| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.338127867499261 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.541013145326972 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 477 | 501.177610177224 | -24.1776101772243 |
| 14 | 511 | 528.656498777284 | -17.6564987772839 |
| 15 | 538 | 545.285716323373 | -7.28571632337264 |
| 16 | 444 | 443.868626164512 | 0.131373835488148 |
| 17 | 559 | 554.24482175435 | 4.75517824565009 |
| 18 | 433 | 423.69193147716 | 9.30806852283951 |
| 19 | 459 | 481.577913194212 | -22.5779131942119 |
| 20 | 492 | 472.341852567033 | 19.6581474329675 |
| 21 | 526 | 434.200769172523 | 91.7992308274767 |
| 22 | 523 | 553.988423714133 | -30.9884237141328 |
| 23 | 636 | 577.946861476075 | 58.0531385239245 |
| 24 | 519 | 452.971712624308 | 66.0282873756918 |
| 25 | 671 | 532.046654807384 | 138.953345192616 |
| 26 | 599 | 624.616674080876 | -25.6166740808757 |
| 27 | 579 | 647.595583531225 | -68.5955835312245 |
| 28 | 593 | 513.27418210064 | 79.7258178993601 |
| 29 | 684 | 676.807650352544 | 7.19234964745579 |
| 30 | 599 | 520.431238393679 | 78.5687616063212 |
| 31 | 721 | 602.246956300105 | 118.753043699895 |
| 32 | 516 | 661.3861840054 | -145.3861840054 |
| 33 | 556 | 585.898204318138 | -29.8982043181381 |
| 34 | 700 | 627.508506048952 | 72.4914939510476 |
| 35 | 579 | 732.734302763199 | -153.734302763199 |
| 36 | 552 | 523.594252281826 | 28.4057477181738 |
| 37 | 734 | 617.526445448084 | 116.473554551916 |
| 38 | 760 | 642.892246506695 | 117.107753493305 |
| 39 | 714 | 699.907443523876 | 14.0925564761239 |
| 40 | 698 | 635.053048337568 | 62.946951662432 |
| 41 | 800 | 784.176735261925 | 15.8232647380752 |
| 42 | 712 | 633.826898602435 | 78.1731013975647 |
| 43 | 782 | 737.345527989571 | 44.6544720104292 |
| 44 | 610 | 664.914551328427 | -54.9145513284273 |
| 45 | 596 | 663.647360858557 | -67.647360858557 |
| 46 | 748 | 740.072000562796 | 7.92799943720411 |
| 47 | 581 | 737.956135823768 | -156.956135823768 |
| 48 | 641 | 584.160820856909 | 56.8391791430913 |
| 49 | 598 | 729.416701154167 | -131.416701154167 |
| 50 | 609 | 669.047856660317 | -60.0478566603172 |
| 51 | 526 | 631.137594219328 | -105.137594219328 |
| 52 | 716 | 551.031448294088 | 164.968551705912 |
| 53 | 552 | 705.810080450238 | -153.810080450238 |
| 54 | 464 | 543.00805635713 | -79.0080563571299 |
| 55 | 631 | 564.545480152918 | 66.4545198470821 |
| 56 | 465 | 492.220808846623 | -27.2208088466234 |
| 57 | 539 | 491.911288707262 | 47.0887112927384 |
| 58 | 537 | 611.662818652861 | -74.6628186528606 |
| 59 | 488 | 532.516516485834 | -44.5165164858341 |
| 60 | 520 | 496.826385023941 | 23.1736149760588 |
| 61 | 477 | 549.376999230058 | -72.3769992300585 |
| 62 | 480 | 532.033274829351 | -52.0332748293509 |
| 63 | 645 | 484.688608706947 | 160.311391293053 |
| 64 | 455 | 583.986282206008 | -128.986282206008 |
| 65 | 379 | 524.272543711351 | -145.272543711351 |
| 66 | 477 | 407.084996188675 | 69.9150038113245 |
| 67 | 424 | 518.32292049811 | -94.3229204981099 |
| 68 | 316 | 383.856327446591 | -67.856327446591 |
| 69 | 381 | 387.306079717125 | -6.30607971712539 |
| 70 | 376 | 428.198250779549 | -52.1982507795488 |
| 71 | 389 | 378.267339167306 | 10.7326608326944 |
| 72 | 472 | 384.249846573556 | 87.7501534264442 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 421.178591138636 | 308.573465781382 | 533.783716495889 |
| 74 | 432.607341247492 | 306.694678189797 | 558.520004305188 |
| 75 | 467.77829339631 | 326.601570260293 | 608.955016532328 |
| 76 | 418.693828873856 | 274.007858315125 | 563.379799432587 |
| 77 | 395.375968117113 | 244.487932116543 | 546.264004117684 |
| 78 | 402.4113068335 | 240.21127407772 | 564.61133958928 |
| 79 | 425.723900001782 | 248.54324212699 | 602.904557876574 |
| 80 | 336.653347122074 | 174.376100398867 | 498.930593845281 |
| 81 | 385.080499781048 | 199.09766577353 | 571.063333788565 |
| 82 | 411.021074718838 | 207.992994639056 | 614.04915479862 |
| 83 | 400.818821069998 | 193.821598396937 | 607.816043743058 |
| 84 | 429.631709400529 | 212.520238845555 | 646.743179955504 |
