| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.999933893038648 |
| beta | FALSE |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 2 | 118 | 112 | 6 |
| 3 | 132 | 117.999603358232 | 14.0003966417681 |
| 4 | 129 | 131.99907447632 | -2.99907447632032 |
| 5 | 121 | 129.0001982597 | -8.00019825970048 |
| 6 | 135 | 121.000528868797 | 13.9994711312028 |
| 7 | 148 | 134.999074537503 | 13.000925462497 |
| 8 | 148 | 147.999140548323 | 0.000859451677087009 |
| 9 | 136 | 147.999999943184 | -11.9999999431843 |
| 10 | 119 | 136.000793283532 | -17.0007932835325 |
| 11 | 104 | 119.001123870785 | -15.0011238707846 |
| 12 | 118 | 104.000991678716 | 13.999008321284 |
| 13 | 115 | 117.999074568098 | -2.99907456809794 |
| 14 | 126 | 115.000198259707 | 10.9998017402934 |
| 15 | 141 | 125.999272836531 | 15.0007271634685 |
| 16 | 135 | 140.999008347509 | -5.99900834750918 |
| 17 | 125 | 135.000396576213 | -10.000396576213 |
| 18 | 149 | 125.00066109583 | 23.99933890417 |
| 19 | 170 | 148.998413476631 | 21.0015865233694 |
| 20 | 170 | 169.998611648931 | 0.00138835106861279 |
| 21 | 158 | 169.99999990822 | -11.9999999082203 |
| 22 | 133 | 158.00079328353 | -25.0007932835302 |
| 23 | 114 | 133.001652726475 | -19.0016527264754 |
| 24 | 140 | 114.001256141522 | 25.9987438584776 |
| 25 | 145 | 139.998281302045 | 5.00171869795543 |
| 26 | 150 | 144.999669351575 | 5.00033064842467 |
| 27 | 178 | 149.999669443335 | 28.0003305566649 |
| 28 | 163 | 177.99814898323 | -14.9981489832301 |
| 29 | 172 | 163.000991482055 | 8.99900851794482 |
| 30 | 178 | 171.999405102892 | 6.0005948971083 |
| 31 | 199 | 177.999603318905 | 21.0003966810949 |
| 32 | 199 | 198.998611727588 | 0.00138827241178774 |
| 33 | 184 | 198.999999908226 | -14.9999999082255 |
| 34 | 162 | 184.000991604414 | -22.0009916044142 |
| 35 | 146 | 162.001454418702 | -16.0014544187017 |
| 36 | 166 | 146.001057807529 | 19.9989421924712 |
| 37 | 171 | 165.998677930701 | 5.0013220692986 |
| 38 | 180 | 170.999669377795 | 9.00033062220473 |
| 39 | 193 | 179.999405015491 | 13.0005949845086 |
| 40 | 181 | 192.99914057017 | -11.9991405701698 |
| 41 | 183 | 181.000793226722 | 1.99920677327808 |
| 42 | 218 | 182.999867838515 | 35.0001321614849 |
| 43 | 230 | 217.997686247616 | 12.0023137523841 |
| 44 | 242 | 229.999206563509 | 12.0007934364913 |
| 45 | 209 | 241.999206664012 | -32.9992066640121 |
| 46 | 191 | 209.00218147728 | -18.0021814772796 |
| 47 | 172 | 191.001190069515 | -19.0011900695152 |
| 48 | 194 | 172.001256110938 | 21.9987438890624 |
| 49 | 196 | 193.998545729888 | 2.00145427011205 |
| 50 | 196 | 195.99986768994 | 0.000132310060081409 |
| 51 | 236 | 195.999999991253 | 40.0000000087466 |
| 52 | 235 | 235.997355721545 | -0.997355721545347 |
| 53 | 229 | 235.000065932156 | -6.00006593215613 |
| 54 | 243 | 229.000396646127 | 13.9996033538733 |
| 55 | 264 | 242.999074528762 | 21.0009254712379 |
| 56 | 272 | 263.998611692632 | 8.00138830736847 |
| 57 | 237 | 271.999471052532 | -34.9994710525324 |
| 58 | 211 | 237.00231370868 | -26.0023137086802 |
| 59 | 180 | 211.001718933947 | -31.0017189339474 |
| 60 | 201 | 180.002049429435 | 20.9979505705646 |
| 61 | 204 | 200.998611889293 | 3.00138811070684 |
| 62 | 188 | 203.999801587352 | -15.9998015873522 |
| 63 | 235 | 188.001057698265 | 46.9989423017348 |
| 64 | 227 | 234.996893042738 | -7.99689304273767 |
| 65 | 234 | 227.000528650299 | 6.99947134970068 |
| 66 | 264 | 233.999537286218 | 30.000462713782 |
| 67 | 302 | 263.998016760571 | 38.0019832394291 |
| 68 | 293 | 301.997487804363 | -8.99748780436272 |
| 69 | 259 | 293.000594796579 | -34.0005947965785 |
| 70 | 229 | 259.002247676006 | -30.0022476760062 |
| 71 | 203 | 229.001983357428 | -26.0019833574276 |
| 72 | 229 | 203.001718912109 | 25.9982810878911 |
| 73 | 242 | 228.998281332637 | 13.0017186673631 |
| 74 | 233 | 241.999140495887 | -8.99914049588654 |
| 75 | 267 | 233.000594905833 | 33.999405094167 |
| 76 | 269 | 266.997752402641 | 2.00224759735852 |
| 77 | 270 | 268.999867637495 | 1.00013236250453 |
| 78 | 315 | 269.999933884289 | 45.0000661157114 |
| 79 | 364 | 314.997025182368 | 49.0029748176315 |
| 80 | 347 | 363.996760562238 | -16.9967605622376 |
