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Author's title

Author*The author of this computation has been verified*
R Software Modulerwasp_structuraltimeseries.wasp
Title produced by softwareStructural Time Series Models
Date of computationMon, 19 Jan 2015 09:17:19 +0000
Cite this page as followsStatistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?v=date/2015/Jan/19/t1421659049k1t5cyehgzgmh7i.htm/, Retrieved Thu, 31 Oct 2024 23:53:12 +0000
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368, Retrieved Thu, 31 Oct 2024 23:53:12 +0000
QR Codes:

Original text written by user:
IsPrivate?No (this computation is public)
User-defined keywords
Estimated Impact126
Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
-     [Univariate Data Series] [data set] [2008-12-01 19:54:57] [b98453cac15ba1066b407e146608df68]
- RMP   [Multiple Regression] [Unemployment] [2010-11-30 13:40:15] [b98453cac15ba1066b407e146608df68]
- RMPD      [Structural Time Series Models] [] [2015-01-19 09:17:19] [138e2467cf1c89ca2583ec64b039d8e8] [Current]
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Dataseries X:
112
118
132
129
121
135
148
148
136
119
104
118
115
126
141
135
125
149
170
170
158
133
114
140
145
150
178
163
172
178
199
199
184
162
146
166
171
180
193
181
183
218
230
242
209
191
172
194
196
196
236
235
229
243
264
272
237
211
180
201
204
188
235
227
234
264
302
293
259
229
203
229
242
233
267
269
270
315
364
347
312
274
237
278
284
277
317
313
318
374
413
405
355
306
271
306
315
301
356
348
355
422
465
467
404
347
305
336
340
318
362
348
363
435
491
505
404
359
310
337
360
342
406
396
420
472
548
559
463
407
362
405
417
391
419
461
472
535
622
606
508
461
390
432




Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gertrude Mary Cox' @ cox.wessa.net

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Summary of computational transaction \tabularnewline
Raw Input & view raw input (R code)  \tabularnewline
Raw Output & view raw output of R engine  \tabularnewline
Computing time & 4 seconds \tabularnewline
R Server & 'Gertrude Mary Cox' @ cox.wessa.net \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368&T=0

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Summary of computational transaction[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Input[/C][C]view raw input (R code) [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Output[/C][C]view raw output of R engine [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Computing time[/C][C]4 seconds[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]R Server[/C][C]'Gertrude Mary Cox' @ cox.wessa.net[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368&T=0

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368&T=0

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time4 seconds
R Server'Gertrude Mary Cox' @ cox.wessa.net







Structural Time Series Model
tObservedLevelSlopeSeasonalStand. Residuals
1112112000
2118116.662660691694.773184596283041.337339308309620.424228086199752
3132130.36539435268611.086293633611.634605647313520.529048182303492
4129132.2554038506034.19626456331728-3.25540385060326-0.555722248049461
5121123.494626313775-5.30231596474222-2.49462631377453-0.743105140735055
6135130.6817950958933.821358788845914.318204904107170.720130136037163
7148145.95414617546712.21060777781852.045853824533370.661413933726645
8148150.7954622478146.80932805948146-2.79546224781396-0.425692617357551
9136139.990520461711-6.09921661026012-3.99052046171122-1.01743382120828
10119120.957802644102-15.575852960984-1.95780264410201-0.74692092578782
11104103.451987938252-16.98990789387380.548012061747831-0.111451576664862
12118111.3207249073451.224059680339056.679275092655181.43557121454608
13115116.0844083319483.81134582845608-1.084408331948030.204507755305892
14126126.6032926287728.7319365884726-0.6032926287724390.393842491594286
15141136.8854290655529.826602528132714.114570934448360.0859104667516074
16135136.6235105140042.70264247456078-1.62351051400396-0.570082862016424
17125132.26578254598-2.3064438805152-7.26578254597955-0.394341927591658
18149144.7753179890598.125929600481164.22468201094140.820765499532419
19170165.12343464350816.7344098391624.876565356491690.678999374537504
20170172.0740601525189.8336802268846-2.07406015251791-0.543950566398601
21158162.374910366543-3.94679540271878-4.37491036654335-1.08607975752017
22133137.890543692836-18.4354258565791-4.89054369283645-1.14202127902442
23114118.554402323149-19.0706500950083-4.55440232314876-0.0500667859326556
24140126.410420293942-0.099167194182086913.58957970605811.49570940092124
25145144.55671357964312.7565716000970.4432864203570291.01622753913443
26150153.0598760691099.75587656104946-3.05987606910869-0.236842074457532
27178168.05458049902313.4122460106029.945419500976710.287576582038791
28163166.1793490525382.7649581275039-3.17934905253831-0.843936935620426
29172180.70190758405710.9918316369533-8.701907584056690.649400425742288
30178182.6632713193584.6935147415959-4.66327131935787-0.495508878745891
31199191.572781419597.629133075401387.427218580410140.231380018841154
32199196.3071861958585.611372050245722.69281380414224-0.159076903408224
33184184.834370093571-6.30429066555181-0.834370093570528-0.939119855795826
34162167.362943995208-14.0929320047736-5.36294399520783-0.613904700032994
35146156.883810085996-11.5736790674629-10.88381008599590.198561325639064
36166155.255957151512-4.6447545837140910.7440428484880.546454103398629
37171165.8133893428825.953570484645365.186610657118350.836837132976558
38180181.91967042639413.0291186308284-1.919670426393770.557592856762758
39193182.26681969314.2362944099093310.7331803068998-0.692294781261979
40181187.0904729148894.64303253356208-6.090472914889340.0321419756069182
41183190.4104740511143.72421790724361-7.41047405111367-0.0725304779171351
42218218.89963516281420.9062887208813-0.8996351628138561.35283018921955
43230227.04113586192412.06476080837392.95886413807611-0.696554742432787
44242234.341611388258.763581439334287.65838861174972-0.260227676805031
45209213.332056274183-11.8793694296199-4.33205627418256-1.62704133492129
46191196.521087801742-15.2988629756126-5.52108780174161-0.269515363128452
47172184.659553690482-12.9163867653801-12.6595536904820.187794396779592
48194184.923152430883-3.782829792971159.07684756911660.720342307591761
49196191.2187411276763.205631759519974.781258872323550.551346831741857
50196193.5793652590382.620114721496452.42063474096171-0.0461303970581764
51236218.30713202398917.892638556152517.6928679760111.20301536113992
52235241.2294954006621.3648406886763-6.229495400659560.274070218067409
53229249.14233068163512.0615504044849-20.1423306816346-0.734159647320932
54243245.7060599270011.34448644009747-2.70605992700094-0.844275931148752
55264257.0652610395438.261259511583936.93473896045710.544865112870836
56272257.4232427304122.8034225312237314.5767572695879-0.43015892390721
