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Author's title

Author*Unverified author*
R Software Modulerwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp
Title produced by softwareExponential Smoothing
Date of computationFri, 23 Dec 2016 18:30:15 +0000
Cite this page as followsStatistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?v=date/2016/Dec/23/t1482517864v0p95rppkuoa56w.htm/, Retrieved Tue, 07 May 2024 16:13:25 +0200
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=, Retrieved Tue, 07 May 2024 16:13:25 +0200
QR Codes:

Original text written by user:
IsPrivate?No (this computation is public)
User-defined keywords
Estimated Impact0
Dataseries X:
90,89
91,1
91,35
91,52
91,45
91,88
91,9
91,92
92
92
92,2
92,34
92,29
92,37
92,58
92,73
92,78
92,82
92,82
92,99
93,18
93,88
94,29
94,04
93,6
95,99
98,1
98,7
99,31
99,58
99,68
102,38
102,69
103,01
103,35
103,61
102,59
102,75
102,88
102,85
103,16
103,17
103,04
103,09
103,12
103,68
103,75
103,81
104,23
104,58
104,76
104,83
104,88
105,7
105,34
105,57
105,66
105,7
105,76
105,76




Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time2 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ jenkins.wessa.net

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Summary of computational transaction \tabularnewline
Raw Input & view raw input (R code)  \tabularnewline
Raw Output & view raw output of R engine  \tabularnewline
Computing time & 2 seconds \tabularnewline
R Server & 'Gwilym Jenkins' @ jenkins.wessa.net \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=0

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Summary of computational transaction[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Input[/C][C]view raw input (R code) [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Output[/C][C]view raw output of R engine [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Computing time[/C][C]2 seconds[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]R Server[/C][C]'Gwilym Jenkins' @ jenkins.wessa.net[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=0

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=0

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time2 seconds
R Server'Gwilym Jenkins' @ jenkins.wessa.net







Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha1
beta0
gammaFALSE

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing \tabularnewline
Parameter & Value \tabularnewline
alpha & 1 \tabularnewline
beta & 0 \tabularnewline
gamma & FALSE \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=1

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Parameter[/C][C]Value[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]alpha[/C][C]1[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]beta[/C][C]0[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]gamma[/C][C]FALSE[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=1

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=1

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing
ParameterValue
alpha1
beta0
gammaFALSE







Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
391.3591.310.0400000000000063
491.5291.56-0.039999999999992
591.4591.73-0.279999999999987
691.8891.660.219999999999999
791.992.09-0.189999999999984
891.9292.11-0.189999999999998
99292.13-0.129999999999995
109292.21-0.209999999999994
1192.292.21-0.00999999999999091
1292.3492.41-0.0699999999999932
1392.2992.55-0.259999999999991
1492.3792.5-0.129999999999995
1592.5892.580
1692.7392.79-0.0599999999999881
1792.7892.94-0.159999999999997
1892.8292.99-0.170000000000002
1992.8293.03-0.209999999999994
2092.9993.03-0.039999999999992
2193.1893.2-0.0199999999999818
2293.8893.390.489999999999995
2394.2994.090.200000000000017
2494.0494.5-0.459999999999994
2593.694.25-0.650000000000006
2695.9993.812.18000000000001
2798.196.21.90000000000001
2898.798.310.390000000000015
2999.3198.910.400000000000006
3099.5899.520.0600000000000023
3199.6899.79-0.109999999999985
32102.3899.892.48999999999999
33102.69102.590.100000000000009
34103.01102.90.110000000000014
35103.35103.220.129999999999995
36103.61103.560.0500000000000114
37102.59103.82-1.22999999999999
38102.75102.8-0.0499999999999972
39102.88102.96-0.0799999999999983
40102.85103.09-0.239999999999995
41103.16103.060.100000000000009
42103.17103.37-0.199999999999989
43103.04103.38-0.339999999999989
44103.09103.25-0.159999999999997
45103.12103.3-0.179999999999993
46103.68103.330.350000000000009
47103.75103.89-0.140000000000001
48103.81103.96-0.149999999999991
49104.23104.020.210000000000008
50104.58104.440.140000000000001
51104.76104.79-0.0299999999999869
52104.83104.97-0.140000000000001
53104.88105.04-0.159999999999997
54105.7105.090.610000000000014
55105.34105.91-0.569999999999993
56105.57105.550.019999999999996
57105.66105.78-0.11999999999999
58105.7105.87-0.169999999999987
59105.76105.91-0.149999999999991
60105.76105.97-0.209999999999994

