Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.894316694477335 |
beta | 0.0554592401396707 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
4 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
5 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
6 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
7 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
8 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
9 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
10 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
11 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
12 | 100 | 100 | 0 |
13 | 100.4 | 100 | 0.400000000000006 |
14 | 100.4 | 100.377565927519 | 0.0224340724810901 |
15 | 100.4 | 100.418581030708 | -0.0185810307077645 |
16 | 100.4 | 100.421994058118 | -0.021994058118068 |
17 | 100.4 | 100.421263894108 | -0.021263894107804 |
18 | 100.4 | 100.420132078698 | -0.0201320786981398 |
19 | 100.4 | 100.419013951362 | -0.0190139513623109 |
20 | 100.4 | 100.417952727646 | -0.0179527276459766 |
21 | 100.4 | 100.416950152398 | -0.0169501523980671 |
22 | 100.4 | 100.416003501166 | -0.0160035011659687 |
23 | 101.4 | 100.415109712294 | 0.984890287705809 |
24 | 101.4 | 101.35818065914 | 0.041819340859746 |
25 | 102 | 101.459921675012 | 0.540078324987732 |
26 | 102 | 102.034050890468 | -0.0340508904684924 |
27 | 102.6 | 102.093037903456 | 0.506962096543603 |
28 | 102.6 | 102.661006231748 | -0.0610062317481237 |
29 | 102.6 | 102.718005207448 | -0.118005207447652 |
30 | 102.6 | 102.718176210662 | -0.118176210661602 |
31 | 102.6 | 102.712332964458 | -0.112332964458446 |
32 | 102.6 | 102.706143926548 | -0.106143926548285 |
33 | 102.3 | 102.700225308899 | -0.400225308899181 |
34 | 102.4 | 102.411454376852 | -0.0114543768519155 |
35 | 102.4 | 102.469799664055 | -0.0697996640549263 |
36 | 102.4 | 102.472503854453 | -0.0725038544529184 |
37 | 102.9 | 102.469193587046 | 0.430806412953899 |
38 | 102.9 | 102.937369284311 | -0.0373692843105857 |
39 | 102.9 | 102.984994193154 | -0.0849941931538893 |
40 | 104.9 | 102.985811798387 | 1.91418820161286 |
41 | 104.9 | 104.869471738961 | 0.0305282610391657 |
42 | 105.5 | 105.070057292448 | 0.429942707552414 |
43 | 105.5 | 105.649170205326 | -0.149170205326186 |
44 | 105.5 | 105.702974209841 | -0.202974209841443 |
45 | 105.5 | 105.698593254796 | -0.198593254795526 |
46 | 105.5 | 105.688280408044 | -0.188280408044477 |
47 | 105.5 | 105.677852157225 | -0.177852157225288 |
48 | 105.5 | 105.667928931803 | -0.16792893180326 |
49 | 105.5 | 105.658551252503 | -0.158551252502718 |
50 | 106.8 | 105.649696343623 | 1.15030365637661 |
51 | 106.8 | 106.868425134158 | -0.0684251341581046 |
52 | 106.8 | 106.993830662967 | -0.19383066296686 |
53 | 106.9 | 106.997470296463 | -0.0974702964633423 |
54 | 107.5 | 107.082452270528 | 0.417547729471607 |
55 | 107.6 | 107.64873304734 | -0.0487330473396668 |
56 | 107.6 | 107.795594073394 | -0.195594073394318 |
57 | 107.6 | 107.801413732912 | -0.201413732911774 |
58 | 107.8 | 107.792039030402 | 0.007960969598102 |
59 | 107.8 | 107.970306468908 | -0.170306468907654 |
60 | 107.8 | 107.980699479659 | -0.180699479658642 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 107.972835492132 | 107.252233249902 | 108.693437734363 |
62 | 108.126574065948 | 107.135654225603 | 109.117493906294 |
63 | 108.280312639764 | 107.057825610606 | 109.502799668923 |
64 | 108.43405121358 | 106.998962512349 | 109.869139914811 |
65 | 108.587789787396 | 106.950874386011 | 110.224705188782 |
66 | 108.741528361212 | 106.909298392399 | 110.573758330025 |
67 | 108.895266935028 | 106.871716038248 | 110.918817831808 |
68 | 109.049005508844 | 106.836513357333 | 111.261497660354 |
69 | 109.20274408266 | 106.802595900982 | 111.602892264338 |
70 | 109.356482656476 | 106.769190187138 | 111.943775125813 |
71 | 109.510221230292 | 106.735732201009 | 112.284710259575 |
72 | 109.663959804108 | 106.701800588492 | 112.626119019723 |