57237242.918319258182-9.15456064971263-5.91831925818191-0.942527595661459
58211219.717621625822-18.8597752100944-8.71762162582235-0.764957959581674
59180196.554402039715-21.8326820643722-16.5544020397148-0.234354717964244
60201189.55240002195-11.586515553310111.44759997804990.808018098314225
61204194.8947755653880.1139696152006979.105224434611570.922657384428048
62188193.968010150852-0.604799912117812-5.96801015085155-0.0566275735662766
63235213.76982320261213.461016748603221.2301767973881.10820943958349
64227229.31824504086914.899185509987-2.318245040868530.113458600990099
65234249.22776638320918.3554252901921-15.22776638320880.272673321881451
66264270.88271086388420.6319762095977-6.882710863884030.179400007995152
67302293.37361175348421.91345394669648.626388246515770.100953005732385
68293281.873202730244-1.1123282134424811.1267972697561-1.8145502678856
69259262.838544116705-13.4650232241664-3.83854411670498-0.973630087449214
70229237.991720930741-21.3106154779756-8.99172093074134-0.618420447816356
71203221.812544436748-17.7735208045157-18.8125444367480.278850456827907
72229217.879015788159-8.2316577292182211.1209842118410.752399959898769
73242227.4849774672184.0691592866917214.51502253278170.969739544912286
74233242.2507601082811.4403317596786-9.250760108280260.58074584071076
75267248.0626397416477.5670766383599718.9373602583535-0.305200329098015
76269270.03104266919517.4745675341887-1.031042669195260.781397709791298
77270289.24435928499618.6718156799502-19.24435928499580.0944370993586474
78315320.69100738146627.4708742961284-5.691007381466410.693514204827846
79364346.45823089941526.298146928260617.5417691005849-0.0923937609037124
80347338.399552855432.659738936993698.60044714456973-1.86269968219959
81312316.241246632445-14.4152506868322-4.24124663244464-1.34581034369973
82274286.808838871045-24.7480933065974-12.8088388710448-0.814522126106674
83237259.835954062096-26.2790736812592-22.8359540620962-0.120702775949619
84278264.010296413837-5.3172980143488613.98970358616261.65275188387347
85284269.6683715114822.2380933250678914.33162848851840.595542863951897
86277281.2219020385098.64661735469492-4.221902038508940.504919188762609
87317299.7337164813815.426294230241817.26628351862030.534254380124766
88313316.1649527075316.1167838351696-3.164952707530410.0544499610015525
89318341.78780751170422.6527974427061-23.78780751170420.515484762668069
90374378.08121855960832.0346741376012-4.081218559608110.739517347738673
91413390.98170845451618.880143423142422.0182915454843-1.0364664059051
92405391.7169594116146.4123128808481313.2830405883859-0.982429961873201
93355361.647517720765-18.6508146892272-6.64751772076515-1.97537635871987
94306321.631712042152-33.3295988574643-15.6317120421517-1.15715376903353
95271299.208981707365-25.8346023907585-28.20898170736480.590925951624364
96306290.64764044357-13.96150044796915.35235955642990.936088813010688
97315297.7002648028950.4832661625217817.2997351971051.13849103385478
98301305.7669958822325.69289545501063-4.766995882232490.410472518613986
99356333.3221423781520.699353289372422.67785762185051.18259471303406
100348356.38350159606822.320423211592-8.383501596067960.127820386265803
101355384.08800970358626.0176013563085-29.08800970358590.291563732161444
102422420.36272523054533.06331383520491.637274769455340.555397411729986
103465441.58241147324524.93046801601523.417588526755-0.640839883200141
104467445.92330317254610.799392999861221.0766968274542-1.1134778769915
105404413.091335433132-19.1376659072242-9.09133543313218-2.35948271288976
106347369.497691262088-35.9184597133551-22.4976912620879-1.3228902128677
107305336.359426601366-34.0103331571782-31.35942660136570.150444180006701
108336321.234328622989-21.045330395928414.76567137701071.02212984780482
109340319.887574725373-7.5223809860776620.11242527462751.06578525542172
110318325.7850991104141.68521451513084-7.785099110413680.725496573538331
111362337.5925402465678.6255536277857324.40745975343270.546953694865871
112348357.24023306367716.1821123723225-9.240233063676890.595791749544721
113363393.31081129661229.8234812288097-30.31081129661161.07570034917776
114435431.3385075423335.45243320799763.661492457669890.443727044160513
115491463.21577190069833.000111948118127.7842280993017-0.193243447012732
116505474.71641867551418.260507884075430.2835813244859-1.16143083595589
117404421.551173575707-30.6917992519578-17.551173575707-3.85812331339108
118359381.0457121019-37.4178140405408-22.0457121018997-0.530241025756103
119310346.097530112688-35.7247511120793-36.0975301126880.133488015392727
120337323.990935446682-26.386319161494513.00906455331770.736195483278567
121360333.613484522858-1.6953703212717526.38651547714231.94591938266177
122342348.3404605693019.55953664848347-6.340460569300910.886832445437818
123406379.53557390664524.378830011116326.46442609335471.16789994876742
124396411.73508281590729.7351664157374-15.73508281590680.42229734336832
125420453.44029188307837.9365978268413-33.44029188307770.646695219443857
126472475.78185311288927.2483811536401-3.78185311288862-0.842552142031253
127548510.95589493257232.679216165650137.04410506742770.427965982651617
128559513.66329012498312.151851454238645.3367098750172-1.61750229648595
129463484.876511647302-15.8768915175123-21.876511647302-2.20904065954715
130407434.840687327804-39.2639975055724-27.840687327804-1.84370692817548
131362399.140219829521-36.823551151927-37.14021982952130.192413435082963
132405394.181742876809-14.995579886031210.8182571231911.72076552880008
133417392.714812664306-5.7290279492864824.28518733569440.730297475720311
134391400.3771849828383.43918739344151-9.377184982838010.722427022463098
135419397.703336344454-0.74393620833315321.2966636555464-0.329674040463495
136461463.86396108565245.03558817925-2.863961085652193.60916421644799
137472506.97375433660243.7174067779917-34.9737543366021-0.103936003450084
138535544.91609156208539.7633943883813-9.91609156208539-0.311694512047514
139622578.09507850860935.256002858949643.9049214913912-0.355205283736055
140606560.043255317931-1.2195623253635145.9567446820694-2.87421682824557
141508524.076188293942-24.9870461521075-16.0761882939421-1.87319018376299
142461490.500756534984-30.8615124926861-29.5007565349837-0.463106532155359
143390441.01123096876-43.6064594764187-51.0112309687604-1.00484347008706
144432417.850761362678-29.614351497825814.14923863732221.10301852196438

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Structural Time Series Model \tabularnewline
t & Observed & Level & Slope & Seasonal & Stand. Residuals \tabularnewline
1 & 112 & 112 & 0 & 0 & 0 \tabularnewline
2 & 118 & 116.66266069169 & 4.77318459628304 & 1.33733930830962 & 0.424228086199752 \tabularnewline
3 & 132 & 130.365394352686 & 11.08629363361 & 1.63460564731352 & 0.529048182303492 \tabularnewline
4 & 129 & 132.255403850603 & 4.19626456331728 & -3.25540385060326 & -0.555722248049461 \tabularnewline
5 & 121 & 123.494626313775 & -5.30231596474222 & -2.49462631377453 & -0.743105140735055 \tabularnewline