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing \tabularnewline
t & Observed & Fitted & Residuals \tabularnewline
3 & 91.35 & 91.31 & 0.0400000000000063 \tabularnewline
4 & 91.52 & 91.56 & -0.039999999999992 \tabularnewline
5 & 91.45 & 91.73 & -0.279999999999987 \tabularnewline
6 & 91.88 & 91.66 & 0.219999999999999 \tabularnewline
7 & 91.9 & 92.09 & -0.189999999999984 \tabularnewline
8 & 91.92 & 92.11 & -0.189999999999998 \tabularnewline
9 & 92 & 92.13 & -0.129999999999995 \tabularnewline
10 & 92 & 92.21 & -0.209999999999994 \tabularnewline
11 & 92.2 & 92.21 & -0.00999999999999091 \tabularnewline
12 & 92.34 & 92.41 & -0.0699999999999932 \tabularnewline
13 & 92.29 & 92.55 & -0.259999999999991 \tabularnewline
14 & 92.37 & 92.5 & -0.129999999999995 \tabularnewline
15 & 92.58 & 92.58 & 0 \tabularnewline
16 & 92.73 & 92.79 & -0.0599999999999881 \tabularnewline
17 & 92.78 & 92.94 & -0.159999999999997 \tabularnewline
18 & 92.82 & 92.99 & -0.170000000000002 \tabularnewline
19 & 92.82 & 93.03 & -0.209999999999994 \tabularnewline
20 & 92.99 & 93.03 & -0.039999999999992 \tabularnewline
21 & 93.18 & 93.2 & -0.0199999999999818 \tabularnewline
22 & 93.88 & 93.39 & 0.489999999999995 \tabularnewline
23 & 94.29 & 94.09 & 0.200000000000017 \tabularnewline
24 & 94.04 & 94.5 & -0.459999999999994 \tabularnewline
25 & 93.6 & 94.25 & -0.650000000000006 \tabularnewline
26 & 95.99 & 93.81 & 2.18000000000001 \tabularnewline
27 & 98.1 & 96.2 & 1.90000000000001 \tabularnewline
28 & 98.7 & 98.31 & 0.390000000000015 \tabularnewline
29 & 99.31 & 98.91 & 0.400000000000006 \tabularnewline
30 & 99.58 & 99.52 & 0.0600000000000023 \tabularnewline
31 & 99.68 & 99.79 & -0.109999999999985 \tabularnewline
32 & 102.38 & 99.89 & 2.48999999999999 \tabularnewline
33 & 102.69 & 102.59 & 0.100000000000009 \tabularnewline
34 & 103.01 & 102.9 & 0.110000000000014 \tabularnewline
35 & 103.35 & 103.22 & 0.129999999999995 \tabularnewline
36 & 103.61 & 103.56 & 0.0500000000000114 \tabularnewline
37 & 102.59 & 103.82 & -1.22999999999999 \tabularnewline
38 & 102.75 & 102.8 & -0.0499999999999972 \tabularnewline
39 & 102.88 & 102.96 & -0.0799999999999983 \tabularnewline
40 & 102.85 & 103.09 & -0.239999999999995 \tabularnewline
41 & 103.16 & 103.06 & 0.100000000000009 \tabularnewline
42 & 103.17 & 103.37 & -0.199999999999989 \tabularnewline
43 & 103.04 & 103.38 & -0.339999999999989 \tabularnewline
44 & 103.09 & 103.25 & -0.159999999999997 \tabularnewline
45 & 103.12 & 103.3 & -0.179999999999993 \tabularnewline
46 & 103.68 & 103.33 & 0.350000000000009 \tabularnewline
47 & 103.75 & 103.89 & -0.140000000000001 \tabularnewline
48 & 103.81 & 103.96 & -0.149999999999991 \tabularnewline
49 & 104.23 & 104.02 & 0.210000000000008 \tabularnewline
50 & 104.58 & 104.44 & 0.140000000000001 \tabularnewline
51 & 104.76 & 104.79 & -0.0299999999999869 \tabularnewline
52 & 104.83 & 104.97 & -0.140000000000001 \tabularnewline
53 & 104.88 & 105.04 & -0.159999999999997 \tabularnewline
54 & 105.7 & 105.09 & 0.610000000000014 \tabularnewline
55 & 105.34 & 105.91 & -0.569999999999993 \tabularnewline
56 & 105.57 & 105.55 & 0.019999999999996 \tabularnewline
57 & 105.66 & 105.78 & -0.11999999999999 \tabularnewline
58 & 105.7 & 105.87 & -0.169999999999987 \tabularnewline
59 & 105.76 & 105.91 & -0.149999999999991 \tabularnewline
60 & 105.76 & 105.97 & -0.209999999999994 \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=2