| 81 | 312 | 347.001123604194 | -35.0011236041936 |
| 82 | 274 | 312.002313817925 | -38.0023138179254 |
| 83 | 237 | 274.002512217491 | -37.0025122174908 |
| 84 | 278 | 237.002446123645 | 40.9975538763549 |
| 85 | 284 | 277.99728977629 | 6.00271022370964 |
| 86 | 277 | 283.999603179067 | -6.99960317906726 |
| 87 | 317 | 277.000462722497 | 39.9995372775032 |
| 88 | 313 | 316.997355752135 | -3.99735575213509 |
| 89 | 318 | 313.000264253042 | 4.99973574695775 |
| 90 | 374 | 317.999669482662 | 56.0003305173378 |
| 91 | 413 | 373.996297988315 | 39.0037020116852 |
| 92 | 405 | 412.997421583779 | -7.99742158377853 |
| 93 | 355 | 405.00052868524 | -50.0005286852395 |
| 94 | 306 | 355.003305383017 | -49.0033053830174 |
| 95 | 271 | 306.003239459615 | -35.003239459615 |
| 96 | 306 | 271.002313957798 | 34.9976860422018 |
| 97 | 315 | 305.997686409321 | 9.00231359067863 |
| 98 | 301 | 314.999404884403 | -13.9994048844034 |
| 99 | 356 | 301.000925458118 | 54.9990745418824 |
| 100 | 348 | 355.996364178305 | -7.99636417830487 |
| 101 | 355 | 348.000528615338 | 6.99947138466234 |
| 102 | 422 | 354.999537286216 | 67.0004627137843 |
| 103 | 465 | 421.995570803001 | 43.0044291969992 |
| 104 | 467 | 464.997157107861 | 2.00284289213886 |
| 105 | 404 | 466.999867598142 | -62.9998675981423 |
| 106 | 347 | 404.004164729812 | -57.0041647298125 |
| 107 | 305 | 347.003768372115 | -42.0037683721147 |
| 108 | 336 | 305.002776741492 | 30.9972232585076 |
| 109 | 340 | 335.99795086776 | 4.00204913223996 |
| 110 | 318 | 339.999735436693 | -21.9997354366927 |
| 111 | 362 | 318.00145433566 | 43.9985456643398 |
| 112 | 348 | 361.997091389842 | -13.9970913898422 |
| 113 | 363 | 348.00092530518 | 14.9990746948205 |
| 114 | 435 | 362.999008456749 | 72.0009915432512 |
| 115 | 491 | 434.995240233235 | 56.0047597667652 |
| 116 | 505 | 490.996297695511 | 14.0037023044894 |
| 117 | 404 | 504.999074257793 | -100.999074257793 |
| 118 | 359 | 404.006676741899 | -45.0066767418986 |
| 119 | 310 | 359.00297525464 | -49.00297525464 |
| 120 | 337 | 310.003239437791 | 26.9967605622087 |
| 121 | 360 | 336.998215326193 | 23.0017846738072 |
| 122 | 342 | 359.99847942191 | -17.9984794219096 |
| 123 | 406 | 342.001189824784 | 63.9988101752164 |
| 124 | 396 | 405.995769233129 | -9.99576923312918 |
| 125 | 420 | 396.00066078993 | 23.9993392100696 |
| 126 | 472 | 419.99841347661 | 52.0015865233896 |
| 127 | 548 | 471.996562333129 | 76.0034376668706 |
| 128 | 559 | 547.994975643684 | 11.0050243563164 |
| 129 | 463 | 558.99927249128 | -95.9992724912802 |
| 130 | 407 | 463.006346220196 | -56.0063462201964 |
| 131 | 362 | 407.003702409365 | -45.003702409365 |
| 132 | 405 | 362.002975058016 | 42.9970249419841 |
| 133 | 417 | 404.997157597334 | 12.0028424026661 |
| 134 | 391 | 416.999206528561 | -25.9992065285612 |
| 135 | 419 | 391.001718728541 | 27.9982812714588 |
| 136 | 461 | 418.998149118702 | 42.0018508812979 |
| 137 | 472 | 460.997223385267 | 11.0027766147329 |
| 138 | 535 | 471.999272639872 | 63.0007273601285 |
| 139 | 622 | 534.995835213351 | 87.0041647866487 |
| 140 | 606 | 621.994248419041 | -15.994248419041 |
| 141 | 508 | 606.001057331162 | -98.0010573311621 |
| 142 | 461 | 508.006478552109 | -47.0064785521095 |
| 143 | 390 | 461.003107455461 | -71.003107455461 |
| 144 | 432 | 390.00469379968 | 41.9953062003196 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 431.997223817916 | 365.838723296861 | 498.155724338972 |
| 146 | 431.997223817916 | 338.43806762164 | 525.556380014192 |
| 147 | 431.997223817916 | 317.412389633265 | 546.582058002567 |
| 148 | 431.997223817916 | 299.686783027748 | 564.307664608084 |
| 149 | 431.997223817916 | 284.070142933268 | 579.924304702565 |
| 150 | 431.997223817916 | 269.951582790402 | 594.04286484543 |
| 151 | 431.997223817916 | 256.968202530066 | 607.026245105766 |
| 152 | 431.997223817916 | 244.883550319832 | 619.110897316 |
| 153 | 431.997223817916 | 233.533384978413 | 630.461062657419 |
| 154 | 431.997223817916 | 222.798122854559 | 641.196324781273 |
| 155 | 431.997223817916 | 212.587487568948 | 651.406960066884 |
| 156 | 431.997223817916 | 202.831343116171 | 661.163104519661 |
