| Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing | |
| Parameter | Value |
| alpha | 0.122289931531039 |
| beta | 0 |
| gamma | 0.441017824817012 |
| Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Observed | Fitted | Residuals |
| 28 | 2.856236094 | 2.74175644997824 | 0.114479644021757 |
| 29 | 2.72013438 | 2.62898635124259 | 0.0911480287574071 |
| 30 | 2.780911321 | 2.67838982617005 | 0.102521494829948 |
| 31 | 3.039851086 | 2.92342113581813 | 0.116429950181872 |
| 32 | 2.886697125 | 2.78220480500037 | 0.104492319999626 |
| 33 | 2.376367167 | 2.31692130950129 | 0.0594458574987144 |
| 34 | 3.312760232 | 3.25068948126132 | 0.0620707507386804 |
| 35 | 3.334238072 | 3.31204878881372 | 0.0221892831862762 |
| 36 | 3.174196678 | 3.16001511765201 | 0.0141815603479909 |
| 37 | 3.684077654 | 3.70480463505713 | -0.0207269810571251 |
| 38 | 3.840130345 | 3.90439942647211 | -0.0642690814721094 |
| 39 | 3.727837739 | 3.77787976429752 | -0.0500420252975169 |
| 40 | 3.8874362 | 3.92836547499655 | -0.0409292749965515 |
| 41 | 4.024884028 | 4.00859214367632 | 0.0162918843236799 |
| 42 | 3.653483655 | 3.93449594838186 | -0.281012293381858 |
| 43 | 4.569710047 | 3.96406726758893 | 0.605642779411069 |
| 44 | 4.126548311 | 3.48642994419876 | 0.640118366801242 |
| 45 | 3.766787543 | 3.83117365506706 | -0.0643861120670581 |
| 46 | 2.864388328 | 3.82782301378458 | -0.963434685784577 |
| 47 | 4.094131663 | 3.80847557005318 | 0.285656092946822 |
| 48 | 3.386819021 | 4.25195693605482 | -0.865137915054818 |
| 49 | 3.503443016 | 3.51151793457457 | -0.0080749185745721 |
| 50 | 3.272177755 | 4.04327820443687 | -0.771100449436867 |
| 51 | 3.40519714 | 4.4411237008921 | -1.0359265608921 |
| 52 | 3.472362039 | 2.96748327905057 | 0.504878759949427 |
| 53 | 3.609824437 | 3.25287053350853 | 0.356953903491467 |
| 54 | 2.730183454 | 3.57077859754666 | -0.840595143546657 |
| 55 | 3.406713897 | 2.66084786592227 | 0.745866031077735 |
| 56 | 2.50210704 | 2.61625862861436 | -0.114151588614359 |
| 57 | 2.912656034 | 2.6449585344354 | 0.267697499564604 |
| 58 | 2.134073195 | 2.91557297175409 | -0.781499776754086 |
| 59 | 3.18260829 | 2.65992798915693 | 0.522680300843066 |
| 60 | 3.035632417 | 2.22834782789392 | 0.807284589106083 |
| 61 | 3.625164771 | 3.25458520579938 | 0.370579565200625 |
| 62 | 3.971415115 | 3.33823448596596 | 0.633180629034043 |
| 63 | 3.849165875 | 3.25781922897137 | 0.591346646028628 |
| 64 | 4.304022056 | 3.85967762502593 | 0.444344430974071 |
| 65 | 4.576891503 | 4.09929143944616 | 0.477600063553844 |
| 66 | 3.714060924 | 4.04454400912623 | -0.330483085126226 |
| 67 | 4.365703348 | 4.16426201792604 | 0.201441330073956 |
| 68 | 4.503488893 | 4.29627766869147 | 0.207211224308526 |
| 69 | 4.539175735 | 4.13044676533651 | 0.408728969663487 |
| 70 | 4.067356604 | 4.58757807144348 | -0.520221467443484 |
| 71 | 3.565446391 | 3.98560389620794 | -0.420157505207937 |
| 72 | 3.545495746 | 3.92798287389318 | -0.382487127893177 |
| 73 | 3.908499731 | 3.53772275806044 | 0.370776972939559 |
| 74 | 4.852775545 | 4.16504125161385 | 0.687734293386147 |
| 75 | 4.069836444 | 4.21223673100796 | -0.142400287007962 |