6 & 135 & 130.681795095893 & 3.82135878884591 & 4.31820490410717 & 0.720130136037163 \tabularnewline
7 & 148 & 145.954146175467 & 12.2106077778185 & 2.04585382453337 & 0.661413933726645 \tabularnewline
8 & 148 & 150.795462247814 & 6.80932805948146 & -2.79546224781396 & -0.425692617357551 \tabularnewline
9 & 136 & 139.990520461711 & -6.09921661026012 & -3.99052046171122 & -1.01743382120828 \tabularnewline
10 & 119 & 120.957802644102 & -15.575852960984 & -1.95780264410201 & -0.74692092578782 \tabularnewline
11 & 104 & 103.451987938252 & -16.9899078938738 & 0.548012061747831 & -0.111451576664862 \tabularnewline
12 & 118 & 111.320724907345 & 1.22405968033905 & 6.67927509265518 & 1.43557121454608 \tabularnewline
13 & 115 & 116.084408331948 & 3.81134582845608 & -1.08440833194803 & 0.204507755305892 \tabularnewline
14 & 126 & 126.603292628772 & 8.7319365884726 & -0.603292628772439 & 0.393842491594286 \tabularnewline
15 & 141 & 136.885429065552 & 9.82660252813271 & 4.11457093444836 & 0.0859104667516074 \tabularnewline
16 & 135 & 136.623510514004 & 2.70264247456078 & -1.62351051400396 & -0.570082862016424 \tabularnewline
17 & 125 & 132.26578254598 & -2.3064438805152 & -7.26578254597955 & -0.394341927591658 \tabularnewline
18 & 149 & 144.775317989059 & 8.12592960048116 & 4.2246820109414 & 0.820765499532419 \tabularnewline
19 & 170 & 165.123434643508 & 16.734409839162 & 4.87656535649169 & 0.678999374537504 \tabularnewline
20 & 170 & 172.074060152518 & 9.8336802268846 & -2.07406015251791 & -0.543950566398601 \tabularnewline
21 & 158 & 162.374910366543 & -3.94679540271878 & -4.37491036654335 & -1.08607975752017 \tabularnewline
22 & 133 & 137.890543692836 & -18.4354258565791 & -4.89054369283645 & -1.14202127902442 \tabularnewline
23 & 114 & 118.554402323149 & -19.0706500950083 & -4.55440232314876 & -0.0500667859326556 \tabularnewline
24 & 140 & 126.410420293942 & -0.0991671941820869 & 13.5895797060581 & 1.49570940092124 \tabularnewline
25 & 145 & 144.556713579643 & 12.756571600097 & 0.443286420357029 & 1.01622753913443 \tabularnewline
26 & 150 & 153.059876069109 & 9.75587656104946 & -3.05987606910869 & -0.236842074457532 \tabularnewline
27 & 178 & 168.054580499023 & 13.412246010602 & 9.94541950097671 & 0.287576582038791 \tabularnewline
28 & 163 & 166.179349052538 & 2.7649581275039 & -3.17934905253831 & -0.843936935620426 \tabularnewline
29 & 172 & 180.701907584057 & 10.9918316369533 & -8.70190758405669 & 0.649400425742288 \tabularnewline
30 & 178 & 182.663271319358 & 4.6935147415959 & -4.66327131935787 & -0.495508878745891 \tabularnewline
31 & 199 & 191.57278141959 & 7.62913307540138 & 7.42721858041014 & 0.231380018841154 \tabularnewline
32 & 199 & 196.307186195858 & 5.61137205024572 & 2.69281380414224 & -0.159076903408224 \tabularnewline
33 & 184 & 184.834370093571 & -6.30429066555181 & -0.834370093570528 & -0.939119855795826 \tabularnewline
34 & 162 & 167.362943995208 & -14.0929320047736 & -5.36294399520783 & -0.613904700032994 \tabularnewline
35 & 146 & 156.883810085996 & -11.5736790674629 & -10.8838100859959 & 0.198561325639064 \tabularnewline
36 & 166 & 155.255957151512 & -4.64475458371409 & 10.744042848488 & 0.546454103398629 \tabularnewline
37 & 171 & 165.813389342882 & 5.95357048464536 & 5.18661065711835 & 0.836837132976558 \tabularnewline
38 & 180 & 181.919670426394 & 13.0291186308284 & -1.91967042639377 & 0.557592856762758 \tabularnewline
39 & 193 & 182.2668196931 & 4.23629440990933 & 10.7331803068998 & -0.692294781261979 \tabularnewline
40 & 181 & 187.090472914889 & 4.64303253356208 & -6.09047291488934 & 0.0321419756069182 \tabularnewline
41 & 183 & 190.410474051114 & 3.72421790724361 & -7.41047405111367 & -0.0725304779171351 \tabularnewline
42 & 218 & 218.899635162814 & 20.9062887208813 & -0.899635162813856 & 1.35283018921955 \tabularnewline
43 & 230 & 227.041135861924 & 12.0647608083739 & 2.95886413807611 & -0.696554742432787 \tabularnewline
44 & 242 & 234.34161138825 & 8.76358143933428 & 7.65838861174972 & -0.260227676805031 \tabularnewline
45 & 209 & 213.332056274183 & -11.8793694296199 & -4.33205627418256 & -1.62704133492129 \tabularnewline
46 & 191 & 196.521087801742 & -15.2988629756126 & -5.52108780174161 & -0.269515363128452 \tabularnewline
47 & 172 & 184.659553690482 & -12.9163867653801 & -12.659553690482 & 0.187794396779592 \tabularnewline
48 & 194 & 184.923152430883 & -3.78282979297115 & 9.0768475691166 & 0.720342307591761 \tabularnewline
49 & 196 & 191.218741127676 & 3.20563175951997 & 4.78125887232355 & 0.551346831741857 \tabularnewline
50 & 196 & 193.579365259038 & 2.62011472149645 & 2.42063474096171 & -0.0461303970581764 \tabularnewline
51 & 236 & 218.307132023989 & 17.8926385561525 & 17.692867976011 & 1.20301536113992 \tabularnewline
52 & 235 & 241.22949540066 & 21.3648406886763 & -6.22949540065956 & 0.274070218067409 \tabularnewline
53 & 229 & 249.142330681635 & 12.0615504044849 & -20.1423306816346 & -0.734159647320932 \tabularnewline
54 & 243 & 245.706059927001 & 1.34448644009747 & -2.70605992700094 & -0.844275931148752 \tabularnewline
55 & 264 & 257.065261039543 & 8.26125951158393 & 6.9347389604571 & 0.544865112870836 \tabularnewline
56 & 272 & 257.423242730412 & 2.80342253122373 & 14.5767572695879 & -0.43015892390721 \tabularnewline
57 & 237 & 242.918319258182 & -9.15456064971263 & -5.91831925818191 & -0.942527595661459 \tabularnewline
58 & 211 & 219.717621625822 & -18.8597752100944 & -8.71762162582235 & -0.764957959581674 \tabularnewline
59 & 180 & 196.554402039715 & -21.8326820643722 & -16.5544020397148 & -0.234354717964244 \tabularnewline
60 & 201 & 189.55240002195 & -11.5865155533101 & 11.4475999780499 & 0.808018098314225 \tabularnewline
61 & 204 & 194.894775565388 & 0.113969615200697 & 9.10522443461157 & 0.922657384428048 \tabularnewline
62 & 188 & 193.968010150852 & -0.604799912117812 & -5.96801015085155 & -0.0566275735662766 \tabularnewline
63 & 235 & 213.769823202612 & 13.4610167486032 & 21.230176797388 & 1.10820943958349 \tabularnewline
64 & 227 & 229.318245040869 & 14.899185509987 & -2.31824504086853 & 0.113458600990099 \tabularnewline
65 & 234 & 249.227766383209 & 18.3554252901921 & -15.2277663832088 & 0.272673321881451 \tabularnewline
66 & 264 & 270.882710863884 & 20.6319762095977 & -6.88271086388403 & 0.179400007995152 \tabularnewline
67 & 302 & 293.373611753484 & 21.9134539466964 & 8.62638824651577 & 0.100953005732385 \tabularnewline
68 & 293 & 281.873202730244 & -1.11232821344248 & 11.1267972697561 & -1.8145502678856 \tabularnewline
69 & 259 & 262.838544116705 & -13.4650232241664 & -3.83854411670498 & -0.973630087449214 \tabularnewline
70 & 229 & 237.991720930741 & -21.3106154779756 & -8.99172093074134 & -0.618420447816356 \tabularnewline
71 & 203 & 221.812544436748 & -17.7735208045157 & -18.812544436748 & 0.278850456827907 \tabularnewline
72 & 229 & 217.879015788159 & -8.23165772921822 & 11.120984211841 & 0.752399959898769 \tabularnewline
