Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
beta | FALSE |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
2 | 101.29 | 102.54 | -1.25 |
3 | 101.49 | 101.290082633702 | 0.199917366298294 |
4 | 101.71 | 101.48998678407 | 0.220013215929612 |
5 | 101.98 | 101.709985455595 | 0.270014544405171 |
6 | 102.11 | 101.979982150159 | 0.130017849841053 |
7 | 102.11 | 102.109991404915 | 8.59508497796924e-06 |
8 | 103.13 | 102.109999999432 | 1.0200000005682 |
9 | 103.43 | 103.129932570899 | 0.300067429100622 |
10 | 103.8 | 103.429980163454 | 0.370019836545936 |
11 | 103.99 | 103.799975539113 | 0.190024460887031 |
12 | 104.03 | 103.98998743806 | 0.0400125619397045 |
13 | 104.03 | 104.029997354891 | 2.645108892807e-06 |
14 | 102.58 | 104.029999999825 | -1.44999999982514 |
15 | 102.65 | 102.580095855094 | 0.0699041449060616 |
16 | 102.81 | 102.649995378849 | 0.160004621150605 |
17 | 102.98 | 102.809989422581 | 0.170010577419305 |
18 | 103.12 | 102.979988761117 | 0.140011238882678 |
19 | 103.12 | 103.119990744282 | 9.25571755772125e-06 |
20 | 104.33 | 103.119999999388 | 1.21000000061186 |
21 | 104.41 | 104.329920010577 | 0.0800799894232682 |
22 | 104.66 | 104.409994706155 | 0.250005293844765 |
23 | 104.81 | 104.65998347291 | 0.150016527090315 |
24 | 104.9 | 104.809990082863 | 0.0900099171367543 |
25 | 100.15 | 104.899994049718 | -4.74999404971788 |
26 | 98.74 | 100.150314007673 | -1.41031400767308 |
27 | 98.74 | 98.7400932315736 | -9.32315736008604e-05 |
28 | 98.96 | 98.7400000061633 | 0.219999993836737 |
29 | 99.34 | 98.9599854564689 | 0.380014543531104 |
30 | 99.4 | 99.3399748783933 | 0.060025121606742 |
31 | 99.5 | 99.3999960319216 | 0.100003968078383 |
32 | 100.5 | 99.4999933890415 | 1.00000661095847 |
33 | 100.77 | 100.499933892602 | 0.270066107398378 |
34 | 101.08 | 100.76998214675 | 0.310017853249718 |
35 | 101.39 | 101.079979505662 | 0.310020494338247 |
36 | 101.43 | 101.389979505487 | 0.0400204945128451 |
37 | 101.43 | 101.429997354367 | 2.64563327334599e-06 |
38 | 101.29 | 101.429999999825 | -0.139999999825108 |
39 | 101.33 | 101.290009254975 | 0.0399907450254062 |
40 | 101.15 | 101.329997356333 | -0.179997356333359 |
41 | 101.25 | 101.150011899078 | 0.0999881009217205 |
42 | 101.13 | 101.24999339009 | -0.119993390090485 |
43 | 101.07 | 101.130007932398 | -0.0600079323984062 |
44 | 101.33 | 101.070003966942 | 0.259996033057945 |
45 | 101.61 | 101.329982812452 | 0.280017187547713 |
46 | 101.29 | 101.609981488915 | -0.319981488914593 |
47 | 101.39 | 101.290021153004 | 0.0999788469960663 |
48 | 101.46 | 101.389993390702 | 0.0700066092977636 |
49 | 101.81 | 101.459995372076 | 0.350004627924221 |
50 | 101.78 | 101.809976862258 | -0.029976862257584 |
51 | 101.93 | 101.780001981679 | 0.149998018320744 |
52 | 102.01 | 101.929990084087 | 0.0800099159131946 |
53 | 102.03 | 102.009994710788 | 0.0200052892124063 |
54 | 102.14 | 102.029998677511 | 0.11000132248887 |
55 | 101.81 | 102.139992728147 | -0.32999272814682 |
56 | 101.52 | 101.810021814817 | -0.290021814816527 |
57 | 101.38 | 101.520019172461 | -0.14001917246091 |
58 | 101.5 | 101.380009256242 | 0.119990743757981 |
59 | 101.65 | 101.499992067777 | 0.15000793222346 |
60 | 101.64 | 101.649990083431 | -0.00999008343141838 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 101.640000660414 | 100.149088948393 | 103.130912372435 |
62 | 101.640000660414 | 99.5316027880131 | 103.748398532815 |
63 | 101.640000660414 | 99.057779631213 | 104.222221689615 |
64 | 101.640000660414 | 98.6583250746148 | 104.621676246213 |
65 | 101.640000660414 | 98.3063970315681 | 104.97360428926 |
66 | 101.640000660414 | 97.9882288973436 | 105.291772423484 |
67 | 101.640000660414 | 97.6956425548585 | 105.58435876597 |
68 | 101.640000660414 | 97.4233094551958 | 105.856691865632 |
69 | 101.640000660414 | 97.1675283491002 | 106.112472971728 |
70 | 101.640000660414 | 96.9256043649408 | 106.354396955887 |
71 | 101.640000660414 | 96.6955030837056 | 106.584498237123 |
72 | 101.640000660414 | 96.4756439588123 | 106.804357362016 |