Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
Parameter | Value |
alpha | 0.954366946340557 |
beta | 0.0855529102548362 |
gamma | FALSE |
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
3 | 99.88 | 99.82 | 0.0600000000000023 |
4 | 99.74 | 99.9021609489631 | -0.162160948963063 |
5 | 100.15 | 99.7590585732741 | 0.390941426725888 |
6 | 100.27 | 100.1757387485 | 0.0942612514996881 |
7 | 100.26 | 100.316973495499 | -0.0569734954985108 |
8 | 100.36 | 100.309222977313 | 0.0507770226874271 |
9 | 100.37 | 100.408451878644 | -0.0384518786440253 |
10 | 100.54 | 100.419384113457 | 0.120615886543064 |
11 | 99.8 | 100.591973516398 | -0.791973516398045 |
12 | 99.82 | 99.828954015137 | -0.00895401513697891 |
13 | 99.82 | 99.8124913590042 | 0.00750864099576631 |
14 | 99.82 | 99.8123531897839 | 0.00764681021608737 |
15 | 99.67 | 99.8129712381115 | -0.142971238111485 |
16 | 99.78 | 99.6581709596 | 0.121829040399987 |
17 | 99.44 | 99.7660345177282 | -0.326034517728232 |
18 | 99.61 | 99.4198515496493 | 0.190148450350691 |
19 | 99.71 | 99.5818219506172 | 0.128178049382797 |
20 | 99.71 | 99.6951154421036 | 0.0148845578963517 |
21 | 99.77 | 99.7015006774083 | 0.0684993225917054 |
22 | 99.77 | 99.7646469642395 | 0.0053530357604501 |
23 | 99.89 | 99.7679655914543 | 0.12203440854573 |
24 | 99.96 | 99.8926050356325 | 0.0673949643675229 |
25 | 100.02 | 99.9706011229853 | 0.049398877014653 |
26 | 100 | 100.035455701878 | -0.0354557018783908 |
27 | 100.04 | 100.016432957447 | 0.0235670425528838 |
28 | 99.99 | 100.05566379177 | -0.0656637917702199 |
29 | 99.77 | 100.004374292842 | -0.234374292842006 |
30 | 99.77 | 99.7729366720906 | -0.00293667209058412 |
31 | 99.93 | 99.7621356907671 | 0.167864309232883 |
32 | 99.9 | 99.9280474515349 | -0.0280474515349027 |
33 | 100.01 | 99.9046974607105 | 0.105302539289553 |
34 | 100.08 | 100.017210126734 | 0.062789873265686 |
35 | 100.21 | 100.094276831686 | 0.115723168314418 |
36 | 100.28 | 100.231309989684 | 0.0486900103155676 |
37 | 100.48 | 100.308344401689 | 0.171655598311176 |
38 | 100.72 | 100.516748591995 | 0.203251408004874 |
39 | 100.74 | 100.771902026447 | -0.0319020264466161 |
40 | 100.88 | 100.800028031338 | 0.0799719686616811 |
41 | 101.03 | 100.941452500166 | 0.0885474998338083 |
42 | 101.47 | 101.098290975769 | 0.371709024230825 |
43 | 101.46 | 101.555719072422 | -0.0957190724217014 |
44 | 101.46 | 101.559233889765 | -0.0992338897652161 |
45 | 101.45 | 101.551291946677 | -0.101291946677335 |
46 | 101.74 | 101.533115489142 | 0.206884510858117 |
47 | 102.41 | 101.825944342791 | 0.584055657209262 |
48 | 102.54 | 102.52642035589 | 0.0135796441103793 |
49 | 102.67 | 102.683561681 | -0.0135616809995014 |
50 | 102.87 | 102.81369292662 | 0.056307073380367 |
51 | 102.9 | 103.0151020109 | -0.115102010900117 |
52 | 102.88 | 103.043525981749 | -0.163525981749402 |
53 | 102.82 | 103.012384003831 | -0.192384003831435 |
54 | 102.94 | 102.937992947038 | 0.00200705296160208 |
55 | 102.97 | 103.049286163119 | -0.0792861631186099 |
56 | 103.01 | 103.076522195208 | -0.0665221952078383 |
57 | 103.11 | 103.110508274326 | -0.000508274325895286 |
58 | 103.21 | 103.207454357508 | 0.00254564249219413 |
59 | 104.66 | 103.30752284679 | 1.35247715321006 |
60 | 104.79 | 104.806349580594 | -0.0163495805935696 |
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
61 | 104.997478399612 | 104.501463938659 | 105.493492860565 |
62 | 105.204210717936 | 104.489996608695 | 105.918424827176 |
63 | 105.410943036259 | 104.506821036373 | 106.315065036145 |
64 | 105.617675354583 | 104.535402247991 | 106.699948461174 |
65 | 105.824407672906 | 104.569410623183 | 107.079404722629 |
66 | 106.031139991229 | 104.605719181565 | 107.456560800894 |
67 | 106.237872309553 | 104.642561653931 | 107.833182965175 |
68 | 106.444604627876 | 104.678854717492 | 108.210354538261 |
69 | 106.6513369462 | 104.713896676121 | 108.588777216279 |
70 | 106.858069264523 | 104.747215742484 | 108.968922786563 |
71 | 107.064801582847 | 104.778486543002 | 109.351116622692 |
72 | 107.27153390117 | 104.807480989577 | 109.735586812764 |