| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 1 |
| beta | 0.00321851640040526 |
| gamma | FALSE |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 3 | 132 | 124 | 8 |
| 4 | 129 | 138.025748131203 | -9.02574813120324 |
| 5 | 121 | 134.996698612817 | -13.996698612817 |
| 6 | 135 | 126.95165000878 | 8.04834999121985 |
| 7 | 148 | 140.977553755223 | 7.02244624477692 |
| 8 | 148 | 154.000155613633 | -6.00015561363287 |
| 9 | 136 | 153.980844014385 | -17.9808440143854 |
| 10 | 119 | 141.922972373032 | -22.922972373032 |
| 11 | 104 | 124.849194410503 | -20.8491944105033 |
| 12 | 118 | 109.782090936358 | 8.2179090636421 |
| 13 | 115 | 123.808540411456 | -8.80854041145628 |
| 14 | 126 | 120.780189979678 | 5.21981002032163 |
| 15 | 141 | 131.796990023836 | 9.20300997616422 |
| 16 | 135 | 146.826610062377 | -11.8266100623771 |
| 17 | 125 | 140.78854592393 | -15.7885459239302 |
| 18 | 149 | 130.737730229935 | 18.2622697700645 |
| 19 | 170 | 154.796507644699 | 15.2034923553009 |
| 20 | 170 | 175.845440334188 | -5.84544033418803 |
| 21 | 158 | 175.826626688605 | -17.8266266886048 |
| 22 | 133 | 163.769251398244 | -30.7692513982437 |
| 23 | 114 | 138.67022005799 | -24.6702200579902 |
| 24 | 140 | 119.590818550132 | 20.409181449868 |
| 25 | 145 | 145.656505835347 | -0.656505835347218 |
| 26 | 150 | 150.654392860549 | -0.654392860549194 |
| 27 | 178 | 155.652286686395 | 22.3477133136048 |
| 28 | 163 | 183.724213168207 | -20.7242131682066 |
| 29 | 172 | 168.657511948239 | 3.34248805176077 |
| 30 | 178 | 177.668269800852 | 0.331730199148012 |
| 31 | 199 | 183.669337479938 | 15.3306625200615 |
| 32 | 199 | 204.718679468688 | -5.71867946868835 |
| 33 | 184 | 204.70027380503 | -20.7002738050297 |
| 34 | 162 | 189.633649634295 | -27.6336496342954 |
| 35 | 146 | 167.544710279744 | -21.5447102797443 |
| 36 | 166 | 151.475368276367 | 14.524631723633 |
| 37 | 171 | 171.522116041779 | -0.522116041779356 |
| 38 | 180 | 176.520435602736 | 3.47956439726403 |
| 39 | 193 | 185.531634637815 | 7.46836536218518 |
| 40 | 181 | 198.555671694217 | -17.5556716942172 |
| 41 | 183 | 186.499168476949 | -3.49916847694928 |
| 42 | 218 | 188.487906345818 | 29.5120936541816 |
| 43 | 230 | 223.582891503255 | 6.4171084967453 |
| 44 | 242 | 235.603545072195 | 6.39645492780534 |
| 45 | 209 | 247.624132167284 | -38.6241321672842 |
| 46 | 191 | 214.499819764452 | -23.4998197644524 |
| 47 | 172 | 196.424185209134 | -24.424185209134 |
| 48 | 194 | 177.345575568472 | 16.6544244315282 |
| 49 | 196 | 199.399178106644 | -3.39917810664403 |
| 50 | 196 | 201.38823779616 | -5.3882377961599 |
| 51 | 236 | 201.370895664444 | 34.6291043355563 |
| 52 | 235 | 241.482350004679 | -6.48235000467901 |
| 53 | 229 | 240.461486454876 | -11.4614864548758 |
| 54 | 243 | 234.424597472748 | 8.57540252725227 |
| 55 | 264 | 248.452197546422 | 15.5478024535782 |
| 56 | 272 | 269.502238403609 | 2.49776159639111 |
| 57 | 237 | 277.510277490271 | -40.5102774902712 |
| 58 | 211 | 242.379894497784 | -31.3798944977838 |
| 59 | 180 | 216.2788977927 | -36.2788977926996 |
| 60 | 201 | 185.162133565165 | 15.8378664348348 |
| 61 | 204 | 206.213107998033 | -2.21310799803317 |
| 62 | 188 | 209.205985073646 | -21.2059850736456 |
| 63 | 235 | 193.137733262899 | 41.8622667371006 |
| 64 | 227 | 240.272467654951 | -13.2724676549508 |
| 65 | 234 | 232.22975000013 | 1.77024999987046 |
| 66 | 264 | 239.235447578787 | 24.7645524212131 |
| 67 | 302 | 269.315152696903 | 32.6848473030967 |
| 68 | 293 | 307.420349413993 | -14.4203494139931 |
| 69 | 259 | 298.373937282905 | -39.3739372829045 |
| 70 | 229 | 264.247211620011 | -35.247211620011 |
| 71 | 203 | 234.133767891343 | -31.1337678913434 |
| 72 | 229 | 208.033563348779 | 20.9664366512213 |
| 73 | 242 | 234.101044168999 | 7.89895583100125 |
| 74 | 233 | 247.126467087887 | -14.1264670878869 |
| 75 | 267 | 238.081000821885 | 28.9189991781153 |
| 76 | 269 | 272.174077095023 | -3.17407709502282 |
| 77 | 270 | 274.163861275836 | -4.16386127583633 |
| 78 | 315 | 275.150459820031 | 39.8495401799689 |
| 79 | 364 | 320.278716218649 | 43.7212837813511 |
| 80 | 347 | 369.419433887546 | -22.4194338875459 |
