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Description of Statistical Computation

Author's title

Author*Unverified author*
R Software Modulerwasp_exponentialsmoothing.wasp
Title produced by softwareExponential Smoothing
Date of computationThu, 07 Jan 2016 15:35:58 +0000
Cite this page as followsStatistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?v=date/2016/Jan/07/t1452181015za4irjzmutc9ne9.htm/, Retrieved Sun, 28 Apr 2024 03:50:45 +0000
Statistical Computations at FreeStatistics.org, Office for Research Development and Education, URL https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=287384, Retrieved Sun, 28 Apr 2024 03:50:45 +0000
QR Codes:

Original text written by user:
IsPrivate?No (this computation is public)
User-defined keywords
Estimated Impact114

Tree of Dependent Computations

Family? (F = Feedback message, R = changed R code, M = changed R Module, P = changed Parameters, D = changed Data)
-     [Exponential Smoothing] [] [2015-11-29 14:31:54] [0a8ae62f54e6555b070bda054921d3ba]
- R PD    [Exponential Smoothing] [] [2016-01-07 15:35:58] [d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e] [Current]
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Dataset

Dataseries X:
Download CSV
Histogram
Boxplots 
104.93
105.68
106.93
107.29
107.25
106.74
106.44
106.6
107.26
107.35
107.22
106.99
106.87
107.68
108.9
109.48
109.57
109.03
109.58
109.76
110.15
110.2
109.86
109.58
109.52
110.35
111.61
112.06
111.9
111.36
112.09
112.24
112.7
113.36
112.9
112.74
112.7
113.66
114.87
114.97
115
114.57
115.54
115.39
115.46
115.13
114.56
114.62
114.37
114.86
115.82
116.35
115.95
115.64
116.58
116.5
116.48
116.34
115.65
115.42

Tables (Output of Computation)





Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time1 seconds
R Server'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ fisher.wessa.net
R Engine error message
Error in HoltWinters(x, seasonal = par3) : optimization failure
Execution halted


\begin{tabular}{lllllllll}
\hline
Summary of computational transaction \tabularnewline
Raw Input & view raw input (R code)  \tabularnewline
Raw Output & view raw output of R engine  \tabularnewline
Computing time & 1 seconds \tabularnewline
R Server & 'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ fisher.wessa.net \tabularnewline
R Engine error message & 
Error in HoltWinters(x, seasonal = par3) : optimization failure
Execution halted

 \tabularnewline
\hline
\end{tabular}
%Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=287384&T=0

[TABLE]
[ROW][C]Summary of computational transaction[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Input[/C][C]view raw input (R code) [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Raw Output[/C][C]view raw output of R engine [/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]Computing time[/C][C]1 seconds[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]R Server[/C][C]'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ fisher.wessa.net[/C][/ROW]
[ROW][C]R Engine error message[/C][C]
Error in HoltWinters(x, seasonal = par3) : optimization failure
Execution halted

[/C][/ROW]
[/TABLE]
Source: https://freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=287384&T=0

Globally Unique Identifier (entire table): ba.freestatistics.org/blog/index.php?pk=287384&T=0

As an alternative you can also use a QR Code:  
QR Code


The GUIDs for individual cells are displayed in the table below:

Summary of computational transaction
Raw Inputview raw input (R code)
Raw Outputview raw output of R engine
Computing time1 seconds
R Server'Sir Ronald Aylmer Fisher' @ fisher.wessa.net
R Engine error message
Error in HoltWinters(x, seasonal = par3) : optimization failure
Execution halted


Figures (Output of Computation)

Input Parameters & R Code

Parameters (Session):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Triple ; par3 = additive ;
Parameters (R input):
par1 = 12 ; par2 = Triple ; par3 = additive ;
R code (references can be found in the software module):
par1 <- as.numeric(par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') K <- 1
if (par2 == 'Double') K <- 2
if (par2 == 'Triple') K <- par1
nx <- length(x)
nxmK <- nx - K
x <- ts(x, frequency = par1)
if (par2 == 'Single') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F, beta=F)
if (par2 == 'Double') fit <- HoltWinters(x, gamma=F)
if (par2 == 'Triple') fit <- HoltWinters(x, seasonal=par3)
fit
myresid <- x - fit$fitted[,'xhat']
bitmap(file='test1.png')
op <- par(mfrow=c(2,1))
plot(fit,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Interpolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
plot(myresid,ylab='Residuals',main='Interpolation Prediction Errors')
par(op)
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test2.png')
p <- predict(fit, par1, prediction.interval=TRUE)
np <- length(p[,1])
plot(fit,p,ylab='Observed (black) / Fitted (red)',main='Extrapolation Fit of Exponential Smoothing')
dev.off()
bitmap(file='test3.png')
op <- par(mfrow = c(2,2))
acf(as.numeric(myresid),lag.max = nx/2,main='Residual ACF')
spectrum(myresid,main='Residals Periodogram')
cpgram(myresid,main='Residal Cumulative Periodogram')
qqnorm(myresid,main='Residual Normal QQ Plot')
qqline(myresid)
par(op)
dev.off()
load(file='createtable')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Estimated Parameters of Exponential Smoothing',2,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Parameter',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Value',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'alpha',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$alpha)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'beta',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$beta)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'gamma',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,fit$gamma)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Interpolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Observed',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Fitted',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Residuals',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:nxmK) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,i+K,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,x[i+K])
a<-table.element(a,fit$fitted[i,'xhat'])
a<-table.element(a,myresid[i])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable1.tab')
a<-table.start()
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'Extrapolation Forecasts of Exponential Smoothing',4,TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,'t',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'Forecast',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Lower Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,'95% Upper Bound',header=TRUE)
a<-table.row.end(a)
for (i in 1:np) {
a<-table.row.start(a)
a<-table.element(a,nx+i,header=TRUE)
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'fit'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'lwr'])
a<-table.element(a,p[i,'upr'])
a<-table.row.end(a)
}
a<-table.end(a)
table.save(a,file='mytable2.tab')