73 & 242 & 227.484977467218 & 4.06915928669172 & 14.5150225327817 & 0.969739544912286 \tabularnewline
74 & 233 & 242.25076010828 & 11.4403317596786 & -9.25076010828026 & 0.58074584071076 \tabularnewline
75 & 267 & 248.062639741647 & 7.56707663835997 & 18.9373602583535 & -0.305200329098015 \tabularnewline
76 & 269 & 270.031042669195 & 17.4745675341887 & -1.03104266919526 & 0.781397709791298 \tabularnewline
77 & 270 & 289.244359284996 & 18.6718156799502 & -19.2443592849958 & 0.0944370993586474 \tabularnewline
78 & 315 & 320.691007381466 & 27.4708742961284 & -5.69100738146641 & 0.693514204827846 \tabularnewline
79 & 364 & 346.458230899415 & 26.2981469282606 & 17.5417691005849 & -0.0923937609037124 \tabularnewline
80 & 347 & 338.39955285543 & 2.65973893699369 & 8.60044714456973 & -1.86269968219959 \tabularnewline
81 & 312 & 316.241246632445 & -14.4152506868322 & -4.24124663244464 & -1.34581034369973 \tabularnewline
82 & 274 & 286.808838871045 & -24.7480933065974 & -12.8088388710448 & -0.814522126106674 \tabularnewline
83 & 237 & 259.835954062096 & -26.2790736812592 & -22.8359540620962 & -0.120702775949619 \tabularnewline
84 & 278 & 264.010296413837 & -5.31729801434886 & 13.9897035861626 & 1.65275188387347 \tabularnewline
85 & 284 & 269.668371511482 & 2.23809332506789 & 14.3316284885184 & 0.595542863951897 \tabularnewline
86 & 277 & 281.221902038509 & 8.64661735469492 & -4.22190203850894 & 0.504919188762609 \tabularnewline
87 & 317 & 299.73371648138 & 15.4262942302418 & 17.2662835186203 & 0.534254380124766 \tabularnewline
88 & 313 & 316.16495270753 & 16.1167838351696 & -3.16495270753041 & 0.0544499610015525 \tabularnewline
89 & 318 & 341.787807511704 & 22.6527974427061 & -23.7878075117042 & 0.515484762668069 \tabularnewline
90 & 374 & 378.081218559608 & 32.0346741376012 & -4.08121855960811 & 0.739517347738673 \tabularnewline
91 & 413 & 390.981708454516 & 18.8801434231424 & 22.0182915454843 & -1.0364664059051 \tabularnewline
92 & 405 & 391.716959411614 & 6.41231288084813 & 13.2830405883859 & -0.982429961873201 \tabularnewline
93 & 355 & 361.647517720765 & -18.6508146892272 & -6.64751772076515 & -1.97537635871987 \tabularnewline
94 & 306 & 321.631712042152 & -33.3295988574643 & -15.6317120421517 & -1.15715376903353 \tabularnewline
95 & 271 & 299.208981707365 & -25.8346023907585 & -28.2089817073648 & 0.590925951624364 \tabularnewline
96 & 306 & 290.64764044357 & -13.961500447969 & 15.3523595564299 & 0.936088813010688 \tabularnewline
97 & 315 & 297.700264802895 & 0.48326616252178 & 17.299735197105 & 1.13849103385478 \tabularnewline
98 & 301 & 305.766995882232 & 5.69289545501063 & -4.76699588223249 & 0.410472518613986 \tabularnewline
99 & 356 & 333.32214237815 & 20.6993532893724 & 22.6778576218505 & 1.18259471303406 \tabularnewline
100 & 348 & 356.383501596068 & 22.320423211592 & -8.38350159606796 & 0.127820386265803 \tabularnewline
101 & 355 & 384.088009703586 & 26.0176013563085 & -29.0880097035859 & 0.291563732161444 \tabularnewline
102 & 422 & 420.362725230545 & 33.0633138352049 & 1.63727476945534 & 0.555397411729986 \tabularnewline
103 & 465 & 441.582411473245 & 24.930468016015 & 23.417588526755 & -0.640839883200141 \tabularnewline
104 & 467 & 445.923303172546 & 10.7993929998612 & 21.0766968274542 & -1.1134778769915 \tabularnewline
105 & 404 & 413.091335433132 & -19.1376659072242 & -9.09133543313218 & -2.35948271288976 \tabularnewline
106 & 347 & 369.497691262088 & -35.9184597133551 & -22.4976912620879 & -1.3228902128677 \tabularnewline
107 & 305 & 336.359426601366 & -34.0103331571782 & -31.3594266013657 & 0.150444180006701 \tabularnewline
108 & 336 & 321.234328622989 & -21.0453303959284 & 14.7656713770107 & 1.02212984780482 \tabularnewline
109 & 340 & 319.887574725373 & -7.52238098607766 & 20.1124252746275 & 1.06578525542172 \tabularnewline
110 & 318 & 325.785099110414 & 1.68521451513084 & -7.78509911041368 & 0.725496573538331 \tabularnewline
111 & 362 & 337.592540246567 & 8.62555362778573 & 24.4074597534327 & 0.546953694865871 \tabularnewline
112 & 348 & 357.240233063677 & 16.1821123723225 & -9.24023306367689 & 0.595791749544721 \tabularnewline
113 & 363 & 393.310811296612 & 29.8234812288097 & -30.3108112966116 & 1.07570034917776 \tabularnewline
114 & 435 & 431.33850754233 & 35.4524332079976 & 3.66149245766989 & 0.443727044160513 \tabularnewline
115 & 491 & 463.215771900698 & 33.0001119481181 & 27.7842280993017 & -0.193243447012732 \tabularnewline
116 & 505 & 474.716418675514 & 18.2605078840754 & 30.2835813244859 & -1.16143083595589 \tabularnewline
117 & 404 & 421.551173575707 & -30.6917992519578 & -17.551173575707 & -3.85812331339108 \tabularnewline
118 & 359 & 381.0457121019 & -37.4178140405408 & -22.0457121018997 & -0.530241025756103 \tabularnewline
119 & 310 & 346.097530112688 & -35.7247511120793 & -36.097530112688 & 0.133488015392727 \tabularnewline
120 & 337 & 323.990935446682 & -26.3863191614945 & 13.0090645533177 & 0.736195483278567 \tabularnewline
121 & 360 & 333.613484522858 & -1.69537032127175 & 26.3865154771423 & 1.94591938266177 \tabularnewline
122 & 342 & 348.340460569301 & 9.55953664848347 & -6.34046056930091 & 0.886832445437818 \tabularnewline
123 & 406 & 379.535573906645 & 24.3788300111163 & 26.4644260933547 & 1.16789994876742 \tabularnewline
124 & 396 & 411.735082815907 & 29.7351664157374 & -15.7350828159068 & 0.42229734336832 \tabularnewline
125 & 420 & 453.440291883078 & 37.9365978268413 & -33.4402918830777 & 0.646695219443857 \tabularnewline
126 & 472 & 475.781853112889 & 27.2483811536401 & -3.78185311288862 & -0.842552142031253 \tabularnewline
127 & 548 & 510.955894932572 & 32.6792161656501 & 37.0441050674277 & 0.427965982651617 \tabularnewline
128 & 559 & 513.663290124983 & 12.1518514542386 & 45.3367098750172 & -1.61750229648595 \tabularnewline
129 & 463 & 484.876511647302 & -15.8768915175123 & -21.876511647302 & -2.20904065954715 \tabularnewline
130 & 407 & 434.840687327804 & -39.2639975055724 & -27.840687327804 & -1.84370692817548 \tabularnewline
131 & 362 & 399.140219829521 & -36.823551151927 & -37.1402198295213 & 0.192413435082963 \tabularnewline
132 & 405 & 394.181742876809 & -14.9955798860312 & 10.818257123191 & 1.72076552880008 \tabularnewline
133 & 417 & 392.714812664306 & -5.72902794928648 & 24.2851873356944 & 0.730297475720311 \tabularnewline
134 & 391 & 400.377184982838 & 3.43918739344151 & -9.37718498283801 & 0.722427022463098 \tabularnewline
135 & 419 & 397.703336344454 & -0.743936208333153 & 21.2966636555464 & -0.329674040463495 \tabularnewline
136 & 461 & 463.863961085652 & 45.03558817925 & -2.86396108565219 & 3.60916421644799 \tabularnewline
137 & 472 & 506.973754336602 & 43.7174067779917 & -34.9737543366021 & -0.103936003450084 \tabularnewline
138 & 535 & 544.916091562085 & 39.7633943883813 & -9.91609156208539 & -0.311694512047514 \tabularnewline
139 & 622 & 578.095078508609 & 35.2560028589496 & 43.9049214913912 & -0.355205283736055 \tabularnewline