| 76 | 4.70926799 | 3.89193816754875 | 0.817329822451248 |
| 77 | 4.468692803 | 4.22928078992267 | 0.239412013077329 |
| 78 | 4.228992763 | 4.64819136293163 | -0.419198599931629 |
| 79 | 2.671861379 | 3.84639439869244 | -1.17453301969244 |
| 80 | 3.680124777 | 3.86914689239055 | -0.189022115390553 |
| 81 | 2.326323607 | 3.65673337325438 | -1.33040976625438 |
| 82 | 2.698756539 | 3.30099981445061 | -0.602243275450608 |
| 83 | 2.906172536 | 2.75864978673274 | 0.147522749267263 |
| 84 | 3.021760735 | 2.96715818354858 | 0.0546025514514201 |
| 85 | 2.419864148 | 2.80558390270241 | -0.38571975470241 |
| 86 | 3.041847213 | 3.10316840130329 | -0.061321188303292 |
| 87 | 3.586530369 | 2.71033701231672 | 0.876193356683278 |
| 88 | 2.833921704 | 3.57595893160479 | -0.742037227604793 |
| 89 | 3.03558185 | 3.62519551935148 | -0.589613669351477 |
| 90 | 3.48675761 | 3.37905149117041 | 0.10770611882959 |
| 91 | 4.047724986 | 3.86486305242525 | 0.182861933574749 |
| 92 | 4.726870241 | 4.08537297279195 | 0.641497268208048 |
| 93 | 3.962898545 | 3.73787102028053 | 0.225027524719468 |
| 94 | 3.996844624 | 4.13142276345656 | -0.134578139456562 |
| 95 | 3.616675688 | 4.22458006034041 | -0.607904372340411 |
| 96 | 4.219350065 | 4.03707338117709 | 0.182276683822913 |
| 97 | 4.713360311 | 4.10692834337911 | 0.606431967620889 |
| 98 | 4.144038028 | 3.68146587697058 | 0.462572151029417 |
| 99 | 3.939931061 | 3.74637547145978 | 0.193555589540221 |
| 100 | 2.927189043 | 3.71813740604692 | -0.79094836304692 |
| 101 | 4.23724153 | 4.32607826106975 | -0.0888367310697529 |
| 102 | 4.790710798 | 3.95697362716721 | 0.83373717083279 |
| 103 | 2.970995549 | 4.12754472960785 | -1.15654918060785 |
| 104 | 3.414233716 | 3.9997980548152 | -0.585564338815202 |
| 105 | 3.117208913 | 4.06288351994822 | -0.945674606948221 |
| 106 | 2.953675281 | 2.90432462388432 | 0.0493506571156801 |
| 107 | 2.60032929 | 3.45822303085205 | -0.857893740852052 |
| 108 | 2.684560041 | 2.72219831136447 | -0.037638270364468 |
| 109 | 3.071204864 | 2.80642058813924 | 0.264784275860762 |
| 110 | 2.447474589 | 2.66032307071308 | -0.212848481713083 |
| 111 | 3.1676476 | 2.7887936066326 | 0.378853993367404 |
| 112 | 3.095930228 | 2.49642950679142 | 0.599500721208579 |
| 113 | 3.7331813 | 3.04006662373204 | 0.693114676267961 |
| 114 | 4.035545058 | 3.10239369876616 | 0.933151359233844 |
| 115 | 3.9278554 | 3.34858695190631 | 0.579268448093692 |
| 116 | 4.440257835 | 3.61840691299766 | 0.82185092200234 |
| 117 | 3.794753511 | 3.81479337080658 | -0.0200398598065803 |
| 118 | 3.91470167 | 4.31407463264483 | -0.39937296264483 |
| 119 | 3.696880308 | 4.64091430605227 | -0.944033998052269 |
| 120 | 4.515557634 | 3.9383083258725 | 0.577249308127501 |
| 121 | 4.902714081 | 4.23573500593948 | 0.666979075060524 |
| 122 | 3.052419698 | 4.24369682318557 | -1.19127712518557 |
| 123 | 4.140574781 | 4.29071738460766 | -0.150142603607665 |
| 124 | 4.035862951 | 4.48410529599273 | -0.448242344992733 |
| 125 | 3.672131838 | 3.87398069004078 | -0.201848852040776 |
| 126 | 3.901606602 | 3.75350579861653 | 0.148100803383466 |
