Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.882411060037558 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 103.66 | 102.8 | 0.859999999999999 |
3 | 103.55 | 103.558873511632 | -0.008873511632288 |
4 | 103.87 | 103.551043426827 | 0.318956573173423 |
5 | 104.03 | 103.832494234666 | 0.197505765333517 |
6 | 104.02 | 104.006775506418 | 0.0132244935820296 |
7 | 104.02 | 104.018444945818 | 0.00155505418184987 |
8 | 102.97 | 104.019817142827 | -1.04981714282717 |
9 | 103.18 | 103.093446884979 | 0.0865531150205641 |
10 | 103.53 | 103.169822310954 | 0.360177689045699 |
11 | 103.78 | 103.487647087347 | 0.292352912653001 |
12 | 103.85 | 103.745622530906 | 0.104377469093791 |
13 | 103.85 | 103.837726364053 | 0.0122736359466984 |
14 | 104.78 | 103.84855675616 | 0.931443243840462 |
15 | 104.76 | 104.670472576322 | 0.0895274236783763 |
16 | 104.84 | 104.749472565152 | 0.0905274348478997 |
17 | 104.85 | 104.829354974899 | 0.0206450251012882 |
18 | 104.83 | 104.847572373383 | -0.0175723733828335 |
19 | 104.83 | 104.832066316759 | -0.00206631675871449 |
20 | 103.71 | 104.830242975997 | -1.12024297599729 |
21 | 103.84 | 103.841728184048 | -0.00172818404789155 |
22 | 104.37 | 103.84020321533 | 0.529796784669756 |
23 | 104.44 | 104.307701757695 | 0.132298242304827 |
24 | 104.4 | 104.424443189928 | -0.0244431899284621 |
25 | 99.54 | 104.402874248793 | -4.86287424879299 |
26 | 100.42 | 100.111820228086 | 0.308179771913771 |
27 | 100.34 | 100.383761467303 | -0.0437614673027866 |
28 | 100.36 | 100.345145864551 | 0.0148541354486582 |
29 | 100.37 | 100.358253317959 | 0.011746682041462 |
30 | 100.42 | 100.368618720111 | 0.0513812798893269 |
31 | 100.41 | 100.413958129764 | -0.00395812976390175 |
32 | 99.13 | 100.410465432283 | -1.28046543228318 |
33 | 99.42 | 99.2805685728407 | 0.139431427159266 |
34 | 99.76 | 99.4036044062829 | 0.35639559371711 |
35 | 99.92 | 99.7180918199275 | 0.201908180072465 |
36 | 99.92 | 99.8962578311355 | 0.023742168864473 |
37 | 100.47 | 99.9172081835308 | 0.552791816469181 |
38 | 100.44 | 100.404997796281 | 0.035002203718534 |
39 | 100.47 | 100.435884127968 | 0.0341158720316059 |
40 | 100.61 | 100.465988350772 | 0.144011649228091 |
41 | 100.73 | 100.593065822825 | 0.136934177174979 |
42 | 100.64 | 100.713898055261 | -0.0738980552613668 |
43 | 99.99 | 100.648689593983 | -0.658689593983482 |
44 | 99.74 | 100.067454611121 | -0.327454611120814 |
45 | 99.49 | 99.7785050406075 | -0.288505040607504 |
46 | 99.41 | 99.5239250018988 | -0.113925001898849 |
47 | 99.49 | 99.4233963202085 | 0.0666036797914842 |
48 | 99.53 | 99.4821681438957 | 0.0478318561042954 |
49 | 99.91 | 99.5243755027443 | 0.385624497255733 |
50 | 99.84 | 99.8646548241442 | -0.0246548241441502 |
51 | 99.67 | 99.8428991346361 | -0.172899134636069 |
52 | 99.39 | 99.6903310259623 | -0.300331025962279 |
53 | 99.38 | 99.4253156069807 | -0.0453156069807363 |
54 | 99.29 | 99.3853286141886 | -0.0953286141886167 |
55 | 97.91 | 99.3012095906905 | -1.39120959069054 |
56 | 97.62 | 98.0735908610349 | -0.453590861034868 |
57 | 97.67 | 97.6733372685258 | -0.00333726852575467 |
58 | 97.64 | 97.6703924258683 | -0.0303924258683139 |
59 | 97.63 | 97.6435738131407 | -0.0135738131407521 |
60 | 97.66 | 97.6315961302985 | 0.0284038697015347 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 97.656660019071 | 96.176598461686 | 99.1367215764559 |
62 | 97.656660019071 | 95.6827609652624 | 99.6305590728795 |
63 | 97.656660019071 | 95.2898113260608 | 100.023508712081 |
64 | 97.656660019071 | 94.9533901478628 | 100.359929890279 |
65 | 97.656660019071 | 94.6544336356083 | 100.658886402534 |
66 | 97.656660019071 | 94.3826626888129 | 100.930657349329 |
67 | 97.656660019071 | 94.131783598611 | 101.181536439531 |
68 | 97.656660019071 | 93.8976110648151 | 101.415708973327 |
69 | 97.656660019071 | 93.6771946904785 | 101.636125347663 |
70 | 97.656660019071 | 93.4683620876378 | 101.844957950504 |
71 | 97.656660019071 | 93.2694587673132 | 102.043861270829 |
72 | 97.656660019071 | 93.079190184719 | 102.234129853423 |