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]t[/C][C]Observed[/C][C]Fitted[/C][C]Residuals[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]3[/C][C]91.35[/C][C]91.31[/C][C]0.0400000000000063[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]4[/C][C]91.52[/C][C]91.56[/C][C]-0.039999999999992[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]5[/C][C]91.45[/C][C]91.73[/C][C]-0.279999999999987[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]6[/C][C]91.88[/C][C]91.66[/C][C]0.219999999999999[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]7[/C][C]91.9[/C][C]92.09[/C][C]-0.189999999999984[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]8[/C][C]91.92[/C][C]92.11[/C][C]-0.189999999999998[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]9[/C][C]92[/C][C]92.13[/C][C]-0.129999999999995[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]10[/C][C]92[/C][C]92.21[/C][C]-0.209999999999994[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]11[/C][C]92.2[/C][C]92.21[/C][C]-0.00999999999999091[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]12[/C][C]92.34[/C][C]92.41[/C][C]-0.0699999999999932[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]13[/C][C]92.29[/C][C]92.55[/C][C]-0.259999999999991[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]14[/C][C]92.37[/C][C]92.5[/C][C]-0.129999999999995[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]15[/C][C]92.58[/C][C]92.58[/C][C]0[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]16[/C][C]92.73[/C][C]92.79[/C][C]-0.0599999999999881[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]17[/C][C]92.78[/C][C]92.94[/C][C]-0.159999999999997[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]18[/C][C]92.82[/C][C]92.99[/C][C]-0.170000000000002[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]19[/C][C]92.82[/C][C]93.03[/C][C]-0.209999999999994[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]20[/C][C]92.99[/C][C]93.03[/C][C]-0.039999999999992[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]21[/C][C]93.18[/C][C]93.2[/C][C]-0.0199999999999818[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]22[/C][C]93.88[/C][C]93.39[/C][C]0.489999999999995[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]23[/C][C]94.29[/C][C]94.09[/C][C]0.200000000000017[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]24[/C][C]94.04[/C][C]94.5[/C][C]-0.459999999999994[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]25[/C][C]93.6[/C][C]94.25[/C][C]-0.650000000000006[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]26[/C][C]95.99[/C][C]93.81[/C][C]2.18000000000001[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]27[/C][C]98.1[/C][C]96.2[/C][C]1.90000000000001[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]28[/C][C]98.7[/C][C]98.31[/C][C]0.390000000000015[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]29[/C][C]99.31[/C][C]98.91[/C][C]0.400000000000006[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]30[/C][C]99.58[/C][C]99.52[/C][C]0.0600000000000023[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]31[/C][C]99.68[/C][C]99.79[/C][C]-0.109999999999985[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]32[/C][C]102.38[/C][C]99.89[/C][C]2.48999999999999[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]33[/C][C]102.69[/C][C]102.59[/C][C]0.100000000000009[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]34[/C][C]103.01[/C][C]102.9[/C][C]0.110000000000014[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]35[/C][C]103.35[/C][C]103.22[/C][C]0.129999999999995[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]36[/C][C]103.61[/C][C]103.56[/C][C]0.0500000000000114[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]37[/C][C]102.59[/C][C]103.82[/C][C]-1.22999999999999[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]38[/C][C]102.75[/C][C]102.8[/C][C]-0.0499999999999972[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]39[/C][C]102.88[/C][C]102.96[/C][C]-0.0799999999999983[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]40[/C][C]102.85[/C][C]103.09[/C][C]-0.239999999999995[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]41[/C][C]103.16[/C][C]103.06[/C][C]0.100000000000009[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]42[/C][C]103.17[/C][C]103.37[/C][C]-0.199999999999989[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]43[/C][C]103.04[/C][C]103.38[/C][C]-0.339999999999989[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]44[/C][C]103.09[/C][C]103.25[/C][C]-0.159999999999997[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]45[/C][C]103.12[/C][C]103.3[/C][C]-0.179999999999993[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]46[/C][C]103.68[/C][C]103.33[/C][C]0.350000000000009[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]47[/C][C]103.75[/C][C]103.89[/C][C]-0.140000000000001[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]48[/C][C]103.81[/C][C]103.96[/C][C]-0.149999999999991[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]49[/C][C]104.23[/C][C]104.02[/C][C]0.210000000000008[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]50[/C][C]104.58[/C][C]104.44[/C][C]0.140000000000001[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]51[/C][C]104.76[/C][C]104.79[/C][C]-0.0299999999999869[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]52[/C][C]104.83[/C][C]104.97[/C][C]-0.140000000000001[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]53[/C][C]104.88[/C][C]105.04[/C][C]-0.159999999999997[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]54[/C][C]105.7[/C][C]105.09[/C][C]0.610000000000014[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]55[/C][C]105.34[/C][C]105.91[/C][C]-0.569999999999993[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]56[/C][C]105.57[/C][C]105.55[/C][C]0.019999999999996[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]57[/C][C]105.66[/C][C]105.78[/C][C]-0.11999999999999[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]58[/C][C]105.7[/C][C]105.87[/C][C]-0.169999999999987[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]59[/C][C]105.76[/C][C]105.91[/C][C]-0.149999999999991[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]60[/C][C]105.76[/C][C]105.97[/C][C]-0.209999999999994[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=2