140 & 606 & 560.043255317931 & -1.21956232536351 & 45.9567446820694 & -2.87421682824557 \tabularnewline
141 & 508 & 524.076188293942 & -24.9870461521075 & -16.0761882939421 & -1.87319018376299 \tabularnewline
142 & 461 & 490.500756534984 & -30.8615124926861 & -29.5007565349837 & -0.463106532155359 \tabularnewline
143 & 390 & 441.01123096876 & -43.6064594764187 & -51.0112309687604 & -1.00484347008706 \tabularnewline
144 & 432 & 417.850761362678 & -29.6143514978258 & 14.1492386373222 & 1.10301852196438 \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368&T=1

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Structural Time Series Model[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]t[/C][C]Observed[/C][C]Level[/C][C]Slope[/C][C]Seasonal[/C][C]Stand. Residuals[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]1[/C][C]112[/C][C]112[/C][C]0[/C][C]0[/C][C]0[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]2[/C][C]118[/C][C]116.66266069169[/C][C]4.77318459628304[/C][C]1.33733930830962[/C][C]0.424228086199752[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]3[/C][C]132[/C][C]130.365394352686[/C][C]11.08629363361[/C][C]1.63460564731352[/C][C]0.529048182303492[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]4[/C][C]129[/C][C]132.255403850603[/C][C]4.19626456331728[/C][C]-3.25540385060326[/C][C]-0.555722248049461[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]5[/C][C]121[/C][C]123.494626313775[/C][C]-5.30231596474222[/C][C]-2.49462631377453[/C][C]-0.743105140735055[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]6[/C][C]135[/C][C]130.681795095893[/C][C]3.82135878884591[/C][C]4.31820490410717[/C][C]0.720130136037163[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]7[/C][C]148[/C][C]145.954146175467[/C][C]12.2106077778185[/C][C]2.04585382453337[/C][C]0.661413933726645[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]8[/C][C]148[/C][C]150.795462247814[/C][C]6.80932805948146[/C][C]-2.79546224781396[/C][C]-0.425692617357551[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]9[/C][C]136[/C][C]139.990520461711[/C][C]-6.09921661026012[/C][C]-3.99052046171122[/C][C]-1.01743382120828[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]10[/C][C]119[/C][C]120.957802644102[/C][C]-15.575852960984[/C][C]-1.95780264410201[/C][C]-0.74692092578782[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]11[/C][C]104[/C][C]103.451987938252[/C][C]-16.9899078938738[/C][C]0.548012061747831[/C][C]-0.111451576664862[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]12[/C][C]118[/C][C]111.320724907345[/C][C]1.22405968033905[/C][C]6.67927509265518[/C][C]1.43557121454608[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]13[/C][C]115[/C][C]116.084408331948[/C][C]3.81134582845608[/C][C]-1.08440833194803[/C][C]0.204507755305892[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]14[/C][C]126[/C][C]126.603292628772[/C][C]8.7319365884726[/C][C]-0.603292628772439[/C][C]0.393842491594286[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]15[/C][C]141[/C][C]136.885429065552[/C][C]9.82660252813271[/C][C]4.11457093444836[/C][C]0.0859104667516074[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]16[/C][C]135[/C][C]136.623510514004[/C][C]2.70264247456078[/C][C]-1.62351051400396[/C][C]-0.570082862016424[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]17[/C][C]125[/C][C]132.26578254598[/C][C]-2.3064438805152[/C][C]-7.26578254597955[/C][C]-0.394341927591658[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]18[/C][C]149[/C][C]144.775317989059[/C][C]8.12592960048116[/C][C]4.2246820109414[/C][C]0.820765499532419[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]19[/C][C]170[/C][C]165.123434643508[/C][C]16.734409839162[/C][C]4.87656535649169[/C][C]0.678999374537504[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]20[/C][C]170[/C][C]172.074060152518[/C][C]9.8336802268846[/C][C]-2.07406015251791[/C][C]-0.543950566398601[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]21[/C][C]158[/C][C]162.374910366543[/C][C]-3.94679540271878[/C][C]-4.37491036654335[/C][C]-1.08607975752017[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]22[/C][C]133[/C][C]137.890543692836[/C][C]-18.4354258565791[/C][C]-4.89054369283645[/C][C]-1.14202127902442[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]23[/C][C]114[/C][C]118.554402323149[/C][C]-19.0706500950083[/C][C]-4.55440232314876[/C][C]-0.0500667859326556[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]24[/C][C]140[/C][C]126.410420293942[/C][C]-0.0991671941820869[/C][C]13.5895797060581[/C][C]1.49570940092124[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]25[/C][C]145[/C][C]144.556713579643[/C][C]12.756571600097[/C][C]0.443286420357029[/C][C]1.01622753913443[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]26[/C][C]150[/C][C]153.059876069109[/C][C]9.75587656104946[/C][C]-3.05987606910869[/C][C]-0.236842074457532[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]27[/C][C]178[/C][C]168.054580499023[/C][C]13.412246010602[/C][C]9.94541950097671[/C][C]0.287576582038791[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]28[/C][C]163[/C][C]166.179349052538[/C][C]2.7649581275039[/C][C]-3.17934905253831[/C][C]-0.843936935620426[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]29[/C][C]172[/C][C]180.701907584057[/C][C]10.9918316369533[/C][C]-8.70190758405669[/C][C]0.649400425742288[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]30[/C][C]178[/C][C]182.663271319358[/C][C]4.6935147415959[/C][C]-4.66327131935787[/C][C]-0.495508878745891[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]31[/C][C]199[/C][C]191.57278141959[/C][C]7.62913307540138[/C][C]7.42721858041014[/C][C]0.231380018841154[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]32[/C][C]199[/C][C]196.307186195858[/C][C]5.61137205024572[/C][C]2.69281380414224[/C][C]-0.159076903408224[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]33[/C][C]184[/C][C]184.834370093571[/C][C]-6.30429066555181[/C][C]-0.834370093570528[/C][C]-0.939119855795826[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]34[/C][C]162[/C][C]167.362943995208[/C][C]-14.0929320047736[/C][C]-5.36294399520783[/C][C]-0.613904700032994[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]35[/C][C]146[/C][C]156.883810085996[/C][C]-11.5736790674629[/C][C]-10.8838100859959[/C][C]0.198561325639064[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]36[/C][C]166[/C][C]155.255957151512[/C][C]-4.64475458371409[/C][C]10.744042848488[/C][C]0.546454103398629[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]37[/C][C]171[/C][C]165.813389342882[/C][C]5.95357048464536[/C][C]5.18661065711835[/C][C]0.836837132976558[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]38[/C][C]180[/C][C]181.919670426394[/C][C]13.0291186308284[/C][C]-1.91967042639377[/C][C]0.557592856762758[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]39[/C][C]193[/C][C]182.2668196931[/C][C]4.23629440990933[/C][C]10.7331803068998[