| 127 | 2.910216404 | 3.33862158498119 | -0.42840518098119 |
| 128 | 3.704220106 | 4.26267525328918 | -0.558455147289175 |
| 129 | 3.646439201 | 4.19325625865934 | -0.546817057659338 |
| 130 | 3.748108569 | 3.42458792387036 | 0.323520645129641 |
| 131 | 2.742220487 | 3.69885900256014 | -0.956638515560145 |
| 132 | 3.594378441 | 3.57717226612141 | 0.0172061748785888 |
| 133 | 3.215100958 | 2.92152413058977 | 0.293576827410231 |
| 134 | 2.52694464 | 3.1541075290306 | -0.627162889030596 |
| 135 | 2.966995643 | 2.7638081024859 | 0.203187540514097 |
| Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing | |||
| t | Forecast | 95% Lower Bound | 95% Upper Bound |
| 136 | 2.99454441995659 | 1.9266487050098 | 4.06244013490337 |
| 137 | 2.63118160055449 | 1.55533042035843 | 3.70703278075054 |
| 138 | 3.01472097991006 | 1.93097273153464 | 4.09846922828548 |
| 139 | 2.7614360630615 | 1.66984787615934 | 3.85302424996366 |
| 140 | 3.26799690915407 | 2.16862469115332 | 4.36736912715482 |
| 141 | 3.33847782579075 | 2.2313763048635 | 4.44557934671801 |
| 142 | 3.33357301856883 | 2.21879578451398 | 4.44835025262368 |
| 143 | 3.62645450819732 | 2.50405405136628 | 4.74885496502837 |
| 144 | 3.39645291868309 | 2.26648066706712 | 4.52642517029907 |
| 145 | 3.75135040163435 | 2.61385675622369 | 4.88884404704501 |
| 146 | 3.91619882273163 | 2.77123319124867 | 5.06116445421459 |
| 147 | 3.9179058386455 | 2.76551666774674 | 5.07029500954425 |
| 148 | 4.17947385763576 | 3.01970866367093 | 5.33923905160058 |
| 149 | 3.38656628905498 | 2.21947168746529 | 4.55366089064468 |
| 150 | 3.98227642235116 | 2.80789815578312 | 5.15665468891921 |
| 151 | 4.07863508998453 | 2.89701805519072 | 5.26025212477833 |
| 152 | 3.61870142840251 | 2.42988970199564 | 4.80751315480937 |
| 153 | 3.65837115642997 | 2.46240801955241 | 4.85433429330753 |
| 154 | 3.00221843404955 | 1.79914639601627 | 4.20529047208284 |
| 155 | 3.92832124928161 | 2.71818207025091 | 5.13846042831231 |
| 156 | 3.9317006354397 | 2.71453534816248 | 5.14886592271693 |
| 157 | 3.5667978742792 | 2.34264680497435 | 4.79094894358404 |
| 158 | 3.30597422150992 | 2.07487700991055 | 4.53707143310929 |
| 159 | 3.67823618031607 | 2.44023179892831 | 4.91624056170383 |
| 160 | 3.12746305388253 | 1.88258982649637 | 4.37233628126869 |
| 161 | 2.96773970608205 | 1.71603532557106 | 4.21944408659303 |
| 162 | 2.97555283432061 | 1.71705437976537 | 4.23405128887585 |
| 163 | 3.10279035270782 | 1.7317648242448 | 4.47381588117084 |
| 164 | 2.73942753330572 | 1.36219643300887 | 4.11665863360256 |
| 165 | 3.12296691266129 | 1.73955807665062 | 4.50637574867197 |
| 166 | 2.86968199581274 | 1.48012288894468 | 4.25924110268079 |
| 167 | 3.3762428419053 | 1.98056056595296 | 4.77192511785764 |
| 168 | 3.44672375854198 | 2.0449450601252 | 4.84850245695877 |
| 169 | 3.44181895132006 | 2.03397022959511 | 4.84966767304502 |
| 170 | 3.73470044094856 | 2.32080775506672 | 5.14859312683039 |
| 171 | 3.50469885143433 | 2.08478792777831 | 4.92460977509035 |
| 172 | 3.85959633438558 | 2.43369257359202 | 5.28550009517915 |
| 173 | 4.02444475548287 | 2.59257323925916 | 5.45631627170657 |
