 | 86.1299675066345 | 0.890032493365538 |
26 | 87.38 | 87.01996038478 | 0.360039615220032 |
27 | 87.5 | 87.3799839746878 | 0.120016025312196 |
28 | 87.91 | 87.4999946581037 | 0.410005341896266 |
29 | 88.06 | 87.9099817507204 | 0.150018249279611 |
30 | 88.09 | 88.059993322709 | 0.0300066772909986 |
31 | 88.16 | 88.089998664407 | 0.0700013355929485 |
32 | 88.33 | 88.1599968842505 | 0.170003115749509 |
33 | 88.52 | 88.3299924331854 | 0.190007566814558 |
34 | 88.96 | 88.5199915427902 | 0.440008457209842 |
35 | 89.26 | 88.959980415286 | 0.300019584714036 |
36 | 89.34 | 89.2599866461709 | 0.0800133538291448 |
37 | 89.09 | 89.339996438617 | -0.249996438616975 |
38 | 89.25 | 89.090011127306 | 0.159988872693972 |
39 | 89.31 | 89.249992878918 | 0.0600071210820232 |
40 | 89.28 | 89.3099973290915 | -0.0299973290915432 |
41 | 89.32 | 89.2800013351769 | 0.0399986648231305 |
42 | 89.47 | 89.3199982196651 | 0.150001780334904 |
43 | 89.59 | 89.469993323442 | 0.120006676557963 |
44 | 89.62 | 89.5899946585198 | 0.0300053414801624 |
45 | 89.71 | 89.6199986644665 | 0.0900013355334721 |
46 | 89.9 | 89.7099959940533 | 0.19000400594669 |
47 | 90.04 | 89.8999915429487 | 0.140008457051351 |
48 | 90.05 | 90.0399937682434 | 0.010006231756563 |
49 | 90.18 | 90.049999554624 | 0.13000044537597 |
50 | 90.5 | 90.1799942136986 | 0.32000578630138 |
51 | 90.63 | 90.4999857565878 | 0.130014243412163 |
52 | 90.75 | 90.6299942130845 | 0.120005786915527 |
53 | 90.76 | 90.7499946585594 | 0.0100053414405608 |
54 | 90.67 | 90.7599995546637 | -0.0899995546636774 |
55 | 90.5 | 90.6700040058674 | -0.170004005867412 |
56 | 90.8 | 90.5000075668542 | 0.299992433145817 |
57 | 91.22 | 90.7999866473794 | 0.420013352620643 |
58 | 92.19 | 91.2199813052653 | 0.970018694734748 |
59 | 92.51 | 92.1899568246055 | 0.320043175394517 |
60 | 92.67 | 92.5099857549237 | 0.160014245076326 |
61 | 93.75 | 92.6699928777886 | 1.08000712221136 |
62 | 94.1 | 93.7499519290362 | 0.350048070963823 |
63 | 94.96 | 94.09998441941 | 0.860015580589987 |
64 | 95.21 | 94.9599617208285 | 0.250038279171505 |
65 | 95.33 | 95.2099888708317 | 0.120011129168333 |
66 | 95.43 | 95.3299946583217 | 0.10000534167834 |
67 | 95.44 | 95.4299955487764 | 0.0100044512235655 |
68 | 95.64 | 95.4399995547033 | 0.200000445296709 |
69 | 95.8 | 95.6399910980086 | 0.160008901991446 |
70 | 95.87 | 95.7999928780265 | 0.0700071219735321 |
71 | 95.98 | 95.8699968839929 | 0.110003116007064 |
72 | 96.07 | 95.9799951037769 | 0.0900048962230784 |
73 | 96.23 | 96.0699959938948 | 0.160004006105169 |
74 | 96.32 | 96.2299928782444 | 0.0900071217556047 |
75 | 96.55 | 96.3199959937958 | 0.230004006204226 |
76 | 96.73 | 96.5499897625543 | 0.1800102374457 |
77 | 96.61 | 96.7299919877699 | -0.119991987769865 |
78 | 96.64 | 96.6100053408264 | 0.0299946591736386 |
79 | 96.86 | 96.639998664942 | 0.220001335058029 |
80 | 97.02 | 96.8599902077718 | 0.160009792228223 |
81 | 97.22 | 97.0199928779868 | 0.200007122013162 |
