| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.127971652247376 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 2704 | 2069 | 635 |
| 4 | 2554 | 2302.26199917708 | 251.738000822916 |
| 5 | 2014 | 2184.47732707584 | -170.477327075844 |
| 6 | 1655 | 1622.66106185923 | 32.3389381407683 |
| 7 | 1721 | 1267.79952920503 | 453.200470794969 |
| 8 | 1524 | 1391.79634225195 | 132.203657748048 |
| 9 | 1596 | 1211.71466276712 | 384.285337232883 |
| 10 | 2074 | 1332.89229230725 | 741.107707692751 |
| 11 | 2199 | 1905.73307015396 | 293.266929846044 |
| 12 | 2512 | 2068.26292371587 | 443.737076284131 |
| 13 | 2933 | 2438.04869053137 | 494.951309468631 |
| 14 | 2889 | 2922.38842738607 | -33.3884273860722 |
| 15 | 2938 | 2874.11565516754 | 63.8843448324646 |
| 16 | 2497 | 2931.29104032849 | -434.291040328487 |
| 17 | 1870 | 2434.71409834142 | -564.714098341418 |
| 18 | 1726 | 1735.44670212928 | -9.44670212927986 |
| 19 | 1607 | 1590.23779204951 | 16.7622079504929 |
| 20 | 1545 | 1473.38287949625 | 71.6171205037542 |
| 21 | 1396 | 1420.54784073631 | -24.5478407363107 |
| 22 | 1787 | 1268.40641299818 | 518.59358700182 |
| 23 | 2076 | 1725.7716911717 | 350.228308828304 |
| 24 | 2837 | 2059.59098651626 | 777.409013483742 |
| 25 | 2787 | 2920.07730244378 | -133.077302443775 |
| 26 | 3891 | 2853.04718017342 | 1037.95281982658 |
| 27 | 3179 | 4089.87571748145 | -910.875717481452 |
| 28 | 2011 | 3261.30944692334 | -1250.30944692334 |
| 29 | 1636 | 1933.30528118005 | -297.305281180054 |
| 30 | 1580 | 1520.25863312557 | 59.7413668744282 |
| 31 | 1489 | 1471.90383455201 | 17.0961654479909 |
| 32 | 1300 | 1383.09165909148 | -83.0916590914831 |
| 33 | 1356 | 1183.45828218957 | 172.54171781043 |
| 34 | 1653 | 1261.53873089937 | 391.461269100629 |
| 35 | 2013 | 1608.63467629703 | 404.365323702966 |
| 36 | 2823 | 2020.38197488285 | 802.618025117153 |
| 37 | 3102 | 2933.09432968062 | 168.905670319385 |
| 38 | 2294 | 3233.70946738534 | -939.709467385338 |
| 39 | 2385 | 2305.45329421153 | 79.5467057884657 |
| 40 | 2444 | 2406.63301758212 | 37.3669824178801 |
| 41 | 1748 | 2470.41493206163 | -722.414932061635 |
| 42 | 1554 | 1681.96629959753 | -127.966299597531 |
| 43 | 1498 | 1471.59024080605 | 26.4097591939474 |
| 44 | 1361 | 1418.96994132556 | -57.9699413255573 |
| 45 | 1346 | 1274.55143215344 | 71.4485678465576 |
| 46 | 1564 | 1268.69482343148 | 295.305176568525 |
| 47 | 1640 | 1524.48551479415 | 115.514485205848 |
| 48 | 2293 | 1615.26809432445 | 677.73190567555 |
| 49 | 2815 | 2354.99856607451 | 460.001433925487 |
| 50 | 3137 | 2935.86570961012 | 201.13429038988 |
| 51 | 2679 | 3283.60519707492 | -604.605197074916 |
| 52 | 1969 | 2748.23287104789 | -779.232871047889 |
| 53 | 1870 | 1938.51315305442 | -68.5131530544238 |
| 54 | 1633 | 1830.74541165737 | -197.745411657372 |
| 55 | 1529 | 1568.43960460324 | -39.4396046032405 |
| 56 | 1366 | 1459.39245323818 | -93.3924532381805 |
| 57 | 1357 | 1284.44086668985 | 72.5591333101452 |
| 58 | 1570 | 1284.72637886519 | 285.273621134808 |
| 59 | 1535 | 1534.23331550441 | 0.766684495594973 |
| 60 | 2491 | 1499.33142938606 | 991.668570613941 |
| 61 | 3084 | 2582.23689484932 | 501.763105150681 |
| 62 | 2605 | 3239.44834845223 | -634.448348452225 |
| 63 | 2573 | 2679.25694503517 | -106.256945035175 |
| 64 | 2143 | 2633.65906821627 | -490.659068216265 |
| 65 | 1693 | 2140.86861656647 | -447.868616566472 |
| 66 | 1504 | 1633.55412971471 | -129.554129714714 |
| 67 | 1461 | 1427.97487367965 | 33.025126320349 |
| 68 | 1354 | 1389.20115366054 | -35.2011536605442 |
| 69 | 1333 | 1277.69640386559 | 55.3035961344094 |
| 70 | 1492 | 1263.77369643813 | 228.226303561867 |
| 71 | 1781 | 1451.98019359126 | 329.019806408744 |
| 72 | 1915 | 1783.08540183949 | 131.914598160505 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 73 | 1933.96673092164 | 1067.03644930817 | 2800.89701253512 |
| 74 | 1952.93346184329 | 646.10398129942 | 3259.76294238715 |
| 75 | 1971.90019276493 | 270.923411334847 | 3672.87697419501 |
| 76 | 1990.86692368657 | -90.6567368225672 | 4072.39058419571 |
| 77 | 2009.83365460822 | -449.978529878191 | 4469.64583909462 |
| 78 | 2028.80038552986 | -812.281131933757 | 4869.88190299348 |
| 79 | 2047.7671164515 | -1180.32238724569 | 5275.85662014869 |
| 80 | 2066.73384737315 | -1555.66113727602 | 5689.12883202232 |
| 81 | 2085.70057829479 | -1939.21077582367 | 6110.61193241325 |
| 82 | 2104.66730921643 | -2331.51080621407 | 6540.84542464694 |
| 83 | 2123.63404013808 | -2732.87257383805 | 6980.14065411421 |
| 84 | 2142.60077105972 | -3143.4628442086 | 7428.66438632804 |