/C][C]-0.692294781261979[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]40[/C][C]181[/C][C]187.090472914889[/C][C]4.64303253356208[/C][C]-6.09047291488934[/C][C]0.0321419756069182[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]41[/C][C]183[/C][C]190.410474051114[/C][C]3.72421790724361[/C][C]-7.41047405111367[/C][C]-0.0725304779171351[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]42[/C][C]218[/C][C]218.899635162814[/C][C]20.9062887208813[/C][C]-0.899635162813856[/C][C]1.35283018921955[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]43[/C][C]230[/C][C]227.041135861924[/C][C]12.0647608083739[/C][C]2.95886413807611[/C][C]-0.696554742432787[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]44[/C][C]242[/C][C]234.34161138825[/C][C]8.76358143933428[/C][C]7.65838861174972[/C][C]-0.260227676805031[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]45[/C][C]209[/C][C]213.332056274183[/C][C]-11.8793694296199[/C][C]-4.33205627418256[/C][C]-1.62704133492129[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]46[/C][C]191[/C][C]196.521087801742[/C][C]-15.2988629756126[/C][C]-5.52108780174161[/C][C]-0.269515363128452[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]47[/C][C]172[/C][C]184.659553690482[/C][C]-12.9163867653801[/C][C]-12.659553690482[/C][C]0.187794396779592[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]48[/C][C]194[/C][C]184.923152430883[/C][C]-3.78282979297115[/C][C]9.0768475691166[/C][C]0.720342307591761[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]49[/C][C]196[/C][C]191.218741127676[/C][C]3.20563175951997[/C][C]4.78125887232355[/C][C]0.551346831741857[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]50[/C][C]196[/C][C]193.579365259038[/C][C]2.62011472149645[/C][C]2.42063474096171[/C][C]-0.0461303970581764[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]51[/C][C]236[/C][C]218.307132023989[/C][C]17.8926385561525[/C][C]17.692867976011[/C][C]1.20301536113992[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]52[/C][C]235[/C][C]241.22949540066[/C][C]21.3648406886763[/C][C]-6.22949540065956[/C][C]0.274070218067409[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]53[/C][C]229[/C][C]249.142330681635[/C][C]12.0615504044849[/C][C]-20.1423306816346[/C][C]-0.734159647320932[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]54[/C][C]243[/C][C]245.706059927001[/C][C]1.34448644009747[/C][C]-2.70605992700094[/C][C]-0.844275931148752[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]55[/C][C]264[/C][C]257.065261039543[/C][C]8.26125951158393[/C][C]6.9347389604571[/C][C]0.544865112870836[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]56[/C][C]272[/C][C]257.423242730412[/C][C]2.80342253122373[/C][C]14.5767572695879[/C][C]-0.43015892390721[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]57[/C][C]237[/C][C]242.918319258182[/C][C]-9.15456064971263[/C][C]-5.91831925818191[/C][C]-0.942527595661459[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]58[/C][C]211[/C][C]219.717621625822[/C][C]-18.8597752100944[/C][C]-8.71762162582235[/C][C]-0.764957959581674[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]59[/C][C]180[/C][C]196.554402039715[/C][C]-21.8326820643722[/C][C]-16.5544020397148[/C][C]-0.234354717964244[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]60[/C][C]201[/C][C]189.55240002195[/C][C]-11.5865155533101[/C][C]11.4475999780499[/C][C]0.808018098314225[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]61[/C][C]204[/C][C]194.894775565388[/C][C]0.113969615200697[/C][C]9.10522443461157[/C][C]0.922657384428048[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]62[/C][C]188[/C][C]193.968010150852[/C][C]-0.604799912117812[/C][C]-5.96801015085155[/C][C]-0.0566275735662766[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]63[/C][C]235[/C][C]213.769823202612[/C][C]13.4610167486032[/C][C]21.230176797388[/C][C]1.10820943958349[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]64[/C][C]227[/C][C]229.318245040869[/C][C]14.899185509987[/C][C]-2.31824504086853[/C][C]0.113458600990099[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]65[/C][C]234[/C][C]249.227766383209[/C][C]18.3554252901921[/C][C]-15.2277663832088[/C][C]0.272673321881451[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]66[/C][C]264[/C][C]270.882710863884[/C][C]20.6319762095977[/C][C]-6.88271086388403[/C][C]0.179400007995152[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]67[/C][C]302[/C][C]293.373611753484[/C][C]21.9134539466964[/C][C]8.62638824651577[/C][C]0.100953005732385[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]68[/C][C]293[/C][C]281.873202730244[/C][C]-1.11232821344248[/C][C]11.1267972697561[/C][C]-1.8145502678856[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]69[/C][C]259[/C][C]262.838544116705[/C][C]-13.4650232241664[/C][C]-3.83854411670498[/C][C]-0.973630087449214[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]70[/C][C]229[/C][C]237.991720930741[/C][C]-21.3106154779756[/C][C]-8.99172093074134[/C][C]-0.618420447816356[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]71[/C][C]203[/C][C]221.812544436748[/C][C]-17.7735208045157[/C][C]-18.812544436748[/C][C]0.278850456827907[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]72[/C][C]229[/C][C]217.879015788159[/C][C]-8.23165772921822[/C][C]11.120984211841[/C][C]0.752399959898769[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]73[/C][C]242[/C][C]227.484977467218[/C][C]4.06915928669172[/C][C]14.5150225327817[/C][C]0.969739544912286[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]74[/C][C]233[/C][C]242.25076010828[/C][C]11.4403317596786[/C][C]-9.25076010828026[/C][C]0.58074584071076[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]75[/C][C]267[/C][C]248.062639741647[/C][C]7.56707663835997[/C][C]18.9373602583535[/C][C]-0.305200329098015[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]76[/C][C]269[/C][C]270.031042669195[/C][C]17.4745675341887[/C][C]-1.03104266919526[/C][C]0.781397709791298[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]77[/C][C]270[/C][C]289.244359284996[/C][C]18.6718156799502[/C][C]-19.2443592849958[/C][C]0.0944370993586474[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]78[/C][C]315[/C][C]320.691007381466[/C][C]27.4708742961284[/C][C]-5.69100738146641[/C][C]0.693514204827846[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]79[/C][C]364[/C][C]346.458230899415[/C][C]26.2981469282606[/C][C]17.5417691005849[/C][C]-0.0923937609037124[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]80[/C][C]347[/C][C]338.39955285543[/C][C]2.65973893699369[/C][C]8.60044714456973[/C][C]-1.86269968219959[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]81[/C][C]312[/C][C]316.241246632445[/C][C]-14.4152506868322[/C][C]-4.24124663244464[/C][C]-1.34581034369973[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]82[/C][C]274[/C][C]286.808838871045[/C][C]-24.7480933065974[/C][C]-12.8088388710448[/C][C]-