82 | 98.1 | 97.2199910977114 | 0.880008902288623 |
83 | 98.46 | 98.0999608309286 | 0.360039169071413 |
84 | 98.6 | 98.4599839747076 | 0.140016025292354 |
85 | 98.78 | 98.5999937679066 | 0.180006232093433 |
86 | 99.13 | 98.7799919879482 | 0.350008012051845 |
87 | 99.48 | 99.129984421193 | 0.350015578806975 |
88 | 99.62 | 99.4799844208562 | 0.140015579143764 |
89 | 99.68 | 99.6199937679264 | 0.0600062320735759 |
90 | 99.95 | 99.6799973291311 | 0.270002670868877 |
91 | 100.12 | 99.9499879822194 | 0.170012017780579 |
92 | 100.25 | 100.119992432789 | 0.130007567210797 |
93 | 100.47 | 100.249994213382 | 0.220005786618387 |
94 | 100.7 | 100.469990207574 | 0.230009792426358 |
95 | 100.88 | 100.699989762297 | 0.180010237703215 |
96 | 100.95 | 100.87999198777 | 0.0700080122301472 |
97 | 100.92 | 100.949996883953 | -0.0299968839533022 |
98 | 101.12 | 100.920001335157 | 0.199998664842951 |
99 | 101.19 | 101.119991098088 | 0.0700089019122032 |
100 | 101.28 | 101.189996883914 | 0.0900031160862937 |
101 | 101.28 | 101.279995993974 | 4.0060259323127e-06 |
102 | 101.3 | 101.279999999822 | 0.0200000001782996 |
103 | 101.3 | 101.299999109803 | 8.90197171088403e-07 |
104 | 101.36 | 101.29999999996 | 0.0600000000396363 |
105 | 101.45 | 101.359997329409 | 0.0900026705915025 |
106 | 101.58 | 101.449995993994 | 0.130004006006104 |
107 | 101.73 | 101.57999421354 | 0.150005786459872 |
108 | 101.84 | 101.729993323264 | 0.110006676736276 |
109 | 102.01 | 101.839995103618 | 0.17000489638157 |
110 | 102.14 | 102.009992433106 | 0.130007566893823 |
111 | 102.16 | 102.139994213382 | 0.0200057866183556 |
112 | 102.32 | 102.159999109545 | 0.160000890454711 |
113 | 102.41 | 102.319992878383 | 0.0900071216169493 |
114 | 102.4 | 102.409995993796 | -0.00999599379576921 |
115 | 102.43 | 102.40000044492 | 0.0299995550797405 |
116 | 102.42 | 102.429998664724 | -0.00999866472406552 |
117 | 102.3 | 102.420000445039 | -0.120000445039153 |
118 | 102.65 | 102.300005341203 | 0.349994658797215 |
119 | 102.72 | 102.649984421787 | 0.0700155782126046 |
120 | 102.86 | 102.719996883617 | 0.140003116383468 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
121 | 102.859993768481 | 102.219511878173 | 103.500475658789 |
122 | 102.859993768481 | 101.954235750558 | 103.765751786404 |
123 | 102.859993768481 | 101.750679510819 | 103.969308026143 |
124 | 102.859993768481 | 101.579072749264 | 104.140914787698 |
125 | 102.859993768481 | 101.427883719396 | 104.292103817566 |
126 | 102.859993768481 | 101.291198138735 | 104.428789398227 |
127 | 102.859993768481 | 101.165502616799 | 104.554484920164 |
128 | 102.859993768481 | 101.048507969931 | 104.671479567032 |
129 | 102.859993768481 | 100.938624118057 | 104.781363418905 |
130 | 102.859993768481 | 100.834693329339 | 104.885294207623 |
131 | 102.859993768481 | 100.735841607263 | 104.9841459297 |
132 | 102.859993768481 | 100.641389941921 | 105.078597595042 |