| 174 | 4.02615177139673 | 2.5883372691398 | 5.46396627365366 |
| 175 | 4.28771979038699 | 2.84398676561133 | 5.73145281516265 |
| 176 | 3.49481222180622 | 2.04518483838818 | 4.94443960522425 |
| 177 | 4.09052235510239 | 2.63502448334752 | 5.54602022685727 |
| 178 | 4.18688102273576 | 2.72553624527545 | 5.64822580019607 |
| 179 | 3.72694736115374 | 2.25977897867746 | 5.19411574363002 |
| 180 | 3.7666170891812 | 2.29364812601001 | 5.23958605235239 |
| 181 | 3.11046436680079 | 1.63171757630785 | 4.58921115729372 |
| 182 | 4.03656718203284 | 2.55206505191625 | 5.52106931214944 |
| 183 | 4.03994656819093 | 2.54971132560396 | 5.53018181077791 |
| 184 | 3.67504380703043 | 2.17909742357419 | 5.17099019048667 |
| 185 | 3.41422015426115 | 1.91258435084431 | 4.915855957678 |
| 186 | 3.7864821130673 | 2.27917836463738 | 5.29378586149723 |
| 187 | 3.23570898663376 | 1.72275852678438 | 4.74865944648314 |
| 188 | 3.07598563883328 | 1.55740946429148 | 4.59456181337507 |
| 189 | 3.08379876707184 | 1.55961764206945 | 4.60797989207423 |
| 190 | 3.21103628545905 | 1.59269740209966 | 4.82937516881844 |
| 191 | 2.84767346605695 | 1.22407399410567 | 4.47127293800823 |
| 192 | 3.23121284541252 | 1.60236977462639 | 4.86005591619866 |
| 193 | 2.97792792856397 | 1.34385808514369 | 4.61199777198424 |
| 194 | 3.48448877465653 | 1.84520882385401 | 5.12376872545905 |
| 195 | 3.55496969129322 | 1.91049613996116 | 5.19944324262527 |
| 196 | 3.5500648840713 | 1.90041408315669 | 5.1997156849859 |
| 197 | 3.84294637369979 | 2.18813452068273 | 5.49775822671685 |
| 198 | 3.61294478418556 | 1.95298792546504 | 5.27290164290608 |
| 199 | 3.96784226713682 | 2.30275630036488 | 5.63292823390876 |
| 200 | 4.1326906882341 | 2.46249136459982 | 5.80289001186837 |
| 201 | 4.13439770414796 | 2.45910063061266 | 5.80969477768326 |
| 202 | 4.39596572313822 | 2.71558636462316 | 6.07634508165328 |
| 203 | 3.60305815455745 | 1.91761183608539 | 5.28850447302951 |
| 204 | 4.19876828785363 | 2.50827019664542 | 5.88926637906183 |
| 205 | 4.29512695548699 | 2.5995921430145 | 5.99066176795948 |
| 206 | 3.83519329390497 | 2.13463667790135 | 5.53574990990859 |
| 207 | 3.87486302193243 | 2.16929938836105 | 5.58042665550382 |
| 208 | 3.21871029955202 | 1.50815430453497 | 4.92926629456907 |
| 209 | 4.14481311478407 | 2.42927928649146 | 5.86034694307669 |
| 210 | 4.14819250094217 | 2.42769524144308 | 5.86868976044125 |
| 211 | 3.78328973978166 | 2.05784332685792 | 5.50873615270541 |
| 212 | 3.52246608701239 | 1.79208467593593 | 5.25284749808885 |
| 213 | 3.89472804581853 | 2.15942567109345 | 5.63003042054361 |
| 214 | 3.34395491938499 | 1.60374549645508 | 5.0841643423149 |
| 215 | 3.18423157158451 | 1.43912889850719 | 4.92933424466183 |
| 216 | 3.19204469982307 | 1.44206245891057 | 4.94202694073558 |
| 217 | 3.31928221821028 | 1.48670739488423 | 5.15185704153634 |
| 218 | 2.95591939880818 | 1.1186973145146 | 4.79314148310177 |
| 219 | 3.33945877816376 | 1.4976011585461 | 5.18131639778141 |
| 220 | 3.0861738613152 | 1.23969234370633 | 4.93265537892407 |
| 221 | 3.59273470740777 | 1.74164084193289 | 5.44382857288264 |
| 222 | 3.66321562404445 | 1.80752087470493 | 5.51891037338397 |