0.814522126106674[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]83[/C][C]237[/C][C]259.835954062096[/C][C]-26.2790736812592[/C][C]-22.8359540620962[/C][C]-0.120702775949619[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]84[/C][C]278[/C][C]264.010296413837[/C][C]-5.31729801434886[/C][C]13.9897035861626[/C][C]1.65275188387347[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]85[/C][C]284[/C][C]269.668371511482[/C][C]2.23809332506789[/C][C]14.3316284885184[/C][C]0.595542863951897[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]86[/C][C]277[/C][C]281.221902038509[/C][C]8.64661735469492[/C][C]-4.22190203850894[/C][C]0.504919188762609[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]87[/C][C]317[/C][C]299.73371648138[/C][C]15.4262942302418[/C][C]17.2662835186203[/C][C]0.534254380124766[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]88[/C][C]313[/C][C]316.16495270753[/C][C]16.1167838351696[/C][C]-3.16495270753041[/C][C]0.0544499610015525[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]89[/C][C]318[/C][C]341.787807511704[/C][C]22.6527974427061[/C][C]-23.7878075117042[/C][C]0.515484762668069[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]90[/C][C]374[/C][C]378.081218559608[/C][C]32.0346741376012[/C][C]-4.08121855960811[/C][C]0.739517347738673[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]91[/C][C]413[/C][C]390.981708454516[/C][C]18.8801434231424[/C][C]22.0182915454843[/C][C]-1.0364664059051[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]92[/C][C]405[/C][C]391.716959411614[/C][C]6.41231288084813[/C][C]13.2830405883859[/C][C]-0.982429961873201[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]93[/C][C]355[/C][C]361.647517720765[/C][C]-18.6508146892272[/C][C]-6.64751772076515[/C][C]-1.97537635871987[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]94[/C][C]306[/C][C]321.631712042152[/C][C]-33.3295988574643[/C][C]-15.6317120421517[/C][C]-1.15715376903353[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]95[/C][C]271[/C][C]299.208981707365[/C][C]-25.8346023907585[/C][C]-28.2089817073648[/C][C]0.590925951624364[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]96[/C][C]306[/C][C]290.64764044357[/C][C]-13.961500447969[/C][C]15.3523595564299[/C][C]0.936088813010688[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]97[/C][C]315[/C][C]297.700264802895[/C][C]0.48326616252178[/C][C]17.299735197105[/C][C]1.13849103385478[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]98[/C][C]301[/C][C]305.766995882232[/C][C]5.69289545501063[/C][C]-4.76699588223249[/C][C]0.410472518613986[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]99[/C][C]356[/C][C]333.32214237815[/C][C]20.6993532893724[/C][C]22.6778576218505[/C][C]1.18259471303406[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]100[/C][C]348[/C][C]356.383501596068[/C][C]22.320423211592[/C][C]-8.38350159606796[/C][C]0.127820386265803[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]101[/C][C]355[/C][C]384.088009703586[/C][C]26.0176013563085[/C][C]-29.0880097035859[/C][C]0.291563732161444[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]102[/C][C]422[/C][C]420.362725230545[/C][C]33.0633138352049[/C][C]1.63727476945534[/C][C]0.555397411729986[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]103[/C][C]465[/C][C]441.582411473245[/C][C]24.930468016015[/C][C]23.417588526755[/C][C]-0.640839883200141[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]104[/C][C]467[/C][C]445.923303172546[/C][C]10.7993929998612[/C][C]21.0766968274542[/C][C]-1.1134778769915[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]105[/C][C]404[/C][C]413.091335433132[/C][C]-19.1376659072242[/C][C]-9.09133543313218[/C][C]-2.35948271288976[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]106[/C][C]347[/C][C]369.497691262088[/C][C]-35.9184597133551[/C][C]-22.4976912620879[/C][C]-1.3228902128677[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]107[/C][C]305[/C][C]336.359426601366[/C][C]-34.0103331571782[/C][C]-31.3594266013657[/C][C]0.150444180006701[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]108[/C][C]336[/C][C]321.234328622989[/C][C]-21.0453303959284[/C][C]14.7656713770107[/C][C]1.02212984780482[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]109[/C][C]340[/C][C]319.887574725373[/C][C]-7.52238098607766[/C][C]20.1124252746275[/C][C]1.06578525542172[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]110[/C][C]318[/C][C]325.785099110414[/C][C]1.68521451513084[/C][C]-7.78509911041368[/C][C]0.725496573538331[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]111[/C][C]362[/C][C]337.592540246567[/C][C]8.62555362778573[/C][C]24.4074597534327[/C][C]0.546953694865871[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]112[/C][C]348[/C][C]357.240233063677[/C][C]16.1821123723225[/C][C]-9.24023306367689[/C][C]0.595791749544721[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]113[/C][C]363[/C][C]393.310811296612[/C][C]29.8234812288097[/C][C]-30.3108112966116[/C][C]1.07570034917776[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]114[/C][C]435[/C][C]431.33850754233[/C][C]35.4524332079976[/C][C]3.66149245766989[/C][C]0.443727044160513[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]115[/C][C]491[/C][C]463.215771900698[/C][C]33.0001119481181[/C][C]27.7842280993017[/C][C]-0.193243447012732[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]116[/C][C]505[/C][C]474.716418675514[/C][C]18.2605078840754[/C][C]30.2835813244859[/C][C]-1.16143083595589[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]117[/C][C]404[/C][C]421.551173575707[/C][C]-30.6917992519578[/C][C]-17.551173575707[/C][C]-3.85812331339108[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]118[/C][C]359[/C][C]381.0457121019[/C][C]-37.4178140405408[/C][C]-22.0457121018997[/C][C]-0.530241025756103[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]119[/C][C]310[/C][C]346.097530112688[/C][C]-35.7247511120793[/C][C]-36.097530112688[/C][C]0.133488015392727[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]120[/C][C]337[/C][C]323.990935446682[/C][C]-26.3863191614945[/C][C]13.0090645533177[/C][C]0.736195483278567[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]121[/C][C]360[/C][C]333.613484522858[/C][C]-1.69537032127175[/C][C]26.3865154771423[/C][C]1.94591938266177[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]122[/C][C]342[/C][C]348.340460569301[/C][C]9.55953664848347[/C][C]-6.34046056930091[/C][C]0.886832445437818[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]123[/C][C]406[/C][C]379.535573906645[/C][C]24.3788300111163[/C][C]26.4644260933547[/C][C]1.16789994876742[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]124[/C][C]396[/C][C]411.735082815907[/C][C]29.7351664157374[/C][C]-15.7350828159068[/C][C]0.42229734336832[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]125[/C][C]420[/C][C]453.440291883078[/C][C]37.9365978268413[/C][C]-33.4402918830777[/C][C]0.646695219