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=2

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tObservedFittedResiduals
391.3591.310.0400000000000063
491.5291.56-0.039999999999992
591.4591.73-0.279999999999987
691.8891.660.219999999999999
791.992.09-0.189999999999984
891.9292.11-0.189999999999998
99292.13-0.129999999999995
109292.21-0.209999999999994
1192.292.21-0.00999999999999091
1292.3492.41-0.0699999999999932
1392.2992.55-0.259999999999991
1492.3792.5-0.129999999999995
1592.5892.580
1692.7392.79-0.0599999999999881
1792.7892.94-0.159999999999997
1892.8292.99-0.170000000000002
1992.8293.03-0.209999999999994
2092.9993.03-0.039999999999992
2193.1893.2-0.0199999999999818
2293.8893.390.489999999999995
2394.2994.090.200000000000017
2494.0494.5-0.459999999999994
2593.694.25-0.650000000000006
2695.9993.812.18000000000001
2798.196.21.90000000000001
2898.798.310.390000000000015
2999.3198.910.400000000000006
3099.5899.520.0600000000000023
3199.6899.79-0.109999999999985
32102.3899.892.48999999999999
33102.69102.590.100000000000009
34103.01102.90.110000000000014
35103.35103.220.129999999999995
36103.61103.560.0500000000000114
37102.59103.82-1.22999999999999
38102.75102.8-0.0499999999999972
39102.88102.96-0.0799999999999983
40102.85103.09-0.239999999999995
41103.16103.060.100000000000009
42103.17103.37-0.199999999999989
43103.04103.38-0.339999999999989
44103.09103.25-0.159999999999997
45103.12103.3-0.179999999999993
46103.68103.330.350000000000009
47103.75103.89-0.140000000000001
48103.81103.96-0.149999999999991
49104.23104.020.210000000000008
50104.58104.440.140000000000001
51104.76104.79-0.0299999999999869
52104.83104.97-0.140000000000001
53104.88105.04-0.159999999999997
54105.7105.090.610000000000014
55105.34105.91-0.569999999999993
56105.57105.550.019999999999996
57105.66105.78-0.11999999999999
58105.7105.87-0.169999999999987
59105.76105.91-0.149999999999991
60105.76105.97-0.209999999999994







Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
61105.97104.835988167424107.104011832576
62106.18104.57626508648107.78373491352
63106.39104.425833889595108.354166110405
64106.6104.331976334849108.868023665151
65106.81104.274272455072109.345727544928
66107.02104.242249647911109.797750352089
67107.23104.2296867072110.2303132928
68107.44104.23253017296110.64746982704
69107.65104.247964502273111.052035497727
70107.86104.273939715479111.446060284521
71108.07104.308908243523111.831091756477
72108.28104.351667779189112.208332220811

\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing \tabularnewline
t & Forecast & 95% Lower Bound & 95% Upper Bound \tabularnewline
61 & 105.97 & 104.835988167424 & 107.104011832576 \tabularnewline
62 & 106.18 & 104.57626508648 & 107.78373491352 \tabularnewline
63 & 106.39 & 104.425833889595 & 108.354166110405 \tabularnewline
64 & 106.6 & 104.331976334849 & 108.868023665151 \tabularnewline
65 & 106.81 & 104.274272455072 & 109.345727544928 \tabularnewline
66 & 107.02 & 104.242249647911 & 109.797750352089 \tabularnewline
67 & 107.23 & 104.2296867072 & 110.2303132928 \tabularnewline
68 & 107.44 & 104.23253017296 & 110.64746982704 \tabularnewline
69 & 107.65 & 104.247964502273 & 111.052035497727 \tabularnewline
70 & 107.86 & 104.273939715479 & 111.446060284521 \tabularnewline
71 & 108.07 & 104.308908243523 & 111.831091756477 \tabularnewline
72 & 108.28 & 104.351667779189 & 112.208332220811 \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=3

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]t[/C][C]Forecast[/C][C]95% Lower Bound[/C][C]95% Upper Bound[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]61[/C][C]105.97[/C][C]104.835988167424[/C][C]107.104011832576[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]62[/C][C]106.18[/C][C]104.57626508648[/C][C]107.78373491352[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]63[/C][C]106.39[/C][C]104.425833889595[/C][C]108.354166110405[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]64[/C][C]106.6[/C][C]104.331976334849[/C][C]108.868023665151[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]65[/C][C]106.81[/C][C]104.274272455072[/C][C]109.345727544928[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]66[/C][C]107.02[/C][C]104.242249647911[/C][C]109.797750352089[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]67[/C][C]107.23[/C][C]104.2296867072[/C][C]110.2303132928[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]68[/C][C]107.44[/C][C]104.23253017296[/C][C]110.64746982704[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]69[/C][C]107.65[/C][C]104.247964502273[/C][C]111.052035497727[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]70[/C][C]107.86[/C][C]104.273939715479[/C][C]111.446060284521[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]71[/C][C]108.07[/C][C]104.308908243523[/C][C]111.831091756477[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]72[/C][C]108.28[/C][C]104.351667779189[/C][C]112.208332220811[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=3

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=&T=3

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  

The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing
tForecast95% Lower Bound95% Upper Bound
61105.97104.835988167424107.104011832576
62106.18104.57626508648107.78373491352
63106.39104.425833889595108.354166110405
64106.6104.331976334849108.868023665151
65106.81104.274272455072109.345727544928
66107.02104.242249647911109.797750352089
67107.23104.2296867072110.2303132928
68107.44104.23253017296110.64746982704
69107.65104.247964502273111.052035497727
70107.86104.273939715479111.446060284521
71108.07104.308908243523111.831091756477
72108.28104.351667779189112.208332220811



Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Double ; par3 = additive ;
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Double ; par3 = additive ;
R code (references can be found in the software module):
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
nx <- length(x)
nxmK <- nx - K
x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
fit
myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
bitmap(file='test1.png')
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
np <- length(p[,1])
plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(myresid)
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nxmK) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:np) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')