| 223 | 3.65831081682253 | 1.79802656256088 | 5.51859507108417 |
| 224 | 3.95119230645102 | 2.0863298421976 | 5.81605477070445 |
| 225 | 3.72119071693679 | 1.85176125463849 | 5.59062017923509 |
| 226 | 4.07608819988805 | 2.20210286951952 | 5.95007353025658 |
| 227 | 4.24093662098533 | 2.36240647154295 | 6.11946677042771 |
| 228 | 4.24264363689919 | 2.35957963737832 | 6.12570763642007 |
| 229 | 4.50421165588945 | 2.61662469624518 | 6.39179861553372 |
| 230 | 3.71130408730868 | 1.81920497940058 | 5.60340319521679 |
| 231 | 4.30701422060486 | 2.41041369912592 | 6.2036147420838 |
| 232 | 4.40337288823822 | 2.50228161162846 | 6.30446416484799 |
| 233 | 3.9434392266562 | 2.03786777800116 | 5.84901067531125 |
| 234 | 3.98310895468367 | 2.07306784259816 | 5.89315006676917 |
| 235 | 3.32695623230325 | 1.4124558918007 | 5.2414565728058 |
| 236 | 4.25305904753531 | 2.33410984088289 | 6.17200825418772 |
| 237 | 4.2564384336934 | 2.3330506512534 | 6.1798262161334 |
| 238 | 3.8915356725329 | 1.96371953359043 | 5.81935181147536 |
| 239 | 3.63071201976362 | 1.69847767334118 | 5.56294636618606 |
| 240 | 4.00297397856977 | 2.06633150422864 | 5.93961645291089 |
| 241 | 3.45220085213623 | 1.51116026076528 | 5.39324144350717 |
| 242 | 3.29247750433574 | 1.34704873892766 | 5.23790626974382 |
| 243 | 3.3002906325743 | 1.35048356898961 | 5.250097696159 |
| 244 | 3.42752815096152 | 1.40326526665421 | 5.45179103526882 |
| 245 | 3.06416533155942 | 1.03569429930096 | 5.09263636381787 |
| 246 | 3.44770471091499 | 1.41503424262968 | 5.4803751792003 |
| 247 | 3.19441979406643 | 1.15755854779393 | 5.23128104033894 |
| 248 | 3.700980640159 | 1.65993722060754 | 5.74202405971046 |
| 249 | 3.77146155679568 | 1.72624451588734 | 5.81667859770402 |
| 250 | 3.76655674957376 | 1.71717458698197 | 5.81593891216555 |
| 251 | 4.05943823920225 | 2.00589940288165 | 6.11297707552285 |
| 252 | 3.82943664968802 | 1.77174953639686 | 5.88712376297919 |
| 253 | 4.18433413263928 | 2.12250708845443 | 6.24616117682414 |
| 254 | 4.34918255373656 | 2.2832238745613 | 6.41514123291183 |
| 255 | 4.35088956965043 | 2.28080750171516 | 6.4209716375857 |
| 256 | 4.61245758864069 | 2.53826032899668 | 6.68665484828469 |
| 257 | 3.81955002005991 | 1.74124571706619 | 5.89785432305364 |
| 258 | 4.41526015335609 | 2.33285690715957 | 6.49766339955261 |
| 259 | 4.51161882098946 | 2.42512468399857 | 6.59811295798034 |
| 260 | 4.05168515940743 | 1.96110813675917 | 6.1422621820557 |
| 261 | 4.0913548874349 | 1.99670293745551 | 6.18600683741428 |
| 262 | 3.43520216505448 | 1.33648319971396 | 5.533921130395 |
| 263 | 4.36130498028654 | 2.25852686564688 | 6.4640830949262 |
| 264 | 4.36468436644463 | 2.25785492310208 | 6.47151380978718 |
| 265 | 3.99978160528413 | 1.88890860880551 | 6.11065460176275 |
| 266 | 3.73895795251485 | 1.62404913386801 | 5.85386677116169 |
| 267 | 4.111219911321 | 1.99228295729954 | 6.23015686534245 |
| 268 | 3.56044678488746 | 1.43748933852984 | 5.68340423124508 |
| 269 | 3.40072343708698 | 1.27375309809002 | 5.52769377608393 |
| 270 | 3.40853656532554 | 1.27756089045255 | 5.53951224019852 |