| 81 | 312 | 352.347276571891 | -40.3472765718911 |
| 82 | 274 | 317.217418200533 | -43.2174182005327 |
| 83 | 237 | 279.078322231271 | -42.0783222312712 |
| 84 | 278 | 241.942892461068 | 36.0571075389317 |
| 85 | 284 | 283.058942853033 | 0.9410571469665 |
| 86 | 277 | 289.061971660895 | -12.0619716608948 |
| 87 | 317 | 282.023150007283 | 34.9768499927171 |
| 88 | 313 | 322.135723572619 | -9.13572357261899 |
| 89 | 318 | 318.106320096471 | -0.106320096470938 |
| 90 | 374 | 323.105977903497 | 50.8940220965032 |
| 91 | 413 | 379.269781148297 | 33.7302188517031 |
| 92 | 405 | 418.37834241086 | -13.3783424108604 |
| 93 | 355 | 410.335283996401 | -55.3352839964008 |
| 94 | 306 | 360.157186477337 | -54.1571864773373 |
| 95 | 271 | 310.98288068446 | -39.9828806844602 |
| 96 | 306 | 275.854195127242 | 30.1458048727582 |
| 97 | 315 | 310.951219894628 | 4.04878010537175 |
| 98 | 301 | 319.964250959799 | -18.964250959799 |
| 99 | 356 | 305.903214207064 | 50.0967857929365 |
| 100 | 348 | 361.064451533746 | -13.0644515337456 |
| 101 | 355 | 353.022403382222 | 1.97759661777803 |
| 102 | 422 | 360.02876830937 | 61.9712316906303 |
| 103 | 465 | 427.228223734919 | 37.7717762650807 |
| 104 | 467 | 470.349792816301 | -3.34979281630092 |
| 105 | 404 | 472.339011453184 | -68.3390114531837 |
| 106 | 347 | 409.119061224034 | -62.1190612240341 |
| 107 | 305 | 351.919130006707 | -46.9191300067068 |
| 108 | 336 | 309.768120017287 | 26.2318799827125 |
| 109 | 340 | 340.852547753225 | -0.852547753225281 |
| 110 | 318 | 344.849803814299 | -26.8498038142994 |
| 111 | 362 | 322.763387280375 | 39.2366127196246 |
| 112 | 348 | 366.88967096191 | -18.8896709619099 |
| 113 | 363 | 352.828874246121 | 10.1711257538793 |
| 114 | 435 | 367.86161018117 | 67.1383898188299 |
| 115 | 491 | 440.077696189899 | 50.9223038101011 |
| 116 | 505 | 496.241590459858 | 8.75840954014194 |
| 117 | 404 | 510.269779544604 | -106.269779544604 |
| 118 | 359 | 408.927748516273 | -49.9277485162727 |
| 119 | 310 | 363.767055238838 | -53.7670552388378 |
| 120 | 337 | 314.59400508975 | 22.4059949102499 |
| 121 | 360 | 341.666119151836 | 18.3338808481639 |
| 122 | 342 | 364.725127048029 | -22.725127048029 |
| 123 | 406 | 346.651985853924 | 59.3480141460764 |
| 124 | 396 | 410.842998410784 | -14.8429984107843 |
| 125 | 420 | 400.795225976968 | 19.204774023032 |
| 126 | 472 | 424.857036857127 | 47.1429631428728 |
| 127 | 548 | 477.008767257166 | 70.9912327428337 |
| 128 | 559 | 553.237253704034 | 5.76274629596594 |
| 129 | 463 | 564.255801197499 | -101.255801197499 |
| 130 | 407 | 467.929907740709 | -60.9299077407086 |
| 131 | 362 | 411.73380383337 | -49.73380383337 |
| 132 | 405 | 366.573734770078 | 38.4262652299223 |
| 133 | 417 | 409.697410334927 | 7.30258966507341 |
| 134 | 391 | 421.720913839529 | -30.720913839529 |
| 135 | 419 | 395.622038074501 | 23.3779619254989 |
| 136 | 461 | 423.697280428366 | 37.3027195716336 |
| 137 | 472 | 465.817339843087 | 6.18266015691262 |
| 138 | 535 | 476.837238836201 | 58.1627611637995 |
| 139 | 622 | 540.024436636899 | 81.9755633631009 |
| 140 | 606 | 627.288276332016 | -21.2882763320157 |
| 141 | 508 | 611.219759665505 | -103.219759665505 |
| 142 | 461 | 512.887545176175 | -51.8875451761754 |
| 143 | 390 | 465.720544261049 | -75.7205442610491 |
| 144 | 432 | 394.476836447497 | 37.5231635525027 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 145 | 436.597605364786 | 370.101864270584 | 503.093346458988 |
| 146 | 441.195210729572 | 347.004576942849 | 535.385844516295 |
| 147 | 445.792816094358 | 330.247728204276 | 561.337903984441 |
| 148 | 450.390421459145 | 316.756029486461 | 584.024813431828 |
| 149 | 454.988026823931 | 305.340383182659 | 604.635670465203 |
| 150 | 459.585632188717 | 295.391970523443 | 623.779293853991 |
| 151 | 464.183237553503 | 286.549721076461 | 641.816754030545 |
| 152 | 468.780842918289 | 278.578761464571 | 658.982924372007 |
| 153 | 473.378448283075 | 271.316212874953 | 675.440683691197 |
| 154 | 477.976053647861 | 264.643676007955 | 691.308431287768 |
| 155 | 482.573659012648 | 258.471913123583 | 706.675404901712 |
| 156 | 487.171264377434 | 252.731706989362 | 721.610821765505 |
