| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.00527852028951625 |
| beta | 0.492309095625266 |
| gamma | 0.108572443357086 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 13 | 2933 | 2918.18509615385 | 14.8149038461534 |
| 14 | 2889 | 2875.283293544 | 13.7167064559953 |
| 15 | 2938 | 2928.99467251538 | 9.00532748461728 |
| 16 | 2497 | 2505.53791752689 | -8.53791752689267 |
| 17 | 1870 | 1892.75803965526 | -22.7580396552603 |
| 18 | 1726 | 1737.34396009234 | -11.3439600923352 |
| 19 | 1607 | 1716.83565084436 | -109.835650844363 |
| 20 | 1545 | 1506.27202530607 | 38.727974693928 |
| 21 | 1396 | 1551.59323685567 | -155.59323685567 |
| 22 | 1787 | 2017.90105214085 | -230.901052140847 |
| 23 | 2076 | 2145.96131944723 | -69.9613194472345 |
| 24 | 2837 | 2457.35597113394 | 379.644028866055 |
| 25 | 2787 | 2880.46044073373 | -93.4604407337274 |
| 26 | 3891 | 2836.18947542937 | 1054.81052457063 |
| 27 | 3179 | 2896.91389147735 | 282.086108522645 |
| 28 | 2011 | 2475.74001315583 | -464.740013155829 |
| 29 | 1636 | 1860.56685681569 | -224.56685681569 |
| 30 | 1580 | 1706.3463625518 | -126.346362551796 |
| 31 | 1489 | 1675.32124465031 | -186.321244650307 |
| 32 | 1300 | 1480.92717336612 | -180.927173366121 |
| 33 | 1356 | 1504.0600693261 | -148.060069326104 |
| 34 | 1653 | 1962.25173175058 | -309.251731750579 |
| 35 | 2013 | 2107.0534791269 | -94.053479126901 |
| 36 | 2823 | 2466.58910456874 | 356.410895431258 |
| 37 | 3102 | 2838.12665447289 | 263.873345527108 |
| 38 | 2294 | 2920.33366927885 | -626.33366927885 |
| 39 | 2385 | 2884.94095368707 | -499.940953687069 |
| 40 | 2444 | 2373.16072526432 | 70.8392747356766 |
| 41 | 1748 | 1782.3232931479 | -34.3232931479042 |
| 42 | 1554 | 1635.77924646514 | -81.7792464651397 |
| 43 | 1498 | 1594.69243852325 | -96.6924385232455 |
| 44 | 1361 | 1397.76725527598 | -36.76725527598 |
| 45 | 1346 | 1421.99857542526 | -75.9985754252632 |
| 46 | 1564 | 1860.13713362889 | -296.137133628885 |
| 47 | 1640 | 2025.25856780403 | -385.258567804028 |
| 48 | 2293 | 2428.1593646029 | -135.159364602903 |
| 49 | 2815 | 2782.08317824312 | 32.916821756879 |
| 50 | 3137 | 2761.30415642621 | 375.695843573789 |
| 51 | 2679 | 2741.82978505779 | -62.8297850577883 |
| 52 | 1969 | 2292.11543153957 | -323.115431539573 |
| 53 | 1870 | 1684.93194360872 | 185.068056391284 |
| 54 | 1633 | 1532.0818013889 | 100.918198611101 |
| 55 | 1529 | 1488.4845743689 | 40.5154256310973 |
| 56 | 1366 | 1297.24790669583 | 68.7520933041719 |
| 57 | 1357 | 1316.56584615842 | 40.4341538415831 |
| 58 | 1570 | 1730.61333708168 | -160.613337081683 |
| 59 | 1535 | 1886.24642043456 | -351.246420434563 |
| 60 | 2491 | 2315.84702670289 | 175.152973297107 |
| 61 | 3084 | 2689.8770715282 | 394.122928471803 |
| 62 | 2605 | 2709.27936902086 | -104.279369020859 |
| 63 | 2573 | 2639.91844244236 | -66.9184424423552 |
| 64 | 2143 | 2162.06868620961 | -19.0686862096086 |
| 65 | 1693 | 1612.16057022276 | 80.839429777239 |
| 66 | 1504 | 1450.18824368723 | 53.8117563127662 |
| 67 | 1461 | 1400.2126086871 | 60.7873913129031 |
| 68 | 1354 | 1212.5788725683 | 141.421127431697 |
| 69 | 1333 | 1229.85730461416 | 103.142695385844 |
| 70 | 1492 | 1623.32099204227 | -131.320992042268 |
| 71 | 1781 | 1759.39475393793 | 21.6052460620701 |
| 72 | 1915 | 2249.65747500109 | -334.657475001085 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 2645.16348198456 | 2147.20785194564 | 3143.11911202347 |
| 74 | 2608.15247676059 | 2110.18139788162 | 3106.12355563957 |
| 75 | 2543.14213650641 | 2045.14373555805 | 3041.14053745477 |
| 76 | 2070.75244140209 | 1572.71148495348 | 2568.7933978507 |
| 77 | 1531.72363230797 | 1033.62152908981 | 2029.82573552614 |
| 78 | 1366.18418949325 | 867.998993899734 | 1864.36938508678 |
| 79 | 1316.3166006104 | 818.023017563286 | 1814.61018365752 |
| 80 | 1136.55115001774 | 638.120541413507 | 1634.98175862198 |
| 81 | 1148.06229898902 | 649.462691946833 | 1646.6619060312 |
| 82 | 1514.50484526417 | 1015.70094238838 | 2013.30874813997 |
| 83 | 1666.97420327936 | 1167.92739514489 | 2166.02101141382 |
| 84 | 2117.77707915073 | 1618.44545921371 | 2617.10869908775 |