443857[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]126[/C][C]472[/C][C]475.781853112889[/C][C]27.2483811536401[/C][C]-3.78185311288862[/C][C]-0.842552142031253[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]127[/C][C]548[/C][C]510.955894932572[/C][C]32.6792161656501[/C][C]37.0441050674277[/C][C]0.427965982651617[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]128[/C][C]559[/C][C]513.663290124983[/C][C]12.1518514542386[/C][C]45.3367098750172[/C][C]-1.61750229648595[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]129[/C][C]463[/C][C]484.876511647302[/C][C]-15.8768915175123[/C][C]-21.876511647302[/C][C]-2.20904065954715[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]130[/C][C]407[/C][C]434.840687327804[/C][C]-39.2639975055724[/C][C]-27.840687327804[/C][C]-1.84370692817548[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]131[/C][C]362[/C][C]399.140219829521[/C][C]-36.823551151927[/C][C]-37.1402198295213[/C][C]0.192413435082963[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]132[/C][C]405[/C][C]394.181742876809[/C][C]-14.9955798860312[/C][C]10.818257123191[/C][C]1.72076552880008[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]133[/C][C]417[/C][C]392.714812664306[/C][C]-5.72902794928648[/C][C]24.2851873356944[/C][C]0.730297475720311[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]134[/C][C]391[/C][C]400.377184982838[/C][C]3.43918739344151[/C][C]-9.37718498283801[/C][C]0.722427022463098[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]135[/C][C]419[/C][C]397.703336344454[/C][C]-0.743936208333153[/C][C]21.2966636555464[/C][C]-0.329674040463495[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]136[/C][C]461[/C][C]463.863961085652[/C][C]45.03558817925[/C][C]-2.86396108565219[/C][C]3.60916421644799[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]137[/C][C]472[/C][C]506.973754336602[/C][C]43.7174067779917[/C][C]-34.9737543366021[/C][C]-0.103936003450084[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]138[/C][C]535[/C][C]544.916091562085[/C][C]39.7633943883813[/C][C]-9.91609156208539[/C][C]-0.311694512047514[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]139[/C][C]622[/C][C]578.095078508609[/C][C]35.2560028589496[/C][C]43.9049214913912[/C][C]-0.355205283736055[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]140[/C][C]606[/C][C]560.043255317931[/C][C]-1.21956232536351[/C][C]45.9567446820694[/C][C]-2.87421682824557[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]141[/C][C]508[/C][C]524.076188293942[/C][C]-24.9870461521075[/C][C]-16.0761882939421[/C][C]-1.87319018376299[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]142[/C][C]461[/C][C]490.500756534984[/C][C]-30.8615124926861[/C][C]-29.5007565349837[/C][C]-0.463106532155359[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]143[/C][C]390[/C][C]441.01123096876[/C][C]-43.6064594764187[/C][C]-51.0112309687604[/C][C]-1.00484347008706[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]144[/C][C]432[/C][C]417.850761362678[/C][C]-29.6143514978258[/C][C]14.1492386373222[/C][C]1.10301852196438[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368&T=1

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=274368&T=1

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Structural Time Series Model
tObservedLevelSlopeSeasonalStand. Residuals
1112112000
2118116.662660691694.773184596283041.337339308309620.424228086199752
3132130.36539435268611.086293633611.634605647313520.529048182303492
4129132.2554038506034.19626456331728-3.25540385060326-0.555722248049461
5121123.494626313775-5.30231596474222-2.49462631377453-0.743105140735055
6135130.6817950958933.821358788845914.318204904107170.720130136037163
7148145.95414617546712.21060777781852.045853824533370.661413933726645
8148150.7954622478146.80932805948146-2.79546224781396-0.425692617357551
9136139.990520461711-6.09921661026012-3.99052046171122-1.01743382120828
10119120.957802644102-15.575852960984-1.95780264410201-0.74692092578782
11104103.451987938252-16.98990789387380.548012061747831-0.111451576664862
12118111.3207249073451.224059680339056.679275092655181.43557121454608
13115116.0844083319483.81134582845608-1.084408331948030.204507755305892
14126126.6032926287728.7319365884726-0.6032926287724390.393842491594286
15141136.8854290655529.826602528132714.114570934448360.0859104667516074
16135136.6235105140042.70264247456078-1.62351051400396-0.570082862016424
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Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ;
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ;
R code (references can be found in the software module):
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
nx <- length(x)
x <- ts(x,frequency=par1)
m <- StructTS(x,type='BSM')
m$coef
m$fitted
m$resid
mylevel <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'level'])
myslope <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'slope'])
myseas <- as.numeric(m$fitted[,'sea'])
myresid <- as.numeric(m$resid)
myfit <- mylevel+myseas
mylagmax <- nx/2
bitmap(file='test2.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(x),lag.max = mylagmax,main='Observed')
acf(mylevel,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Level')
acf(myseas,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Seasonal')
acf(myresid,na.action=na.pass,lag.max = mylagmax,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
spectrum(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')
spectrum(mylevel,main='Level')
spectrum(myseas,main='Seasonal')
spectrum(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test4.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
cpgram(as.numeric(x),main='Observed')
cpgram(mylevel,main='Level')
cpgram(myseas,main='Seasonal')
cpgram(myresid,main='Standardized Residals')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test1.png')
plot(as.numeric(m$resid),main='Standardized Residuals',ylab='Residuals',xlab='time',type='b')
grid()
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test5.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
hist(m$resid,main='Residual Histogram')
plot(density(m$resid),main='Residual Kernel Density')
qqnorm(m$resid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(m$resid)
plot(m$resid^2, myfit^2,main='Sq.Resid vs. Sq.Fit',xlab='Squared residuals',ylab='Squared Fit')
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Structural Time Series Model',6,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Level',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Slope',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Seasonal',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Stand. Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nx) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i])
a<-table.element(a,mylevel[i])
a<-table.element(a,myslope[i])
a<-table.element(a,myseas[i])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')