Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999931067825166 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 102.91 | 102.59 | 0.319999999999993 |
3 | 101.94 | 102.909977941704 | -0.969977941704059 |
4 | 101.8 | 101.940066862689 | -0.140066862689068 |
5 | 102.25 | 101.800009655113 | 0.44999034488653 |
6 | 102.6 | 102.249968981187 | 0.350031018813127 |
7 | 102.49 | 102.599975871601 | -0.109975871600611 |
8 | 102.13 | 102.490007580876 | -0.360007580876015 |
9 | 100.76 | 102.130024816106 | -1.3700248161055 |
10 | 100.86 | 100.76009443879 | 0.0999055612098516 |
11 | 101.12 | 100.859993113292 | 0.260006886707629 |
12 | 100.74 | 101.11998207716 | -0.379982077159838 |
13 | 99.99 | 100.740026192991 | -0.750026192990987 |
14 | 99.39 | 99.9900517009367 | -0.60005170093666 |
15 | 99.52 | 99.3900413628688 | 0.129958637131239 |
16 | 99.21 | 99.5199910416685 | -0.309991041668511 |
17 | 99.38 | 99.2100213683567 | 0.169978631643318 |
18 | 99.37 | 99.3799882830032 | -0.00998828300323851 |
19 | 99.38 | 99.3700006885141 | 0.00999931148592736 |
20 | 99.26 | 99.3799993107257 | -0.119999310725703 |
21 | 99.36 | 99.2600082718135 | 0.0999917281865237 |
22 | 99.2 | 99.3599931073527 | -0.159993107352705 |
23 | 98.53 | 99.2000110286728 | -0.670011028672846 |
24 | 98.65 | 98.5300461853174 | 0.119953814682631 |
25 | 99.15 | 98.6499917313227 | 0.50000826867732 |
26 | 100.17 | 99.1499655333426 | 1.02003446665739 |
27 | 99.98 | 100.169929686806 | -0.189929686805797 |
28 | 100.07 | 99.9800130922664 | 0.0899869077336035 |
29 | 99.94 | 100.069993797007 | -0.129993797006748 |
30 | 100.05 | 99.9400089607551 | 0.109991039244861 |
31 | 99.13 | 100.049992418078 | -0.919992418078451 |
32 | 98.74 | 99.1300634170782 | -0.39006341707821 |
33 | 98.64 | 98.7400268879197 | -0.100026887919668 |
34 | 98.44 | 98.6400068950709 | -0.200006895070928 |
35 | 98.81 | 98.4400137869103 | 0.369986213089746 |
36 | 98.88 | 98.8099744960457 | 0.0700255039543265 |
37 | 99.63 | 98.8799951729897 | 0.750004827010287 |
38 | 100.08 | 99.6299483005361 | 0.450051699463856 |
39 | 100.07 | 100.079968976958 | -0.00996897695756616 |
40 | 100.55 | 100.070000687183 | 0.479999312816744 |
41 | 99.98 | 100.549966912603 | -0.569966912603434 |
42 | 99.89 | 99.9800392890589 | -0.090039289058879 |
43 | 99.86 | 99.890006206604 | -0.0300062066040283 |
44 | 99.61 | 99.8600020683931 | -0.250002068393087 |
45 | 100.12 | 99.6100172331863 | 0.509982766813721 |
46 | 100.24 | 100.119964845779 | 0.120035154221242 |
47 | 100.1 | 100.239991725716 | -0.13999172571576 |
48 | 99.86 | 100.100009649934 | -0.240009649934109 |
49 | 97.99 | 99.8600165443872 | -1.87001654438716 |
50 | 97.57 | 97.9901289043074 | -0.420128904307376 |
51 | 98.28 | 97.5700289603991 | 0.70997103960093 |
52 | 97.97 | 98.2799510601522 | -0.309951060152173 |
53 | 97.99 | 97.9700213656007 | 0.0199786343993225 |
54 | 97.84 | 97.9899986228293 | -0.149998622829273 |
55 | 97.33 | 97.8400103397313 | -0.510010339731295 |
56 | 96.7 | 97.3300351561219 | -0.630035156121892 |
57 | 96.79 | 96.7000434296935 | 0.0899565703064695 |
58 | 96.76 | 96.789993799098 | -0.0299937990979657 |
59 | 96.23 | 96.7600020675378 | -0.530002067537808 |
60 | 96.29 | 96.2300365341952 | 0.0599634658048132 |
61 | 96.46 | 96.2899958665879 | 0.170004133412093 |
62 | 97.23 | 96.4599882812453 | 0.77001171875466 |
63 | 97.59 | 97.2299469214176 | 0.360053078582425 |
64 | 97.13 | 97.5899751807582 | -0.459975180758249 |
65 | 97.37 | 97.1300317070896 | 0.239968292910433 |
66 | 96.12 | 97.3699834584637 | -1.24998345846367 |
67 | 96.96 | 96.1200861640783 | 0.839913835921692 |
68 | 96.7 | 96.9599421029126 | -0.259942102912603 |
69 | 97 | 96.7000179183745 | 0.299982081625515 |
70 | 97.15 | 96.9999793215827 | 0.150020678417306 |
71 | 96.51 | 97.1499896587484 | -0.639989658748362 |
72 | 96.68 | 96.5100441158791 | 0.169955884120952 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
73 | 96.6799882845713 | 95.6815271927615 | 97.6784493763811 |
74 | 96.6799882845713 | 95.2679997335915 | 98.0919768355511 |
75 | 96.6799882845713 | 94.9506824167914 | 98.4092941523512 |
76 | 96.6799882845713 | 94.6831693392039 | 98.6768072299386 |
77 | 96.6799882845713 | 94.447484529408 | 98.9124920397345 |
78 | 96.6799882845713 | 94.2344085714853 | 99.1255679976573 |
79 | 96.6799882845713 | 94.0384646240114 | 99.3215119451312 |
80 | 96.6799882845713 | 93.8560841846525 | 99.50389238449 |
81 | 96.6799882845713 | 93.6847885446912 | 99.6751880244514 |
82 | 96.6799882845713 | 93.5227729612178 | 99.8372036079247 |
83 | 96.6799882845713 | 93.3686749931025 | 99.9913015760401 |
84 | 96.6799882845713 | 93.2214361553562 | 100.138540413786 |